January 26ththVenezuela’s Supreme Court approved the banishment of Maria Colina Machado from public office, fulfilling almost all expectations.
Machado has been the opposition’s front-runner since winning the Oct. 22 primary vote.n.d.is organized by Platforma Unitaria, an alliance of major political parties.
The Supreme Court argued that Machado participated in corrupt activities while the United States and opposition parties seized Venezuela’s overseas assets. that she represented Panama as a foreign power in the Organization of American States; And she called for economic sanctions and military invasion of her country, she said.
Machado’s team said the ban did not exist because she was not notified directly. This process is also unconstitutional because it was conducted by the Inspector General. She was never tried in court on these charges.
The results weren’t surprising, but it’s not clear what will happen next. The US State Department issued a statement saying it was reviewing its sanctions policy in response to the Supreme Court’s ruling.
I decided to interview Luis Vicente Leon, the president of the polling company Datanalysis. I first met him in December, where he told me we were heading towards this outcome. Mind you, he wasn’t the only one who said this.
Leon’s company does polls, but since the polls aren’t open to the public, you can already expect them to be more objective. All the candidates in this country have published numbers that are favorable to them, showing a complete lack of support for their rivals.
Does this mean sanctions?
“To be honest, the U.S. government knew full well that something like this was going to happen. It was obvious,” Leon says.
For Leon, this was a reasonable outcome. “Recognizing a candidate who promises retaliation posed a huge risk for President Nicolas Maduro and his government, especially since she is the front-runner and unites the main opposition coalition. On the other hand, maintaining power has a limited cost.”
Machado represents a hard-line opposition faction and comes from a wealthy family whose steel business was confiscated by former President Hugo Chávez.She embodies much of her resentment towards her present Chavesta She is expected to persecute members of the government.
I ask how the US government can respond given that it has said it is reviewing its sanctions policy. “The Biden administration has said from the beginning that they were starting to lift sanctions because they were ineffective,” Juan Gonzalez said. “They also wanted to punish the entire population without actually harming those at the top.” To do.”
Juan González is the Biden administration’s chief negotiator for Venezuela, serving as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Western Hemisphere Affairs at the NSC.
In a new Congressional Research Service report on January 16th.ththis point was acknowledged, stating that US financial and sectoral sanctions “failed to oust President Maduro and contributed to the country’s economic crisis that has displaced 7.7 million Venezuelans.”
Returning to Leon, he says the U.S. government needs to tread carefully. “There are also steps that President Maduro could take if the U.S. government attacks with sanctions. He could withdraw from the immigration deal that will be a cornerstone for Biden in the upcoming election. In terms of political implications, this could mean It’s more important than the oil market.”
Biden has been embroiled in a dispute over the southern border as the situation in Venezuela continues to develop, and has vowed to “close” the southern border if given the authority by Congress.
“Sanctions are also de-Westernizing the oil industry. And we have the largest reserves in the West,” Leung claims. Chinese, Russian, Iranian, Indian, and Malaysian interests could all seek space in the vacuum created by new sanctions.
Alternatively, European and Indian companies, while friendly with the United States, have invested too much money to waste if relations between Washington DC and Caracas break down again. In 2020, they had to reluctantly accept third-party sanctions from the Trump administration.
December saw new deals involving Repsol and Shell. Morel et Prom and Eni are also participating. Venezuela’s oil ministry is reaching agreements with China and Indonesia this month.
Even North American companies, from oil giant Chevron CVX to traders and private companies such as Harry Sargent’s Global Oil Management and “Wildcat Entrepreneurs,” are piling up more stakes in Venezuelan crude. There is.
But there are also fronts on which the Biden administration could take a stand, as Leung believes. “The general license of state-run gold mining company Minerven may be revoked, putting it at risk of foreclosure by creditors, potentially triggering new individual sanctions and lifting protections for Venezuelan assets abroad. Yes. Debt restructuring will have to wait.”
“Eventually, harsh sanctions and ruptured relations will radicalize the Venezuelan government against domestic opposition.” For Leon, such a shift could even jeopardize the election itself. become.
What do you expect from the election?
Ask what happens next. There are rumors in Caracas that presidential elections will be held in July to capture an opposition party that is unprepared and unresolved. “Given recent events, we can expect an announcement regarding the elections soon,” Leon believes.
There are different approaches between Machado herself and the PU, the alliance she currently leads. “You’ll start to see some rifts between the two. First, Machado never agreed to go to the Supreme Court to challenge the ban. But she said she was under pressure from the U.S. and the opposition. received.”
In his first public appearance, Machado said he would not appeal the ban, which he claimed did not exist.At the time, the U.S. Embassy in Venezuela (currently based in Colombia) The announcement surprised everyone She was going to the Supreme Court to do just that.
“There may be another appeal. Gerald Bride, the PU’s chief negotiator, was very careful. He rejected the Supreme Court’s decision completely, but he rejected it in form, not in result.” he says.
I asked him more about what he meant. “Bride says the Barbados agreement has been partially abrogated. He did not explicitly say that Machado’s suspension should be lifted, but he did say there must be a fair system to challenge it. is in the same position as the State Department,” Leon explains.
Mr Bride also said on behalf of the PU that he would always remain committed to the electoral route. This will open the door for alternate candidates.
Based on October polls, Leon told me that the alternate candidate would be 20 percentage points behind Machado, but would still be the frontrunner.
The ban’s constitutionality may be further challenged in the Supreme Court. “But the answer is always the same, because this is not a judicial decision, it is actually a political decision.”
Another scenario is that a significant portion of the opposition party could abstain from the next presidential election. That is likely to happen if Mr. Machado does not nominate or support a second candidate. In this case, President Maduro could more easily hope for victory.
So far, Machado has said he will be the candidate, as he told CNN. This will cause the opposition coalition to split.
“What is clear is that neither the United States nor the rebels have enough influence over President Maduro to jeopardize his position,” León said as he concluded the interview. “It is hard to imagine that this government would be willing to relinquish power, especially without convincing them to negotiate an institution that would protect them in the future.”
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