A new study finds that despite near-universal public support for climate action, people systematically underestimate the efforts of their peers.
The study, published in Nature Climate Change, was based on a globally representative sample of around 130,000 people from 125 countries.
It found that 86% of people “support social norms that promote climate change” and 89% want the government to do more to combat global warming. Furthermore, 69% said they would be willing to donate 1% of their income to fight climate change.
But the paper said respondents “systematically underestimated the willingness of their fellow citizens” to act, creating a potentially difficult “perception gap.”
Carbon Brief spoke to the study authors to learn more. The questions and their answers are reproduced in full below. An abridged version of the transcript was first published in Carbon Brief’s weekly email newsletter, his DeBriefed. You can apply for free.
Carbon Brief: A survey of nearly 130,000 people in 125 countries found “nearly universal” support (86%) for climate action, with 89% wanting more support from governments. Were you surprised?
Professor Peter Andre, Professor Teodora Boneva, Professor Felix Chopra, Professor Armin Falk: In some of the countries we surveyed, we expected to see high levels of support for climate action, but a larger proportion of the population approves of pro-climate social norms and leaves central governments with no further political pressure. I was actually surprised to find out they were calling for action. It is very high in almost all countries in our sample. In 119 out of 125 countries, more than two-thirds of individuals say their people should “fight global warming.” In more than half of the countries in our sample, demands for further government action exceed 90%.
Perhaps we were swayed by the same pessimism that is prevalent all over the world. 69% of the world’s population is willing to donate 1% of their monthly income to fight global warming. The majority of people around the world are willing to pay personal costs. In fact, in 114 out of 125 countries, a majority of respondents are motivated to fight climate change. But in 110 out of 125 countries, the majority of people consider themselves to be in the minority. When asked how many people in their country are willing to contribute, most respondents believe that less than half of their countrymen would contribute.
[The figure below, taken from the new paper, shows: (top left) the share of respondents willing to contribute none, up to 1% or at least 1% of their income to tackling climate change; (top right) the same result broken down by country; (middle panel) the share believing that “people should try to fight global warming”; (lower panel) the share wanting governments to do more.]
CB: A majority (69%) said they would be willing to donate 1% of their income to fight global warming. Do you think this also applies to specific policies such as carbon taxes?
PA, TB, FC, AF: Public support for a particular policy depends on many details that needed to be extracted in a global survey. How effective is the policy? Is it perceived to be fair? Who supports the policy in public forums? cannot simply be equated with In a representative sample of the United States, we find that general demands for further political action are strongly correlated with demands for specific climate policies, such as carbon taxes on fossil fuels and regulatory limits on CO2. . including funding research into coal-fired power plant emissions and renewable energy. Overall, we believe the key conclusions are: The majority of people around the world have expressed a general willingness to contribute, at great cost, to combat climate change. This means that we can focus on how we can make the most of this widespread willingness to take the debate forward and contribute to how best to tackle the challenges posed by climate change. means.
CB: had. revival Anti-climate rhetoric from politicians and media in many countries. Do you think public opinion has changed since the 2021-22 survey?
PA, TB, FC, AF: We do not detect a clear time trend within the sample for 2021 and 2022, but we do not have data for recent months. If I had to guess, I think we don’t want to fall prey to the same pessimism again. We would expect a majority to still be in favor of climate action today, which seems consistent with more recent research. 2023 has been confirmed as the warmest calendar year in global temperature data records dating back to 1850. Our research shows that average annual temperature is strongly correlated with the proportion of people who actively support climate action. Our best guess is that support for climate action has increased, not decreased, over the past two years.
CB: We found a stronger willingness to contribute among respondents in poorer, hotter and more vulnerable countries. Why do you think wealthy people are less willing to pay for themselves?
PA, TB, FC, AF: Two possible explanations come to mind. First, rich countries remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Therefore, adaptation costs are relatively high and the required lifestyle changes may be perceived as too rapid. At the same time, richer countries are likely to be more resilient. A country’s GDP per capita reflects its economic capacity to cope with climate change. The most direct and immediate impacts are likely to be concentrated in more vulnerable countries, which have fewer resources to mitigate the negative effects of the climate crisis. However, it is important to emphasize positive messages. This means that even the richest countries in our sample have greater support for climate action. In countries in the richest quintile, the average percentage of people willing to donate 1% is 62%.
CB: You found that people systematically underestimate their peers’ willingness to contribute to climate action. Why do you think that is? And how can we change it?
PA, TB, FC, AF: The reasons for this gap in understanding may be manifold. To date, media and public debates have focused on a minority of climate change skeptics, preying on the efforts of special interest groups. Additionally, tackling climate change is difficult. People may mistakenly assume that slow progress in combating climate change is due to a widespread lack of individual commitment.
In our view, fixing this perception gap is more important than understanding its causes. Humans are (what behavioral scientists call) “conditional cooperators.” They are more likely to contribute to the common good if they believe that others are contributing as well. For this reason, a pessimistic view of the contributions of others is harmful. That could pose a significant obstacle to climate action. Therefore, we conclude in our paper:[r]Rather than aligning with the concerns of a vocal minority that opposes any form of climate action, the majority of people around the world are willing to act on climate change and expect their governments to act. You need to effectively communicate your presence. ” We hope that our research will spark debate on this topic and raise awareness about massive global support for climate action.
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