NEW DELHI: The world’s population is expected to peak this century, rising from 8.2 billion in 2024 to around 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s. After the peak, it is projected to decline, gradually declining to 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
63 countries, including China and Japan, will see their population peak before 2024, while India and the United States are among 126 countries expected to peak later this century or after 2100. Notably, one in four people live in a country whose population has already peaked.
These findings:World Population The UN’s Outlook 2024 report released on Thursday predicts that from 2022 onwards: Average life Life expectancy at birth has returned to pre-COVID levels in almost all countries and regions. After a temporary decline during the pandemic, global life expectancy will reach 73.3 years in 2024 (up 8.4 years since 1995), up from 70.9 years during the pandemic.
“If mortality rates continue to decline, the world’s life expectancy is projected to be around 77.4 years in 2054. By the late 2050s, more than half of the world’s population will be Deaths, globally The proportion of people aged 80 and over who develop the disease has increased significantly from 17% in 1995, according to the report.
By the late 2070s, the number of people aged 65 or older in the world is projected to reach 2.2 billion, surpassing the number of children (under 18 years old). By the mid-2030s, the number of people aged 80 or older is projected to reach 265 million, surpassing the number of infants (under 1 year old).
Countries that still have rapidly growing and relatively young populations are expected to see an increase in the number of people aged 65 and over over the next 30 years.
According to a press statement issued from New York, an analysis of reports prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) indicates that the world population in 2100 is expected to be 6% lower, or 700 million people lower, than projected ten years ago in the World Population Prospects 2024 report released by the UN on Thursday.
63 countries and territories, accounting for 28% of the world’s population in 2024, will see their population size peak before 2024. This category includes countries such as China, Germany, Japan and the Russian Federation, and the total population of this group is projected to decline by 14% over the next 30 years.
Forty-eight other countries, accounting for 10% of the world’s population, including Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam, are projected to reach their population peak between 2025 and 2054.
In the remaining 126 countries, including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States, populations are expected to grow until 2054 and could peak later in the century or after 2100.
Nine countries in this last group, including Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger and Somalia, are projected to experience very rapid growth, with their total population doubling between 2024 and 2054.
The report said that rapid Falling birth rate In populous countries, global population is now more likely (80%) to peak this century, compared with about a 30% probability a decade ago.
” Demographics “Birth rates have changed significantly in recent years,” said Li Junhua, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. “In some countries, fertility rates are now lower than previously expected, and some high-fertility regions are falling at a slightly faster pace. The earlier peak and decline are a hopeful sign, which could mean less overall consumption, reducing pressure on the environment from human influence,” he added.
“previous Population peak “This is due to a number of factors, including declining fertility rates in the world’s largest countries, particularly China. Globally, women are now having one less child on average than they were around 1990,” the analysis found.
The data highlights that more than half of the countries have an average of below 2.1 births per woman – below the level needed to maintain a constant population size over the long term without emigration – and that almost a fifth of countries and territories, including China, Italy, South Korea and Spain, have “very low fertility rates” – fewer than 1.4 births per woman in their lifetime.
Looking ahead, the report states that the main driver of world population growth through the mid-21st century will be the momentum generated by past growth: “The number of women aged 15-49 is projected to peak from about 2 billion in 2024 to about 2.2 billion in the late 2050s, providing the impetus for continued growth even as fertility rates per woman decline to replacement levels.” Moreover, the composition of today’s young population, a product of past growth, will account for 79% of population growth through 2054, adding about 1.4 billion people.
The analysis also shows that countries with young populations and declining fertility rates have a limited time to reap the economic benefits from a concentrated increase in their working-age population: “In almost 100 countries and territories, the working-age population (20-64 years) will grow through 2054, creating an opportunity known as the demographic dividend,” the report states. United Nations Report To seize the opportunity, countries need to invest in education, health and infrastructure, and undertake reforms that create jobs and improve government efficiency, it said, recommending.
Immigration will be the main driver of future population growth for some demographic segments: “Immigration is projected to mitigate population decline in 50 countries and territories due to persistently low fertility and ageing populations. However, in 14 countries and territories that already have extremely low fertility rates, immigration is likely to contribute to population decline through to 2054,” the report states.
The data also shows that early pregnancy remains a challenge, especially in low-income countries: in 2024, 4.7 million babies will be born to mothers under the age of 18, or about 3.5% of all babies worldwide, and about 340,000 babies will be born to girls under the age of 15, with serious implications for the health and well-being of young mothers and their children.
The UN calls for investing in the education of young people, especially girls, and raising the age at marriage and first birth in countries where these milestone events tend to occur earlier, to have a positive impact on women’s health, educational attainment and labour force participation. “Such efforts would also contribute to slowing population growth, reducing the scale of investment needed to achieve sustainable development and ensuring that no one is left behind,” the report argues.
63 countries, including China and Japan, will see their population peak before 2024, while India and the United States are among 126 countries expected to peak later this century or after 2100. Notably, one in four people live in a country whose population has already peaked.
These findings:World Population The UN’s Outlook 2024 report released on Thursday predicts that from 2022 onwards: Average life Life expectancy at birth has returned to pre-COVID levels in almost all countries and regions. After a temporary decline during the pandemic, global life expectancy will reach 73.3 years in 2024 (up 8.4 years since 1995), up from 70.9 years during the pandemic.
“If mortality rates continue to decline, the world’s life expectancy is projected to be around 77.4 years in 2054. By the late 2050s, more than half of the world’s population will be Deaths, globally The proportion of people aged 80 and over who develop the disease has increased significantly from 17% in 1995, according to the report.
By the late 2070s, the number of people aged 65 or older in the world is projected to reach 2.2 billion, surpassing the number of children (under 18 years old). By the mid-2030s, the number of people aged 80 or older is projected to reach 265 million, surpassing the number of infants (under 1 year old).
Countries that still have rapidly growing and relatively young populations are expected to see an increase in the number of people aged 65 and over over the next 30 years.
According to a press statement issued from New York, an analysis of reports prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) indicates that the world population in 2100 is expected to be 6% lower, or 700 million people lower, than projected ten years ago in the World Population Prospects 2024 report released by the UN on Thursday.
63 countries and territories, accounting for 28% of the world’s population in 2024, will see their population size peak before 2024. This category includes countries such as China, Germany, Japan and the Russian Federation, and the total population of this group is projected to decline by 14% over the next 30 years.
Forty-eight other countries, accounting for 10% of the world’s population, including Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam, are projected to reach their population peak between 2025 and 2054.
In the remaining 126 countries, including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States, populations are expected to grow until 2054 and could peak later in the century or after 2100.
Nine countries in this last group, including Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger and Somalia, are projected to experience very rapid growth, with their total population doubling between 2024 and 2054.
The report said that rapid Falling birth rate In populous countries, global population is now more likely (80%) to peak this century, compared with about a 30% probability a decade ago.
” Demographics “Birth rates have changed significantly in recent years,” said Li Junhua, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. “In some countries, fertility rates are now lower than previously expected, and some high-fertility regions are falling at a slightly faster pace. The earlier peak and decline are a hopeful sign, which could mean less overall consumption, reducing pressure on the environment from human influence,” he added.
“previous Population peak “This is due to a number of factors, including declining fertility rates in the world’s largest countries, particularly China. Globally, women are now having one less child on average than they were around 1990,” the analysis found.
The data highlights that more than half of the countries have an average of below 2.1 births per woman – below the level needed to maintain a constant population size over the long term without emigration – and that almost a fifth of countries and territories, including China, Italy, South Korea and Spain, have “very low fertility rates” – fewer than 1.4 births per woman in their lifetime.
Looking ahead, the report states that the main driver of world population growth through the mid-21st century will be the momentum generated by past growth: “The number of women aged 15-49 is projected to peak from about 2 billion in 2024 to about 2.2 billion in the late 2050s, providing the impetus for continued growth even as fertility rates per woman decline to replacement levels.” Moreover, the composition of today’s young population, a product of past growth, will account for 79% of population growth through 2054, adding about 1.4 billion people.
The analysis also shows that countries with young populations and declining fertility rates have a limited time to reap the economic benefits from a concentrated increase in their working-age population: “In almost 100 countries and territories, the working-age population (20-64 years) will grow through 2054, creating an opportunity known as the demographic dividend,” the report states. United Nations Report To seize the opportunity, countries need to invest in education, health and infrastructure, and undertake reforms that create jobs and improve government efficiency, it said, recommending.
Immigration will be the main driver of future population growth for some demographic segments: “Immigration is projected to mitigate population decline in 50 countries and territories due to persistently low fertility and ageing populations. However, in 14 countries and territories that already have extremely low fertility rates, immigration is likely to contribute to population decline through to 2054,” the report states.
The data also shows that early pregnancy remains a challenge, especially in low-income countries: in 2024, 4.7 million babies will be born to mothers under the age of 18, or about 3.5% of all babies worldwide, and about 340,000 babies will be born to girls under the age of 15, with serious implications for the health and well-being of young mothers and their children.
The UN calls for investing in the education of young people, especially girls, and raising the age at marriage and first birth in countries where these milestone events tend to occur earlier, to have a positive impact on women’s health, educational attainment and labour force participation. “Such efforts would also contribute to slowing population growth, reducing the scale of investment needed to achieve sustainable development and ensuring that no one is left behind,” the report argues.