Pledges made at COP28 to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity by 2030 are being delayed, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
According to Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the pledge made at the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference is “one of the key actions to keep alive hopes of limiting global warming to 1.5°C”, but the countries that signed it have not backed it up with policies or actions.
The IEA released a report in early 2024 showing that global renewable energy capacity grew by 50% between 2022 and 2023, followed by a new report, COP28 Renewable Energy Capacity Tripling Pledge: Tracking countries’ ambitions and identifying policies to close the gaps. It details how current plans in around 150 countries amount to just 8,000GW of installed renewable energy capacity, which is just 70% of the target amount of 11,000GW.
Although renewable energy is central to achieving international energy and climate goals, few countries have explicit installed capacity targets by 2030 in their existing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, according to the IEA report.
According to the report, official pledges under NDCs currently stand at 1,300 GW, but this represents just 12% of what is needed to achieve the global tripling target set at COP28 in Dubai.
According to the IEA Policy Review, 47 countries have explicitly planned their total renewable energy capacity by 2030, representing just over one-fifth of the global target. Another 44 countries have technology-specific targets rather than total renewable energy capacity, accounting for about two-thirds, or 29 percent, of the global target.
According to the IEA, ambition levels need to be raised for developed countries to a growth rate of 1.9 to 2.5%, while for emerging and developing countries growth rates need to be raised to 2.4 to 3.4.
According to the IEA report, countries’ ambitions for 2030 total 7,903 GW, which is 2.2 times the 2022 installed capacity that the IEA uses in its report as the benchmark for its global tripling pledge. Using this benchmark, countries would need to install about 4,250 GW of additional installed capacity to meet this global ambition.
The IEA report highlights the scope available to countries in terms of installing the capacity needed to meet their pledges, but also says most countries need to accelerate implementation towards 2030 and that key challenges that can be improved remain. These include long wait times for project permitting, insufficient investment in grid infrastructure and high financing costs.
The report suggests specific measures that specific countries can take to address these obstacles, such as streamlining permit procedures, simplifying rules, procedures and administrative structures, ensuring that relevant departments have sufficient staff and appropriate skills, investing in spatial planning to streamline zoning, and engaging local communities throughout the permit process.
Additionally, it recommends accelerating the integration of variable renewable energy. Recommendations include encouraging power system flexibility, expanding energy storage capacity, and leveraging digitalization to improve responsiveness to demand. As for reducing financing costs to increase the bankability of renewable energy projects, it suggests introducing or extending long-term policy visibility, supporting projects in the pre-development stage, and keeping prices and inflation in check.
According to the report, since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, the amount of renewable energy capacity added worldwide each year has tripled, mainly due to policy support, economies of scale and technological advances that have driven down the costs of solar and wind by more than 40% over the same period, making them fully competitive with fossil fuels. Global renewable energy capacity additions will reach approximately 560 GW in 2023, up 64% year-on-year from 2022, with China by far the largest contributor.
China’s target of 1,200 GW of solar and wind power capacity over the current decade accounts for more than 90% of the total renewable energy capacity outlined in the NDC.
“At COP28, almost 200 countries committed to tripling the world’s renewable energy generating capacity over this decade – one of the key actions to keep alive any hope of limiting global warming to 1.5°C,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
“This report makes clear that the trebling target is ambitious but achievable – but only if governments quickly translate their commitments into action plans.”
“By achieving the goals agreed at COP28, including tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030, countries around the world have a huge opportunity to accelerate progress towards more secure, affordable and sustainable energy systems.
“The IEA continues to support governments around the world in their efforts to achieve this.”
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