Finally, the transaction is completed. Those who predicted doom for the Indian alliance in Uttar Pradesh must have been deeply disappointed. The Congress and the Samajwadi Party (SP) reached the decision on seat allocation after much tension, like a good one-day cricket match. The Congress will contest 17 seats, while the rest will be contested by the SP and smaller parties. The Congress has decided to give one more seat to the SP in Madhya Pradesh. This reflects that the great old party has learned its lessons from the historic debacle of the recent parliamentary elections in the state. I would like to remind our readers that the then Congress led by Kamal Nath in Madhya Pradesh was led by SP leader Akhilesh Yadav. Despite attacking him in name-calling, the people were furious and humiliated, continuing to identify the Congress with the Bharatiya Janata Party. Janata Party (BJP). However, now that the contract has been finalized, I guess we can say that all’s well that ends well.
Why is UP an important condition?
Uttar Pradesh is an important state for parties and political organizations aiming for centrist governance. When the Bharatiya Janata Party selected Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate in 2014, he decided to run from Varanasi state in addition to Vadodara in Gujarat state. In fact, after winning both seats, he opted for Varanasi and abandoned Vadodara. Prime Minister Modi realized that it would be impossible to achieve his lifelong goal of becoming prime minister without winning a significant number of seats in Uttar Pradesh. It is no coincidence that the BJP subsequently appointed Amit Shah as election director for Uttar Pradesh.
The party ultimately won 71 out of 80 seats, while its ally Apna Dal won two seats. What surprised a few of the BJP’s supporters was the fact that just two years earlier, in the 2012 assembly polls, the party had won just 15% of the votes. But Modi Shahpea turned the tables on the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which were seen as the main players in the state at the time. In fact, there was a time when the BJP and Congress were competing for his third and his fourth place in Uttar Pradesh.
SP-BSP Alliance in 2019
The 2019 Lok Sabha elections further proved that the BJP has emerged as a formidable force and that no party is powerful enough to defeat it on its own. No wonder SP and BSP, who have always been enemies, decided to bury their differences and join hands in 2019. Both parties managed to win a combined 15 seats, but the BJP still managed to gain the largest share of the votes. The party’s vote share increased from 42% in 2014 to 49% by 2019. Since 2014, the BJP has won two consecutive assembly elections, both with overwhelming majorities, with Yogi Adityanath serving as its CM.
In this context, collaboration between SP and parliament becomes important.
Decreasing BSP
Although it ultimately lost to the Bharatiya Janata Party, there is no denying the fact that in the 2022 assembly polls, the SP recorded an astounding 32% vote share, its best performance in history. Akhilesh Yadav had tried to form a rainbow coalition with small caste-based parties, but that coalition collapsed after the elections.
BSP leader Mayawati, for some inexplicable reason, does not seem to want to take the 2024 elections seriously. Her party’s vote share has fallen significantly and she has already announced that the BSP will fight alone. It is an advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party that Mayawati does not join the Indian Alliance.
However, it would be a mistake to conclude that this SP-Congress alliance cannot match the strength of the BJP. The BJP seems to be well aware of this.
Why Bharatiya Janata Party is cautious
The BJP’s attempt to pull Jayant Chaudhary’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) away from the Indian bloc highlights this. Despite the inauguration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, the party seems to have realized that it may be difficult to repeat its performance in the last two general elections in the state. The euphoria of President Ram Mandir’s inauguration in January appears to have faded already this month.
The Bharatiya Janata Party should also recognize that enthusiasm for temples does not automatically translate into people’s voting behavior. Believers’ beliefs and voting behavior are two different things. Although one may feel grateful to the Bharatiya Janata Party for building the temple, it may be a mistake to be convinced that people will vote for the Bharatiya Janata Party.
The BJP also does not want to miss the opportunity. Two incidents are implicated in this discussion. One is that immediately after the consecration, the Bharatiya Janata Party created a window for Nitish Kumar to rejoin the NDA. This was a political party that had openly said that it had closed its doors to Nitish. Second, it announced the Bharat Ratna for former Bihar chief minister Karpoori Thakur.
Similarly, the Modi government also announced a Bharat Ratna for former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh. Singh was a peasant leader with a huge following in his Jat community. His son Ajit Singh failed to consolidate his father’s legacy and his grandson Jayant Chaudhary also fell to leading several seats in western Uttar Pradesh through RLD. Jayan Chaudhary and Akhilesh Yadav used to be good friends and were considered inseparable, but that was till Charan Singh’s Bharat Ratna. The Bharatiya Janata Party could face stiff resistance in the next election in western Uttar Pradesh, particularly in Jat-dominated areas that also have large Muslim populations.
farmers’ protest
Also, farmers are once again on the warpath. Traditionally, farmers’ struggles have had a huge impact on the region, thanks to Mahendra Singh Tikait. During the last agitation, the Modi government was forced to withdraw three contentious farm laws. However, farmers’ main demands remain unmet. They have demanded that the MSP (minimum support price) of crops be given legal guarantees and that the Swaminathan Committee’s recommendations be respected by the government. Two years ago, the Modi government set up a committee to consider this, but no final decision has been taken even after more than 35 meetings.
If the current unrest continues, it will have a negative impact on the Bharatiya Janata Party’s prospects in the region. Many may also have forgotten the Lakhimpur Kheri incident in 2021, where several farmers were mowed down by the son of a central minister but the government took no action. The million dollar question is whether Jayan will prove to be easy for the Bharatiya Janata Party to use.
Modi’s popularity remains strong, but there are challenges
Mr. Modi is the country’s most popular leader. His image as a symbol of Hindutva remains intact. He also strengthened his position as prime minister who will lead the country on a strong development trajectory.
But beyond the grand vision of winning 370 seats, remember that a decade of anti-incumbency against any government is no small matter, and no leader can afford to ignore it. It would be useful to keep it. There is unprecedented unemployment. Inflation remains high. The BJP government is well aware of this and extending free ration to 8.1 billion people highlights its concerns. In this context, the SP-Congress alliance could have made the contest a little more interesting.
(Ashutosh is the author of ‘Hindu Rashtra’ and editor of satyahindi.com.)
Disclaimer: These are the author’s personal opinions.