When China’s political elite gathers for two meetings next week, many will focus on how China views the US presidential election and the future of bilateral relations.
In China, both Biden and Trump have the same strategic stance toward China, just different tactics, and neither candidate will bring reassurance to China or change the direction of U.S.-China relations. This view is widespread.
02:03
Blinken and Qin Gang agree to continue talks after ‘constructive’ US-China talks in Beijing
Blinken and Qin Gang agree to continue talks after ‘constructive’ US-China talks in Beijing
Although the annual meetings of China’s National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference primarily focus on domestic issues, they also serve as forums for the Chinese government to express its positions on foreign affairs.
Pan Zhongying, chair professor of international political economy at Sichuan University, said Chinese officials were likely to avoid questions about their opinions on the two U.S. presidential candidates during the two sessions.
He said the U.S. presidential election poses a “dilemma” for Beijing, as betting on Biden’s re-election is “very risky” given Trump’s momentum, but he said Trump’s hardline stance is “very risky”. Considering this, he added, it is difficult to expect a favorable outcome from Trump’s victory. Stand up to China.
“This is a really difficult problem to deal with,” he said.
He Jun, a senior researcher at Unbound, an independent think tank based in Beijing, said the election results may not change the fundamental factors affecting Sino-US relations.
“The fundamental situation of China-US relations in a fierce geopolitical game will not change, and the United States will not change its position of viewing China as a long-term strategic competitor,” he said.
President Trump called China a strategic “compete” in 2017. Biden later echoed this sentiment, calling China a “threat to slow down” and Washington’s “intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, economic, diplomatic, military, and military realignment.” He decided that he was his only competitor. The technical ability to make it happen. ”
The Biden administration also left in place Trump-era tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods, rallied U.S. allies to tighten technology controls over China, and increased military presence on China’s doorstep in the Indo-Pacific. was built.
If reelected, Biden is likely to continue refining the systemic framework for competing with China, said Sun Chenghao, director of the U.S.-EU program at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security Strategy.
Speaking at a seminar in Tsinghua in January, Son said relations between the United States and the EU were in a “honeymoon” period and could be extended for at least another four years if Biden wins. In such a situation, Washington and Brussels would most likely focus their foreign policy cooperation on dealing with China, it added.
Biden policy document suggests there is no end to US trade war with China
Biden policy document suggests there is no end to US trade war with China
But if President Trump retakes the White House, he said Republicans are likely to promote domestic investment and increase technology barriers while promoting China as a threat. Son added that the communication channels between China and the United States may also become unstable if Trump becomes president for a second term.
Sun added that President Trump may continue to show interest in some bilateral cooperation channels established under the Biden administration, including on fentanyl.
“I think it depends on the specific area and issue,” he said in an interview with the Post. “I can’t say that if the Republicans were in power, all the mechanisms would go away.”
Lu Xiang, an expert on U.S.-China relations at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also said Chinese officials were unlikely to comment on the U.S. presidential election during either session.
“China has always been firmly committed to non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, including the United States,” he said.
He said the Chinese government may reaffirm its long-standing position on bilateral relations.
“The Chinese side resolutely expresses its hope and efforts towards building constructive and stable China-US relations,” he said.
President Trump says he will reimpose tariffs on China if re-elected in November
President Trump says he will reimpose tariffs on China if re-elected in November
Under an agreement reached at the Xi-Biden summit in San Francisco in November, the U.S. and China will set up working groups focused on climate and drugs, after a hiatus of more than December. High-level military talks have resumed. one year.
But the two countries remain at odds over a range of issues, from Taiwan and the South China Sea to the war in Ukraine, trade and technology.
CASS’s Lu said the Biden administration is preoccupied with issues such as the election, immigration, inflation, Ukraine and the Middle East, and there is little chance that recent communication between China and Washington will yield any results. He showed his perspective.
He said he expected Chinese authorities to focus on “scenario management” to prepare for various developments in the U.S. presidential election.
“I think there’s a lot of toolkit out there,” Lu said.
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US and China work together to combat global fentanyl trade
US and China work together to combat global fentanyl trade
Zu Feng, executive dean of Nanjing University’s School of International Studies, said China remains in a “wait-and-see” mode regarding the election.
He said that during the two meetings, China is likely to continue its stance of actively managing bilateral relations, improving cooperation and deepening practical exchanges.
He added that the Chinese government would likely emphasize its “uncompromising” position towards Taiwan.
The Chinese government considers the island to be part of China and says it can reunify it by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, but the United States opposes any attempt to seize the self-governing island by force and is committed to providing arms.
Zhu said China’s overall policy framework for relations with the United States has already been basically formed, including seeking further cooperation and defending its own interests and principles.
“The basic policy elements will remain unchanged and will be further iterated and developed over the course of the two sessions,” he said.
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its third year and conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, Beijing is promoting itself as a trusted actor in global affairs.
At last month’s Munich Security Conference, where the prevailing view was that the United States would withdraw from the international stage under the Trump administration, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that no matter how the world changes, China remains committed to “stability.” He said that it will be a powerful force for the future.
He delivered the same message in talks with European leaders on the sidelines of the conference and during visits to Spain and France.
Wang Wen, dean of Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China, said he expected China to elaborate on this position at the foreign minister’s press conference during both sessions.
“The world is currently in the most turbulent and tense phase perhaps since World War II,” he added.
Unbound’s he noted that the current geopolitical situation is very turbulent and said this year’s two sessions are likely to reflect that situation more than in previous years.
“China is expected to continue to express its position of peace and stability to the world and clarify its principles.”