The research team, which included Burgess, Marshall, two graduate students from C-SEF, and researchers from Vanderbilt University, used logistic regression, machine learning models, and Electoral College simulations to determine how voters' views on climate change can be measured. We used several techniques to assess how this influenced our choices. There you can turn on or off the role of climate change. Their conclusion is that Republicans could have won at least a 3% swing in the popular vote, which almost certainly would have been enough to win the White House in 2020.
The researchers found that personal views on climate change were one of the strongest predictors of voting behavior in 2020, especially among independents. Not surprisingly, we found that a majority of Democrats and independents are concerned about climate change. And many young moderate Republicans also see climate change as an important issue, with a quarter of Republicans who think climate change is “very important” voting for President Biden in 2020.
Such widespread concern about climate change clearly favors Democrats at the moment. Recent polls show a 26-point lead over Republicans on this issue, a larger lead than on any other topic of contention between the two parties. Even though not all of the Democratic Party's climate change policies are necessarily popular, voters across a wide range of political persuasions believe that the Democratic Party is more capable of finding solutions and implementing policies to address the problems posed by climate change. seems to consider it superior.
While the issue of climate change strongly predicts who people will vote for in 2020, it is not the top concern among voters overall. Less than 5% of adults cite climate change as their most important issue. More pressing issues include issues that affect people's daily lives, such as the economy, health care, education, and crime.