The world is on the verge of a climate abyss, responding to a Guardian investigation that found hundreds of the world’s leading climate experts expect global warming to rise sharply, exceeding the international target of 1.5 degrees. The United Nations has warned that
A series of leading climate change experts reacted to the findings, expressing deep despair as scientists called for urgent and drastic action to stop burning fossil fuels and save millions of lives and livelihoods. He said that this must be a new alarm bell calling for action. While some say the 1.5°C target is still on the horizon, it is still not inevitable if extraordinary changes in the pace of climate action can be achieved.
The Guardian has obtained the views of around 400 senior authors of the report by the prestigious Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Almost 80% expected catastrophic levels of heating to rise at least 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but only 6% thought it would stay within the 1.5°C limit. Many expressed personal distress over the lack of climate action.
“The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is a step behind,” said António Guterres, the official spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General. “The fight to maintain 1.5 degrees Celsius will be won or lost in the 2020s, under the watchful eye of today’s politicians and industry leaders. They know we are on the brink of an abyss. The science is clear, and so are the world’s scientists: The stakes for all of humanity could not be higher.”
Alok Sharma, chair of the 2021 Cop26 climate summit, said: “The Guardian’s findings suggest that governments should stop deciding the future and do more to deliver on the commitments they have already made on climate change. “This should be another wake-up call for a sense of urgency.” ” He said world leaders needed to deliver on and deliver on the commitments made at Cop28 in December to transition away from fossil fuels.
UN Climate Change Chief Christiana Figueres, who oversaw the landmark 2015 Paris climate agreement that adopted the 1.5°C target, said: They tell us where we are, but it’s up to us to decide what this moment demands of us. [to] Turn the seemingly impossible into the new normal. ”
She said the world was on the brink of a positive social transition away from fossil fuels. “It doesn’t mean a utopian future – we know too much climate change is already built into the system – but very big positive changes are coming. Even if you exceed it, the world will not be decided.”
The 1.5°C target was originally proposed by the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis).Fatumanaba Paolelei Rutel, Chairman of Aosis, said: “As temperatures rise, our islands are literally sinking. The lack of climate ambition by major powers is forcing our state into the reality of catastrophic losses. It is. [Guardian] This report should serve as a wake-up call to the world. ”
“It’s good to see that the experts who monitor climate change most closely share the fear of government inaction,” said Mohamed Addou of Power Shift Africa. Those of us living in countries facing the worst effects of the climate crisis feel the same way. My country, Kenya, is facing its worst drought in 40 years, with devastating floods killing hundreds of people last week. I hope our leaders have the same sense of crisis as climate scientists. ”
Young climate activists around the world also shared the concerns of climate experts. “Breaking through the 1.5C guardrail will be a death sentence for millions of people in the Global South,” said Vanessa Nakate of Rise Up Movement Uganda. “No one will be safe unless we take immediate action.”
Speaking on Fridays for Future India, Disha Ravi spoke about the dire effects of India’s recent heat wave, saying, “Complacency among leaders is killing people. That’s not to say it’s not possible, but it will take real determination and action from those in power to avoid it.”
Policy experts, economists and business leaders were dissatisfied with the Guardian’s findings and called for urgent change. Rachel Kyte, professor of climate policy practice at the University of Oxford, said: We need… innovations in democracy to give scientists the politics they deserve. ”
Renowned climate economist Nicholas Stern said: “The Guardian’s results send a message from scientists that world leaders lack confidence in taking the necessary actions to avoid climate catastrophe.” ” he said. It is never too late for political leaders to act, but the scale and pace of change must be large and rapid. ”
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Helen Clarkson, chief executive of the Climate Group, which runs a network of 500 multinational companies, said: “The Guardian’s research is a stark reminder of the gap between climate targets and action.” said.
Respondents to the Guardian’s survey identified a lack of political will as the single biggest barrier to tackling climate change. Harjeet Singh of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative said: “For decades, governments, especially in rich countries, have consistently prioritized the interests of the fossil fuel industry over the welfare of their citizens. The worst outcomes can be avoided. Time is short, but we need urgent and innovative policies that prioritize the well-being of people and planet over profit.”
Some politicians supported calls for urgent action. British Green Party MP Caroline Lucas said: ‘The world’s leading scientists are running out of words to explain the severity of the climate emergency we face. We need to treat this catastrophic threat with the seriousness and urgency it requires.”
Ed Miliband, the UK’s shadow climate change secretary, said: That’s why governments around the world need to maximize climate action, not backtrack. ”
In the United States, Representative Chrissy Houlahan said:[The Guardian report] We all need more urgency in Congress to act quickly and in a bipartisan manner. Bas Eickhout, member of the European Parliament’s Green Party, said: “I understand the desperation of scientists. But giving up is not an option for us.”
Additional reporting by Nina Lakhani, Helena Horton, Oliver Milman, and Lisa O’Carroll.