The latest Meredith poll, conducted January 26-31, 2024, asked North Carolina voters their preferences and policy issues (distracted driving, medical marijuana, casino gambling) in the March 5 primary. , asked about political polarization, etc.
Highlights of the Meredith poll results include: For complete results, Complete report.
Primary and general election priorities
republican presidential primary
Former President Donald Trump has a wide lead over former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (72% to 20%). Although Haley is competing with Trump among independent voters who have indicated they intend to vote in the Republican primary (44% for Haley, 47% for Trump), she appears to be a Republican among all demographic groups. Trump is the overwhelming favorite among the people.
“According to the Meredith Poll, President Trump’s lead in North Carolina appears to have remained very stable since the last administration. Even though Republicans have withdrawn from the race, Nikki Haley has momentum in the state. It doesn’t seem like it,” said Meredith Polling Director David McLennan.
Republican gubernatorial primary
As early voting begins with less than two weeks and a month until primary election day, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson continues to maintain a significant lead over his Republican challenger for his party’s gubernatorial nomination. Just over a third (34%) of likely Republican primary voters say they support Robinson. No other candidate has received more than 9% of the vote in the Republican primary, including Bill Graham, who is heavily promoting across the state. However, a plurality (42%) of similar primary voters said they were undecided.
“Votes in the North Carolina primary are just around the corner, and Mark Robinson has a significant lead, but many Republican voters are undecided. It looks like we’re getting pretty late in the game,” McLennan said. “However, the large number of undecided voters this late in the campaign is particularly concerning for the Robinson campaign heading into the general election.”
Democratic gubernatorial primary
Attorney General Josh Stein maintains a comfortable lead (31% to 4%) over Mike Morgan in the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. A majority of Democratic primary voters (51%) say they are undecided with just a few weeks left until the election, but Mr. Morgan has yet to convince many of them that he is an alternative to Mr. Stein. do not have.
“It’s hard to see anyone running a competitive race against Josh Stein in this field. His fundraising leads, name recognition, and early support from Gov. Roy Cooper make it easy for him to win.” That’s going to be a certainty,” McLennan said.
Main expectations
The high number of undecided voters in both the Democratic and Republican samples indicates that many North Carolina voters are simply not focused on state politics at this time. This is not unusual in situations where relatively few voters turn out to vote in primary elections. The fact that neither primary campaign is very competitive may mean that primary election turnout is lower than average.
President Trump vs. President Biden
It’s too early to survey voters about how Trump and Biden will face off in the 2024 general election, but Donald Trump has a lead over Joe Biden (44% to 39%). The contest for the state’s 16 electoral votes could still be highly volatile, with 12% of respondents saying they would vote for another candidate and just 4% saying they were undecided. .
Biden and Trump’s strengths lie in areas of great predictability. Biden has the strongest advantage in urban areas and among liberal, educated voters. President Trump has performed well in rural areas and among people with low levels of education. Obviously, Trump does very well with people who identify as conservatives. What appears to be hurting Biden in this matchup is the narrow gender gap (4 points). Opinion polls in other states show Biden leading in support among women. Additionally, Biden trails Trump slightly among independent voters, an important group, especially given the growing size of this group.
“Given the history of recent presidential elections in North Carolina, I expect this election to be a close contest between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden,” McLennan said. “What will happen over the next nine months that will affect the outcome, including former President Trump’s legal status and whether any third-party candidates have substantial support among voters in North Carolina.” There are many questions.”
Robinson vs. Stein matchup
The Meredith poll asked respondents to consider the possibility that Democrat Josh Stein and Republican Mark Robinson would face off for governor in the general election. Nearly one in five voters said they were undecided, but there was a slight nod for Stein in the matchup against Robinson (39% to 35%).
Mr. Stein’s narrow lead comes from his advantage over independent voters and voters who identify as politically moderate. Mr. Robinson predictably has a lot of support from conservative voters, but Mr. Stein has more support from liberal voters. Another somewhat surprising finding is that Stein receives more support from men and women than Robinson.
“Although the practice of voting for one party’s candidate and another party’s candidate has declined significantly compared to a generation ago, there are still cases in North Carolina where there is a Republican candidate for president and a Democratic candidate for governor. “The campaign is not over yet,” McLennan said. “But no one should be surprised if North Carolina continues this political tradition in 2024.”
policy issues
Distracted driving
Half of North Carolina drivers feel the state’s roads and highways are somewhat dangerous and feel they are less likely to be involved in an accident. Approximately one in five drivers (19%) feel that they are more likely to be involved in an accident while driving, while approximately 16% feel that they are very unlikely to be involved in an accident while driving. I feel very safe. His two most commonly cited reasons for feeling unsafe on the road are: 1. Other drivers are speeding or driving recklessly, and 2.) Drivers are distracted by their cell phones while driving. It’s about doing things. Approximately one-third of all respondents cited each of these reasons.
When it comes to addressing the issue of distracted driving, 91% of respondents said they would support the General Assembly passing a bill banning drivers from holding mobile devices while driving. Support for this law change was consistent across all groups.
“The Hands-Free Act has the potential to garner more bipartisan support than any other single bill in recent history,” McLennan said. “We’ve been polling on this for several years, and support for passing such legislation continues to grow. There’s a very strong sense that phone calls and safe driving don’t go hand in hand.”
medical cannabis
In 2023, the North Carolina Senate passed SB 3 (North Carolina Compassionate Care Act), which allows doctors to prescribe marijuana for a variety of physical and mental conditions. The North Carolina House of Representatives did not vote on the bill. Some lawmakers want to revisit it during the short 2024 session. A majority of North Carolinians (78%) support passing this type of bill, with only 18% of respondents opposed. Majorities of every demographic group in the state support such a bill, even those who identify as its most conservative residents.
“North Carolina is one of only 12 states without some form of legal medical marijuana. The public strongly supports such a law, and the majority of the medical community supports this bill. Given the current situation, it seems like now might be a good time to pass a bill like this,” McLennan said.
non-tribal land casinos
A majority of North Carolinians (54%) support legalizing casino gambling on non-Native land in North Carolina. Just over a third of respondents (35%) disagreed. Support was relatively consistent across most demographic groups, with only those who identified as the most conservative having less than a majority of respondents supporting casinos in North Carolina.
“Most North Carolinians appear to be accustomed to gambling in all its forms, and supporting casino gambling within the state does not seem to be unusual,” McLennan said. “We have a lottery, and the state just introduced online sports betting. Plus, many states now have casino gambling, including states that border the state, so it’s a lot like it was 20 years ago. Even citizens who may have opposed casino gambling may now accept the fact that gambling in all its forms is inevitable.
importance of democracy
North Carolina voters say the threat to American democracy is real. More than two-thirds (69%) of respondents said it was a real threat, and a further 21% said democracy was under threat, but not seriously . On a related question, 91% of North Carolina voters believe it is important for the country to remain a democracy (or be true to democratic principles). From a demographic group perspective, the majority of all groups, including political partisans, recognize the danger and want to protect democracy.
When it comes to having a strong leader, 40 percent of respondents said they would prefer a strong leader to democracy, even if it undermines democracy. This is a significant increase from his 2022 survey results, in which just over 30 percent of North Carolinians said having a strong leader is more important than democracy. Among groups that took this perspective, Republicans were more likely than Democrats to support strong leadership over Democrats, as were conservative voters and black voters.
“It’s clear that people are concerned about 2024 and its impact on democracy,” McLennan said. “With only 5 percent of respondents saying there is no threat to democracy, it is clear that the red flags raised by academics and experts about democratic fragility are top of mind with voters. Strong leadership this year There appears to be a wide partisan divide as to which is the highest priority: the United States and the protection of democracy.”
additional topics
Other topics covered in this edition of the Meredith poll include support for political leaders, opinions on political polarization, concerns about political violence or the threat of civil war, and partisan differences in opinions about the Kansas City mayor. These include questions that explore whether there is a split. Inspired by Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey. See these results and more in the full report
methodology
Meredith Poll surveyed registered voters in North Carolina. The online sample from Dynata sampled respondents using quotas based on the most recent US Census estimates for North Carolina. After the survey was completed, we weighted the survey for gender, political affiliation, geographic location, race and ethnicity, and education to best represent the sample in North Carolina.
There were 760 respondents in the sample, and the confidence interval was +/- 3.5%. The study was conducted on site from January 26 to 31, 2024. Additional information regarding the methodology is included in the full report.
About Meredith Voting
The Meredith Poll asks North Carolinians their opinions on a variety of social and political public issues. The college is located within the Department of History, Political Science, and International Relations at Meredith College, one of the largest women’s colleges in the Southeast. The Meredith Poll was launched in the spring of 2015 as part of Meredith’s civic engagement efforts.