Does the exodus of leadership from Uttar Pradesh’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) signal the decline of the once-mighty political organization symbolized by the giant elephant? In another major setback ahead of the general elections, Lok Sabha MP Ritesh Pandey resigned from the Mayawati-led BSP and joined the Bharatiya Janata Party on February 25. According to reports, three more BSP MPs are ready to follow suit before the general elections, and another has expressed similar intentions. BSP MPs are considering converting Jayant Chaudhary to Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD).
Earlier, Ghazipur MP Afzal Ansari has already won the Samajwadi Party (SP) ticket from the same seat, while Amroha’s MP Afzal Ansari, who has been suspended by the BSP for anti-party activities. Member of Parliament Denmark Ali is scheduled to participate in the parliament. On February 25, another BSP MP from Jaunpur joined the Bharat Jodh Nyay Yatra led by Rahul Gandhi. As a result, Mayawati’s party may end up retaining only two of its 10 total MPs in 2019.
In a last-ditch effort to salvage its political future, BSP leaders appear to have fled to safer ground, leaving the once-formidable party in limbo. Following the seat deal between the SP and the Congress in Uttar Pradesh, BSP leaders are worried about the election prospects as the contest shifts to a direct showdown between the BJP-led NDA and the SP-Congress alliance. I’m concerned that it will decline. Despite the disappointment of political parties in India’s blocs and her own party leadership, Mayawati said that despite winning 10 seats in alliance with the SP-RLD in 2019, the BSP will not enter the upcoming elections alone. We continue to maintain our position of fighting.
Cutting ties with the people behind the decline
The decline of the BSP has been underway for a long time. In the 2007 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, his party won over 30% of the votes and he secured 206 seats. This success was largely due to Mayawati’s ability to forge an unlikely alliance between Brahmins and Dalits to secure a majority. However, there has been a steady decline in subsequent elections, with the BSP winning only 80 seats in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly (403 seats) in 2012, falling to 19 seats in 2017, and finally one in 2022. He remained in his seat. In 2022, the vote share dropped to just 12.88% for the first time.
The BSP’s fortunes in Parliament reflected this decline, plummeting from 21 seats in 2009 to zero in 2014. A 2019 alliance with the SP-RLD provided a brief respite, resulting in 10 seats. Notably, its vote share was consistently between 19% and 21% between 2014 and 2019.
changing friendship
Class opportunism and shrewd maneuvering defined Mayawati’s political career. Riding on a promise of political empowerment for Dalits, Muslims, and other marginalized social groups, she served as chief minister of Uttar Pradesh four times, each time aligning with different political parties. These electoral alliances are strategically formed to benefit the BSP and are broken if they are not in the BSP’s interest. Even in 2019, despite her electoral gains, Mayawati ended her alliance with her arch-rival Akhilesh Yadav of the SP, leaving the BSP to fight alone in the 2022 assembly elections. However, it only won one seat. In contrast, the SP won 111 seats.
“While there is no denying the fact that the BSP is no longer a strong force in Uttar Pradesh and has become a minor player in the electoral arena, it would be a grave mistake to think that the party can be ignored. “The party, which still has around 13 per cent vote share, may not win many seats, but it definitely has the potential to influence the poll results,” said political analyst Sanjay Pandey. he says.
BSP’s loss, BJP’s gain
There are two factors behind the decline in the BSP. First, the Bharatiya Janata Party has been successful in attracting Dalit voters on a large scale through Hindutva policies and various welfare schemes, which has led to disillusionment with the party. This disillusionment has paved the way for smaller caste parties such as the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) and the Nishad Party to make inroads into the BSP’s base. The emergence of alternative Dalit leaders, such as Chandrashekhar’s Azad Samaj Party, has further divided the BSP’s support base. With leaders like OP Rajbhar, Dara Singh Chouhan and Swami Prasad Maurya leaving for greener pastures, the BSP’s core support base has been severely undermined.
Muslim voters are also torn between loyalty to the SP and Congress, perceiving these parties as better equipped to take on the BJP. The BSP’s decision to contest alone further diminished its appeal, thereby shifting Muslim votes to the SP-Congress alliance.
“BSP’s Dalit votes will mainly shift to the BJP. Muslims may shift to an SP-Congress alliance as there is no third option. BSP may not be in a winning position but will still gain votes. They will try to maintain the rate,” said JP Shukla, a Lucknow-based senior political analyst.
“third party”?
Mayawati faces a number of pending corruption charges and has adopted a cautious approach when it comes to politics. It suits the BJP to use the BSP as a ‘third party’ to triangulate the fight in Uttar Pradesh.
“The Bharatiya Janata Party will also want the BSP to remain in the fight, at least in Muslim-dominated constituencies,” Shukla added.
The upcoming general election is expected to be a contest between the two major parties in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP and the SP-Congress alliance. With Dalits increasingly drawn to the BJP over the past decade, the BSP may be willing to work delicately with the party. The BJP’s Jatav support base has surged from 5% in 2012 to 21% in 2022, while its non-Jatav support has expanded from 11% in 2012 to 41% in 2022.
The BSP has so far rejected overtures from the Indian bloc, but nothing is definitive in politics. Given the size and complexity of Uttar Pradesh, the Lok Sabha elections are expected to be a hotly contested state.
(Bharti Mishra Nath is a senior journalist)
Disclaimer: These are the author’s personal opinions.