Almost every day in the Middle East, people go to sleep and wake up to video clips depicting militias and armed groups attacking various targets. Attacks ranged from Israel to U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria, as well as commercial ships plying the Red Sea. The region is the scene of enormous geopolitical turmoil that could explode like a tinderbox at any moment.
A notable recent development in this context is the footage released by Iraq’s so-called Islamic Resistance, an umbrella coalition encompassing several Shiite movements and groups. The footage shows two drones being launched at US military bases in Iraq and Syria.
The war media of these organizations has become a current media sensation by turning drone launches into festive events targeting diverse targets in a region marked by chaos and absence of national sovereignty. . As we have repeatedly warned as observers, one of the main causes of this turmoil is the fragility of the Middle East’s nation-states. This chronic suffering is a major factor in the everyday practices that push the region to the edge of the abyss.
Tehran’s activities in the region
Certainly, the fate of the entire Middle East cannot be left in the hands of militias whose patrons seek plausible deniability. In this regard, we note Iran’s repeated public statements that Tehran is not responsible for the actions of groups and factions scattered throughout the region. According to these statements, these armed groups do not receive orders from Iran. Even if we consider the truth of these statements, the situation becomes even more mysterious and opaque.
Defeating these groups and completely eliminating their threat requires a joint international operational effort. The rapidly growing weapons capabilities of some terrorist organizations, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and, to a lesser extent, the Houthis in Yemen, may make it difficult to achieve this goal within the desired timeframe.
There is no doubt that the entire international community is paying a price for its silence in the face of the perceived escalation of threats in recent years. Despite repeated warnings from many countries in the region, countries led by the United States have prioritized short-term tactical goals over long-term goals of security and stability. All in all, there’s no point in crying over spilled milk.
Everyone must accept the worrying strategic reality exemplified by the ferocity of armed groups. These groups form something of a strategic alliance and do not hesitate to explicitly support each other.
This is happening against a backdrop of US neglect of what is happening in the Middle East and a catastrophic underestimation of the potential consequences of an overly focused US focus on countering the strategic challenge posed by China.
This attention has grown to such an extent that US House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson has described it as the Biden administration’s appeasement strategy towards Iran. This has led to a destabilization of the region, Mr Johnson said, calling on the US president to wake up and recognize the failure of this policy.
Do you understand that since October 2023, within four months, U.S. forces in the Middle East have been attacked approximately 165 times by militias and armed groups in Iraq and Syria? The situation has worsened in recent days as the Houthis have launched missile and drone attacks against American ships.
Is it possible that the world’s superpowers are engaged in such fierce combat just to prevent terrorist militias from targeting their soldiers, ships, and interests?
american options
The bad news is that the time is not favorable for efforts to combat these militia groups, at least not until after the US presidential election phase is completed this year. Moreover, the White House’s decision appears to be about more than just its impact on the electoral process and the possibility of a second term for President Biden. The report cites assessments of Iran’s nuclear capabilities by some Western experts, including former Iraqi weapons inspector David Albright, who believes that a nuclear-armed Iran says it will take less than a week to build a nuclear weapon after the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. , issues an order.
Given the continued attacks on bases in the region, the United States is understandably concerned about a scenario similar to a withdrawal from Afghanistan. The U.S. government does not want a repeat of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Middle East, especially given the growing threats Israel currently faces.
Militia is usually just a symptom of a serious illness. Even if completely destroyed, military attacks directed against them will be fruitless, since the sponsors of these groups do not care about their human and material losses. Guerrilla power tourism undermines any vision of security and stability in the Middle East.
What is happening in Gaza, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and elsewhere is about the proliferation of armed militias that can intervene in crises, provoke religious conflicts, and thwart any plans by threatening spillover beyond borders. It is only the result of silence. middle east.
The real challenge in the region is not only the dismantling of specific terrorist organizations and armed movements, but also the complete eradication of long-standing militias. Militia groups have proliferated in some parts of the region, leading to copycat movements. Their survival, tenacity, and involvement in the crisis are putting the region at risk of falling into chaos, making talk of stability, security, and a community of common destiny all but meaningless.
The author is a UAE political analyst and former Federal Council of State candidate.