Patriot missiles are fired.
U.S. Department of Defense photo
Ukraine’s allies have made sporadic calls in recent months, but have finally responded to urgent calls from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenkiy for more long-range air defense systems.
Now a shortage of missiles, not the launchers or supporting radars, is becoming Ukraine’s biggest air defense problem.
In April, Germany pledged a third Patriot battery. Two months later, in June, Italy pledged a second SAMP/T battery. And at the NATO summit in Washington, D.C. this week, allied leaders including U.S. President Joe Biden confirmed that the U.S. and Romania would donate a second and first Patriot battery, respectively. Meanwhile, the Netherlands is providing Ukraine with enough launchers for a seventh Patriot battery.
“The United States and our allies and partners remain committed to providing Ukraine with additional air defense capabilities to defend itself against continued Russian aggression,” the Pentagon said.
Once all the newly promised systems arrive, the Ukrainian Air Force will have at least nine of the most advanced Western-made air defense batteries: seven Patriots and two SAMP/Ts. The air force also has about a dozen former Soviet-made batteries, mostly S-300s but also at least one S-200.
In theory, there are just enough batteries to defend the whole of Ukraine. But in reality, the Ukrainian military does not have enough missiles to keep the batteries operational 24 hours a day.
The S-200 has a range of 190 miles; Patriot and SAMP/T 90 miles; and the best S-300s can hit targets up to 75 miles away. The Ukrainian Air Force and Army also operate hundreds of shorter-range air defense systems, but these longer-range systems are Ukraine’s best defense against almost daily Russian missile attacks.
These attacks have intensified: Between March and June, Russia fired 446 missiles at Ukrainian cities, dozens more than it did during the same period last year. A June 8 cruise missile attack on Kiev damaged a children’s hospital, killing two adults and wounding 16 others, including seven children.
Assuming that the Ukrainian Air Force deploys the best Western-made air defense systems to protect its largest cities, keeps the S-200s where they are obviously located (in the south to threaten Russian jets over the Black Sea), and allocates the S-300s to cover the front lines and smaller cities, then nearly all of Ukraine’s 233,000 square miles and 38 million inhabitants should soon come under the protection of at least one long-range air defense battery.
To be sure, nine Western-built batteries (seven Patriot and two SAMP/T) fall far short of the 25 Patriot batteries or equivalent requested by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and of course the Ukrainian military will need the additional batteries to replace combat losses.
But recent NATO commitments will go a long way toward building the basic air defenses Ukraine needs to thwart Russian aggression and protect its people, industry, and energy infrastructure.
What this structure lacks is an adequate supply of missiles: Ukraine’s allies have spent billions of dollars on missiles for Ukraine’s air defense batteries, but the supplies are arguably far below what is needed.
Consider how busy Ukraine’s first Patriot battery was last year just a few weeks into its operations: Donated by Germany, it arrived in Ukraine in May 2023 and shot down its first Russian missile around May 11, then shot down 19 more missiles over the next six weeks, as well as six attack drones, one reconnaissance drone, three helicopters, and three fighter-bombers.
That means one battery could shoot down five missiles a week. Assuming some of the missiles miss, say half, then one Ukrainian Patriot battery could comfortably launch 10 missiles a week. Ukraine would have eight more batteries of the same class of Patriots as the original German ones. Even firing perhaps 80 missiles a week, or nearly 500 a year, they would still be able to shoot down just over a fifth of the missiles coming from Russia.
Just imagine how many Patriot missiles the US defense company Lockheed Martin produces each year: 500 as of December. Ukraine’s allies could send older missiles from their own stockpiles, but many countries, especially the US, are willing to buy new ones for every old one they provide.
Given the tight supply of Patriot missiles, it is not surprising that the Biden administration has implemented a new policy: going forward, all new Patriot missiles will be sent directly to Ukraine rather than to other customers.
“We are reprioritizing deliveries of these exports and will now provide missiles to Ukraine as they come off the production line,” White House national security adviser John Kirby told reporters late last month.
Combined, Patriot and SAMP/T missiles give the United States and its European allies enough missiles to sustain most of Ukraine’s air defenses at current firing rates.
But these batteries are already firing too infrequently to shoot down every incoming Russian missile. To shoot down all Russian munitions, Ukraine may need more than 2,000 long-range air defense missiles each year, potentially four times as many as it currently acquires.
source:
1. U.S. Department of Defense: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3835746/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
2. Oryx: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html
3. Volodymyr Zelensky: https://x.com/tweet4Anna_NAFO/status/1776686029241450682
4. Switzerland: https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/foreign-affairs/type-of-russian-missile-that-struck-kyiv-childrens-hospital-uses-swiss-components/83428653
Five. Defense News: https://www.defensenews.com/land/2024/04/09/how-companies-plan-to-ramp-up-production-of-patriot-missiles/
6. CBS News: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-air-defense-interceptor-patriot-missile/