Group 2 of the Super Eight stage will see a three-way contest for a place in the semi-finals with two matches remaining.
S Rajesh
With two matches remaining in Group 2 of the Super Eight stage of the T20 World Cup 2024, the battle for a place in the semi-finals is now a near three-way battle. The USA is not out of the running, but they need a big win to have a shot at the title. Based on the results of the two remaining matches, England vs USA and West Indies vs South Africa, the qualifying scenario is as follows:
If England and the West Indies win
That leaves three teams with four points each: England, West Indies and South Africa. With their big win over the United States, the West Indies will have a higher net points percentage than South Africa if they beat South Africa on Sunday night. So a win for the West Indies will guarantee qualification, regardless of the result of England vs. the United States.
For England to beat South Africa’s NRR, the total difference between the two results needs to be 10 runs (assuming a first innings total of 160). This means that if England win by 10 runs, they will be ahead in run rate even if South Africa loses the Super Over. If the difference in results is less than 10 runs, South Africa will maintain their lead and qualify with 4 points.
If the US and South Africa win
South Africa will finish at the top of the table with six points, while the other three teams will finish with two points each. If England lose in the Super Over chasing 160, West Indies will have to lose by more than 43 runs to fall below England in NRR. If England lose by a larger margin, West Indies will have more breathing room and in such a scenario, both South Africa and West Indies are likely to progress to the semi-finals.
Due to the USA’s low run rate, they would need two big results to have any chance of finishing in the top two. Firstly, they would need to beat England by at least 56 runs (assuming a total of 160 runs) to overtake England on the NRR, and secondly, they would need to look for the West Indies to lose by at least 91 runs to drop below the USA in run rate.
If the USA and West Indies win
In this case, the West Indies and South Africa would qualify with four points, while England and the USA would finish with two points.
If England and South Africa win
South Africa with six points and England with four points will advance to the semi-finals.
S Rajesh is the Statistics Editor at ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats