Pakistan stayed in the tournament after beating Canada, but they will be eliminated if the Ireland match is cancelled or if the US manages to get just one point from their remaining games.
S Rajesh
With rain causing upsets and points splitting in the first round of league matches of the T20 World Cup 2024, there is a lot of work to be done for one of the favourites from each group to qualify for the Super Eight. Here is a look at the chances of each group.
What margin of results does Pakistan need to qualify?
Pakistan’s impressive win over Canada with 15 balls to spare has certainly increased their chances of qualification, but it remains dependent on the results of their other matches. Pakistan’s net run rate has now improved to 0.191, and a win against Ireland and USA losses in their two remaining matches will almost guarantee qualification. This is because the margin of victory required is small; even if USA loses their two remaining matches by a combined 10 runs (140 for the team batting first), Pakistan’s ability to score at least 112 runs batting first will be enough to win by any margin.
But Pakistan’s bigger worry is the weather. Rain is forecast for the whole week at Lauderhill, where they will face Ireland. If the US wins a point, or Pakistan loses a point because of rain, they will be out of the World Cup.
What does England need to do to qualify?
Like Group A, Group B has one team comfortably placed – Australia – but England are in a similar situation to Pakistan. England need to win their remaining two matches and hope Scotland loses their final match against Australia on June 15. However, the task is a little tougher for England as they have much more to catch up on in NRR. Scotland are at 2.164 for their win over Oman with 41 balls to spare, while England are at -1.8.
If Scotland lose to Australia by 20 runs (chasing 161), England will need to win their remaining two matches against Oman and Namibia by a combined total of 94 runs or more to surpass Scotland on run rate. Equally important, England will need to pray for sunny skies, which will give them a chance to build up points and victory margins; another rain spells defeat for England.
Does Sri Lanka still have a realistic chance?
Bangladesh’s loss to South Africa is good news for Sri Lanka, but for it to work in their favour, they will have to win their remaining two matches (against Nepal and the Netherlands) and hope that Bangladesh loses at least one of their two remaining matches against the same teams.
If Sri Lanka score 160 in each of their remaining two matches and win by 20 runs, their NRR would rise to 0.074, just below Bangladesh’s current rate of 0.075. If Bangladesh win one of their remaining two matches and lose one by a similar margin, their rate would remain close to current levels. However, if their margin of victory is greater than their margin of defeat, Sri Lanka’s task becomes tougher.
The group also features giant-killer Netherlands, who currently have two points from two games, an NRR of 0.024, and have games against Bangladesh and Sri Lanka coming up. One more win and they could be in the running for the title.
How much did the defeat to Afghanistan hurt New Zealand’s chances?
Not only did New Zealand lose, but they did so by a crushing margin of 84 runs, resulting in a dismal NRR of -4.2. Meanwhile, Afghanistan won their two matches by a combined margin of 209 runs, improving their run rate to 5.225. Both West Indies and Afghanistan beat Uganda by margins of over 120 runs.
New Zealand must do the same, but first they must beat the West Indies on Wednesday in what is effectively a knockout match for New Zealand. A loss would see the West Indies qualify with six points, while a win against Papua New Guinea the following day would make Afghanistan a strong candidate to join the West Indies. That would also render New Zealand’s final two matches, against Uganda and Papua New Guinea on Saturday and Monday, meaningless.
*This article was updated at 18:30 GMT on June 11 after Pakistan’s win against Canada.
S Rajesh is the Statistics Editor at ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats