Following Afghanistan’s historic T20 World Cup win against Australia, it is still mathematically possible for any Super Eight nation to reach the semi-finals.
On Sunday morning, Rashid Khan’s side defeated Australia by 21 runs at the Arnos Vale Ground in Kingstown, keeping their T20 World Cup dreams alive for another 48 hours.
The results mean that both groups will remain tightly contested heading into the final round of the Super Eights, with the top two teams in each group progressing to the knockout stages and at least six countries having a realistic chance of progressing through to the Super Eights.
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Group 1
Remaining matches: India vs Australia, Afghanistan vs Bangladesh
Tournament favourites Australia and India were expected to cruise comfortably through to the semi-finals but Afghanistan’s shock win in St Vincent has left both nations in a precarious position.
India’s situation is simple: Rohit Sharma’s side need to beat Australia at Gros Islet on Tuesday, but a healthy net run-rate of 2.425 should ensure safety even if they lose by a narrow margin.
But Australia will face tense circumstances after Tuesday’s match, even if they win.
Mitchell Marsh’s side will move level on four points with India if they win their final Super Eight match, while the winner of Tuesday’s match between Afghanistan and Bangladesh will also finish the season on four points.
In such a scenario, the two nations with the higher net run rate would progress to the semi-finals, with Australia needing to beat India to ensure safety.
For example, if Australia beat India by one run on Tuesday, Afghanistan would only need to beat Bangladesh by 36 runs to beat their net score.
Afghanistan will also have the added advantage of knowing exactly what net run rate they require as their match against Bangladesh starts just hours after the Australian match finishes.
Curiously, if Bangladesh beat Afghanistan narrowly, they could still progress to the knockout stages even if Australia loses to India.
Current T20 World Cup Group 1 standings
1. India — 4 points (+2.425 NRR)
2. Australia — 2 points (+0.223 NRR)
3. Afghanistan — 2 points (-0.650 NRR)
4. Bangladesh — 0 points (-2.489 NRR)
Remaining matches
All times are Australian Eastern Standard Time
Tuesday 25 June, 12:30am — Australia v India, Gros Islet, St Lucia
Tuesday 25 June, 10:30am — Afghanistan v Bangladesh, St Vincent, Arnos Vale
Group 2
Remaining matches: USA vs England, South Africa vs West Indies
South Africa remain unbeaten in the T20 World Cup but are in serious risk of being eliminated from the tournament if they lose to hosts West Indies on Monday.
Reigning champions England are expected to beat the United States in the final Super Eight match and finish level with South Africa on four points in Group 2.
If England’s net score is higher than South Africa’s – and it’s highly likely – the winner of Tuesday’s match between the Proteas and the West Indies will progress to the knockout stage, which will be played in North Sound as a virtual quarter-final.
It would be a brutal end for South Africa, especially as the African nation has won more games than England, who just barely made it into the Super Eight thanks to Australia’s win over Scotland.
The United States has been a heartwarming story in the T20 World Cup, but to have any chance of reaching the semi-finals they will need to crush England and hope the West Indies lose by a large margin to South Africa.
Current T20 World Cup Group 2 standings
1. South Africa — 4 points (+0.625 NRR)
2. West Indies — 2 points (+1.814 NRR)
3. England — 2 Points (+0.412 NRR)
4. United States — 0 points (-2.908 NRR)
Remaining matches
All times are Australian Eastern Standard Time
Monday, June 24, 12:30 a.m. — USA vs. England, Bridgetown, Barbados
Monday, June 24, 10:30 a.m. — West Indies v South Africa, North Sound, Antigua