Biden’s domestic policies have much in common with Sir Keir’s, and much of Labour’s economic strategy is borrowed from the Democrats. Both men have made investment in high-cost green industries and labour market reform high on their priorities.
But Trump has been sceptical of Western aid to Ukraine, with Labour’s John Healey describing his party’s support for Kiev as “ironclad”. Sir Keir has said he ultimately wants to recognise a Palestinian state, and Trump is even more pro-Israel than Biden.
Differences are also likely to arise over China, with President Trump long viewing it as America’s sworn enemy and promising to impose new tariffs while also taking a hard line against imports that he sees as a potential threat to national security.
“Britain will be faced with a dilemma,” said Klaus Rales, a fellow at the Kissinger China Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington. “Of course, Britain has to appease the U.S., but it also doesn’t want to give up on China. Britain and China have very close economic ties.”
There are also stark differences between the two leaders on climate change policy, with Trump promising to “dig, dig, dig” and cut US investment in clean energy, while Labor has said it would do the opposite.
A return of Trump to power would likely reverse London and Washington’s positions on a free trade agreement, with Biden blocking it during his presidency and Trump signalling a willingness to forge ahead with it.
Labor, meanwhile, is interested in reaching an agreement on “sectoral” deals on hi-tech, pharmaceuticals and other key industries while avoiding the row over the import of chlorinated American chicken and other agri-food products.
The presumptive Republican nominee, who was convicted in the Stormy Daniels “hush money” case and faces three additional criminal trials, is also skeptical of federal prosecutors dabbling in politics, the exact career path that Sir Keir followed.
At home, if Sir Keir wants to be trusted to police the border, he must find a way to stop migrants from crossing the Channel illegally. He has said he will work with other countries to find a solution, but he has already abandoned Rishi Sunak’s plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, which was supported by right-wing parties on the continent.
France could see a big change next week, when it votes in its second round of parliamentary elections on Sunday. President Macron has already made it clear he is impressed with Starmer, who said last year that he had the “moral authority” to become prime minister after a bilateral meeting that would be considered a breach of protocol for an opposition leader. But if Marine Le Pen’s National Rally wins an absolute majority, Macron may not take power. That would leave 28-year-old Jordan Bardella to become prime minister. Le Pen has already signaled that she sees Macron’s role as foreign and defence secretary as largely “honourable” and that she and Bardella intend to intervene forcefully. Macron has made concessions to the EU on migration but said he would go further by cooperating bilaterally rather than with the EU as a whole.
“The UK wants to protect its borders, so they’re preventing illegal immigrants from coming into the UK, and they happen to be coming from France,” she said.
Mr Bardella favours setting up a joint Channel taskforce and “chartering flights to return migrants directly to their home countries”, something that is unlikely to be on Mr Starmer’s agenda.