The European Parliament adopted two reports on EU security and defense policy, which also addressed Armenia-Azerbaijan relations. One of them speaks of “the need for targeted sanctions against Azerbaijan in case of aggression against Armenia.”
Opinions of Armenian political scientists on the European Parliament’s statement are mixed. Some say it is “very likely” that sanctions will be applied. Some believe that sanctions will only be effective if the energy agreement between Azerbaijan and the EU is broken and purchases of energy transport companies are stopped.
European Parliament proposes review of partnership agreement
In Armenian professional circles and the media, attention has been focused on the following call from members of the European Parliament:
- “We are prepared to apply targeted and individual sanctions against the perpetrators of aggression, including but not limited to the political and military aides of Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev, and we are prepared to “We are prepared to suspend oil and gas imports from Azerbaijan if this happens. This is in the interest of Armenia’s territorial integrity.”
- “Introducing sanctions against Azerbaijani authorities for numerous ceasefire violations;
- Suspend the operation of the Memorandum of Understanding on Strategic Partnerships in the Energy Sector.
- In light of recent events and the dramatic situation regarding human rights in the country, we will suspend negotiations on a new partnership agreement with Azerbaijan. ”
Military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh called ‘unwarranted’
Azerbaijan’s military operation, which took place from September 19 to 20, 2023, was described by the European Parliament as “unwarranted” and a “planned attack on Nagorno-Karabakh.”
They reminded that the hostilities “occurred after months of isolation of Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh due to the blockade of the Lachin Corridor.” The so-called Russian peacekeeping forces took no action to prevent or prevent the blockade and military invasion in NK. ”
European lawmakers called on Azerbaijani authorities to allow Armenian residents to safely return to Nagorno-Karabakh. They also stressed the importance of protecting Armenia’s cultural, historical and religious heritage. They demanded protection in accordance with UNESCO standards and Azerbaijan’s international commitments.
“This position is not exclusive to MEPs.”
Arman Egoyan, chairman of the European Integration Committee, a member of parliament from the ruling party, told local journalists that other partners also share the position with MEPs.
“Many EU member states are ready to apply this toolkit [sanctions] In the case of the above-mentioned dangerous developments; [violation of Armenia’s territorial integrity].“
In his opinion, the European Parliament’s reports are “not pro-Armenian. They only reflect objective reality.” On the other hand, European Parliament “on the unacceptability of the policies carried out by Azerbaijan” He thinks the statements from lawmakers are becoming more specific.
“For example, two years ago no one talked about sanctions, it wasn’t even considered. Now they’re talking about sanctions. And not just individuals, but oil and gas purchases in general. It also mentions that it will be banned, which is an important sign.”
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Political scientist Garik Kerian positively evaluates the statements made by the European MEPs in their report. However, he believes that the effectiveness of such documents is still small.
According to him, Western countries are trying to create a background of support for Armenia through their own statements. This is due to the Armenian leader’s desire to “change the vector of foreign policy and align the political system with the Western model.”
From this point of view, Mr. Kelian sees the European Parliament’s report as a moral support. He immediately recalled “regular replies that the Azerbaijani president cannot impose anything on his European partners or demand them to move in a certain direction.” He also noted that despite the criticism, European officials warmly welcomed Aliyev in Munich. And Council of Europe President Charles Michel congratulated Aliyev on his victory in the last presidential election.
“What is written on paper and the national interest are two different things. I do not criticize the leadership of the EU or Western politicians. However, I understand that the economic, energy and military-political interests associated with Turkey require us to be extremely cautious in our relations with Azerbaijan.”
Political scientist Gurgen Simonyan believes that the possibility of imposing sanctions against Azerbaijan is “more than a realistic scenario in case of aggression against Armenia.”
He believes it is possible to freeze or even confiscate the assets of senior Azerbaijani officials.
He did not rule out that Europe was prepared to terminate the energy agreement with Baku. He believes that Azerbaijan’s limited resources are the basis for this.
“Exporting up to 13 billion cubic meters of gas per year can only meet the demands of Italy and the Balkans. Therefore, Europe cannot rely heavily on Azerbaijan’s energy resources.This is no reason to turn a blind eye to Baku’s aggressive actions”
Simonyan does not want to overstate the Turkish factor.
“Over time, certain circumstances could weaken Turkey-Azerbaijan cooperation. And Aliyev’s government is now tied to Russia rather than Turkey.Aliyev will be given one last chance and an ultimatum, after which concrete steps will be taken.”
The political scientist believes that European policy is aimed at deterring potential military action in the South Caucasus. If it is triggered, “concrete measures will be taken not only in terms of economic sanctions, but also in terms of military aid to Armenia.”