Few missed Trump’s call for Putin to attack NATO allies. Unfortunately, too many people thought this was a trivial act of political demagoguery and rhetoric pandering to an isolationist base. Some national security experts have warned of the seemingly distant threat of the NATO alliance collapsing, but these predictions have little bearing on whether Trump wins his second presidential election in 10 months. It is hanging and assembled. The reality is much more serious. President Trump’s statement inviting Russia to attack NATO poses an immediate threat to NATO, the United States, and the U.S. military. And the damage cannot be easily undone.
The US domestic political turmoil and the paralysis of the Euro-Atlantic alliance in the planning and implementation of the Russia-Ukraine war strategy resemble some of the key conditions that prompted President Putin to launch the 2022 war. Before the invasion, President Putin recognized that American society and the American political decision-making structure were in disarray. The Jan. 6 insurrection reflected the depth of political divisions in the United States, with President Trump continuing to assert throughout 2021 that Putin was not a threat, Russia was a potential ally, and Ukraine was a source of tensions in Eastern Europe. He made a personal statement that he was an enemy. Although Trump was a former president, he remained the leader of the Republican Party, which became increasingly amenable to the extreme positions he wanted to pursue. For President Putin, this capture of the Republican establishment suggested that Russia’s quick and successful victory would not result in a significant backlash in the West.
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Two years after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, negotiations seem far-fetched
Analysts and diplomats say Ukraine is determined to keep fighting to regain territory, but President Putin will be satisfied with a complete surrender of Kiev, leading to another year of war, analysts and diplomats say. diplomats say.
The same situation that led to Russia’s decision to attack Ukraine is reappearing today in the context of NATO. President Putin has shown a penchant for war optimism and miscalculation. He may read Trump’s recent signals and interpret the current security environment in the same way he did heading into 2022. This is a dangerous miscalculation and a recipe for direct conflict between Russia and NATO.
Conventional wisdom suggests that President Trump’s invitation to attack Russia on NATO is contingent on his victory in November 2024. In this framework, President Trump’s comments are sending a signal to President Putin that NATO will lack American leadership as a result of the second Trump administration. Although Congress prohibits the president from unilaterally withdrawing from any alliance, the executive branch retains broad discretion to conduct foreign policy. Therefore, even if the United States remains in her NATO, the Trump administration may simply choose not to act when faced with a collective defense NATO Article 5 scenario.
Even more dangerous is the relevance of Trump’s statements to America’s national security today. If Republicans are prepared to transform border security as President Trump demands. Putin is very likely to interpret the Republican Party’s willingness to pivot toward defending NATO. The result will be political paralysis in the United States. President Putin may see this as an attractive, fleeting, and unique opportunity that he must exploit to achieve one of his most important long-term goals.
As a result, President Trump has significantly advanced the possibility of war with Russia. Because he alone eroded the principle of collective self-defense that is the foundation of the NATO alliance. This principle, embodied in NATO Article 5, that “an attack on one is an attack on all,” successfully alarmed the Soviet Union for generations. President Trump’s recent comments have called into question the decades-old right of collective self-defense. President Vladimir Putin has said that one of his greatest aims is the destruction of NATO and may soon accept an invitation from President Trump to use the chaos to test NATO’s resolve. Ta.
This is likely to be a limited attack, as Russia is mired in the Ukraine issue and has limited resources for a major confrontation with NATO. For example, Russia could attack across the Suwalki Gorge in Lithuania to seize the land route between the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus. This is exactly the scenario that the US government fears most and assesses as a potential flashpoint for a conflict between Russia and NATO.
A limited Russian attack on NATO during the Biden administration would likely be a grave miscalculation for President Putin. The executive branch has wide discretion in conducting foreign policy and national defense. Congress has a war powers role, but it is not a reflexive or immediate function. Even obstruction by House Republicans would not be enough to prevent the Biden administration from responding quickly and meaningfully if Article V were invoked. Additionally, some of NATO’s defense actions are automated by the authority granted to the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe and NATO to defend U.S. forces.
The Biden administration also undermined its own ability to deter Russian aggression. Bowing to nuclear threats due to fears of escalation, the United States and Western countries have been unable to provide the necessary support to protect Ukraine from Russia. The combination of policy failures across multiple administrations to deter Russian aggression, the Biden administration’s indecisive response to the Russia-Ukraine war, and President Trump’s invitation to attack Russia with NATO has significantly reduced deterrence. is damaged. With President Trump’s invitation to attack NATO, his influence on the Republican Party creating paralysis, and President Putin’s tendency to miscalculation and opportunism, we now face a uniquely dangerous risk of conflict with Russia. ing.
We are at a particularly dangerous time in U.S.-Russian relations. Decisive action is essential. A bipartisan effort to demonstrate that NATO is healthy and our collective defense is ironclad must be undertaken immediately. President Putin must dispel his perception that the United States will not act to protect NATO. The House must then immediately return to Congress and Republicans must pass a national security bill that includes $60 billion in aid to Ukraine. Rather than relying on appeasement or the prospect of “cooperation” with Russia, U.S. policymakers must demonstrate that the United States is willing to support a defense alliance. Failure to do so will not only erode deterrence, but also invite disaster.
Why it matters: President Biden issues a statement emphasizing the NATO alliance President Trump’s invitation to attack President Putin on NATO is sacrosanct, and Article 5’s guarantee of collective self-defense is ironclad I thought. Nevertheless, the danger is real.
Within the past 24 hours, noises have been heard from the breakaway region of Transdniestria in Moldova about holding a referendum on joining the Russian Federation. This would be foolish. Almost certainly, Ukrainian and Moldavian and even Romanian forces will crush Russian efforts to steal more territory and establish another enclave near NATO and the European Union. The danger of such a move should not be underestimated. The immediate result would be an escalation of the war involving other European countries. Romania’s involvement will lead to the first conflict between a NATO member state and Russian forces in a regional conflict.
Reprinted from the author’s blog “Why It Matters”. Click here for the original text.
The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily of the Kyiv Post.