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Chinese leader Xi Jinping will welcome Vladimir Putin to China on Thursday for the Russian president’s second visit in less than a year. It’s the latest sign of growing alignment between the two countries as global fault lines tighten as conflicts ravage Gaza and Ukraine.
President Putin arrives in China just over a week into his new term, which will extend his dictatorial rule until 2030 as a result of an election with no real opposition.
According to Chinese state media, Xi’s visit, scheduled for May 16 and 17, mirrors his own official visit to Moscow just over a year ago and, like Putin’s, It was the start of a new term that broke with conventional wisdom. Rewrite the rules regarding leadership terms.
The talks come months before the US presidential election, with Washington facing growing international backlash over its support for Israel’s war in Gaza. It will provide leaders with a forum to discuss how they can advance their shared ambition to reduce U.S. power and provide an alternative to it.
The visit also comes as the two leaders operate within what observers say is a slow but growing alignment of interests between Iran and North Korea, both of which are openly anti-American. North Korea, whose economy is almost entirely dependent on China, is believed by Western governments to provide military supplies to Russia. The United States says it is backed economically by Russia and China, and so is Tehran, a powerful player in the Middle East conflict.
President Putin is emboldened by the survival of the wartime economy and will arrive on a two-day state visit amid a new major offensive along key points on Ukraine’s front lines. For Mr. Xi, who has just returned from a tour of Europe, the trip is an opportunity to show that his loyalty to President Putin has not compromised his ability to engage with the West.
However, the loud declaration of loyalty reveals an even more difficult situation.
Pressure is increasing from the US government on the Chinese government over allegations of support for Russia’s defense industry. In Europe, Xi had to weather intense tensions in France but was welcomed with only fanfare in Serbia and Hungary, while Russia, an important partner of China, remains isolated on the world stage. .
President Xi has stepped up his calls for Europe and other countries to help the world avoid a “Cold War,” signaling that Beijing will resist what it sees as U.S. efforts to contain China.
But the leader himself, including his reception with President Putin this week, is seen as deepening ties to highlight widening global rifts, with technology and investment that China needs. Experts say this could deepen the rift with Western countries.
“We live in a more dangerous world, where authoritarian powers are increasingly aligned. Russia receives support for wars of aggression from China, Iran and North Korea,” said NATO chief Jens. Stoltenberg warned last month.
“This is a reminder that security is global, not regional. And we will work with like-minded partners around the world to ensure transatlantic security. It must be preserved and protected.”
Sergey Gneev/AP
Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose for a photo before their meeting on the sidelines of the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, China, Wednesday, October 18, 2023.
“Grand Strategy”
Looming over this week’s meeting between Xi and Putin is the West’s threat to take broader action against Russia if it continues to send certain goods to the country. The U.S. government says exports for military applications will allow Russia to strengthen its defense industry.
“The pressure is probably greater than it has been in the past two years,” said Lee Mingjiang, an associate professor of international relations at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, pointing to new U.S. sanctions targeting Chinese companies earlier this month. There are many more possibilities, including from the EU.
China said it strictly monitors military exports and denies any trade with Russia goes beyond normal bilateral exchanges. Bilateral trade between the two countries reached a record $240 billion last year.
Even close observers of Mr. Xi’s opaque decision-making disagree on whether this means the Chinese leader will use his time with Mr. Putin this week to advocate for an early resolution to the conflict. I know.
However, China’s official trade statistics for March and April both show a decline in exports to Russia compared to the same period last year, indicating that China has deep reach into the commercial and financial sectors. This suggests that the United States may be taking steps to protect itself from ongoing Western sanctions.
However, deepening cooperation in various fields between the two countries, which regularly hold military exercises and diplomatic exchanges, is unlikely to prevent realignment there. Analysts also say Beijing’s ultimate interests in war with Russia are unlikely to change.
“Russia is the cornerstone of China’s grand strategy,” said Manoj Kewalramani, head of Indo-Pacific research at the Takshashila Institute Research Center in Bangalore. Beijing doesn’t want escalation, but “has a deep interest in making sure Russia doesn’t lose the war,” he said.
Stringer/AFP/Getty Images
Boys look on as smoke rises during an Israeli attack east of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on May 13, 2024.
The Gaza war is expected to be a touchpoint in talks between Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin, analysts say, opening an opportunity for the two countries to work toward common goals.
As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a joint press conference with Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing last month, these goals include, broadly speaking, This includes establishing a liberated and “just multipolar world order.” as well as working together to “unify countries of the Global South.”
Regarding Gaza, both countries refuse to blame Hamas for the October 7 terrorist attack on Israel. They also criticize Israel and the United States, adding to the growing global backlash against Israel’s war, particularly across the Global South. More than 35,000 people have died in Gaza during the war, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health, and the situation in the massive humanitarian operation is worsening with each passing week.
China has limited assertive influence in the region, while Russia has some presence, but “both countries see each other as a force multiplier,” said Kewalramani in Bangalore. said, noting the overlap between the two countries in their responses to the conflict.
The conflict is also impacting how China and Russia view their relations with local countries, he added. This includes Iran, which last year joined BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, two international groups founded by Beijing and Moscow.
“They see Iran as part of a new order[that they are working to create]while they see Israel as a proxy for the United States…That position has become even clearer since October 7.” Stated.
“Private and quiet”
But as the world’s rifts deepen and President Xi continues to strengthen ties with President Putin and Russia, there are growing concerns about where China will lead the world’s second-largest economy, including within Chinese policy circles and the public sphere. There are also questions as to whether this is the case.
Unlike the internationally isolated Russia and Iran, China remains an important player and potential player in global issues such as climate change across the Western world, despite its human rights record in the South China Sea and around Taiwan and concerns about aggression. is regarded as a strong partner.
“Chinese people like me feel ashamed to accept President Vladimir Putin because his country violates the United Nations Charter and is considered an aggressor by 141 countries,” Shanghai said Shen Dingli, an international scholar based in . China “wants to use Russia” for that purpose, but Russia is weakening China, he said.
Earlier this month, public suspicions and concerns about Russia were made clear in China when an account was opened on the Chinese social media platform Weibo in the name of Alexander Dugin, a prominent Russian ultranationalist thinker.
Social media users flocked to the unverified page, where some called for a victory for Ukraine and others pointed to historical friction between the two countries, with one user’s comment racking up hundreds of likes. They gathered to demand that the lands in Russia’s Far East ceded to Russia be returned to Moscow. Russian Empire in the 19th century.
CNN was unable to confirm whether the account, which has amassed more than 100,000 followers, is genuine.
Some observers have argued that historical mistrust related to border tensions and China’s Cold War realignment with the United States, which were formally resolved in the early 2000s, may have led to a shift between Xi and Xi in the face of shared tensions with the West. Trust within the broad ranks of the government argues that even Putin’s close ties mean they are transactional, or at least lacking.
All of this is in major focus ahead of the upcoming US election, the outcome of which could have a major impact on the future of the Ukraine war and US engagement with China, and former President Donald Trump’s re-election likely due to Russia will bring benefits to. .
“We know that some China policy analysts will quietly and privately discuss this despite the US pressure on China and the geopolitical controversy over the past few years. …China could have, and at the same time, maintained a little better relations with the United States and the West.”It has avoided developing relations with Russia, which are now so close. ” said Mr Lee in Singapore.
But there appears to be little room for such questions in Mr. Xi’s China.
Rather, this week’s summit is poised to underline the strength of the partnership and provide an opportunity for both sides to confirm the aspirations Xi expressed to Putin during a state visit to Moscow over a year ago.
There he declared that “changes that have not occurred in 100 years” are occurring. “We should work together to move forward with (these changes),” he said.