As one circus of absurdity ends in Pakistan, another one begins. The farcical nature of the country’s election campaign produced an even more farcical result. Nawaz Sharif took the lead in delivering his victory speech even as independent candidates backed by Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) continue to maintain their lead on the victory board. He asserted that the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) has emerged as the largest political party in the country, and stressed that all political parties need to come together and work towards withdrawing Pakistan from Pakistan. was in a celebratory mood. crisis.
A rude awakening for the military?
It is a strange situation in which a party that was expected to win easily with the support of Pakistan’s military is now lagging behind an independent party that has no support. No wonder Pakistani voters have finally decided to give their mighty military a taste of their own medicine. Even by Pakistan’s abysmal standards, this was one of the worst “managed” elections in the country. Two days later, there is still little clarity on what its future trajectory will be. But the battle lines are solidifying. The PTI has made it clear that “now is the time for democracy to flourish” and has pushed back, saying “those in power must learn to respect people’s choices”, but attempts to “derail decisions” warns of “deadly consequences”. And Imran Khan himself, with the help of AI, congratulated his party workers on “winning the 2024 elections” despite the crackdown on his party.
While there may be a lack of clarity about the winners, the main losers of this farce are very clear. As with Pakistan, the military’s days don’t look very promising at the moment. The election results show that the military’s grip on the country is weakening. The military is likely to use any means necessary to skew the outcome to its liking. The fact that ignoring public sentiment increases the risks to the military is another matter. The election trends so far have been a major blow not only to Pakistan’s traditional established political parties but also to the military. It is no secret that the real command of Pakistan has always been in the hands of the military. The military has sometimes chosen political pawns to serve its own interests. The last polls showed support for Imran Khan, leading to Khan’s coronation. In the ensuing conflict with Imran, the military united his opposition parties under one platform and formed a coalition government. Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir, in the wake of his rift with Imran Khan, sought to ensure that Imran and his party did not reach the breaking point of power under any circumstances. However, electoral trends indicate the opposite. In any case, this is a serious humiliation not only for the military but also for other political parties. This situation can be inferred from the fact that Nawaz Sharif, who was considered a strong candidate for prime minister, lost in one constituency, while his victory was questioned in the other.
Possible new dawn for Pakistani politics
Pakistani military authorities did everything possible to discredit Imran Khan. He was involved in many cases. In many cases, punishment also occurred. He was disqualified from participating in elections. His party’s election symbol, the “cricket bat,” was confiscated. This meant that the PTI was not in a position to field any formal candidates in the elections. All major leaders of Imran’s party have left. The activities of those who remained were restricted by military pressure. Even in such adverse circumstances, a victory of this magnitude for independent candidates supported by the PTI would be a major blow to the military and other stakeholders. This is not only a moral victory for Imran Khan, but may also herald a new dawn in Pakistani politics. This shows that Pakistanis are disappointed with the military’s political intervention and the attitude of traditional political parties. There is also another kind of “Indian influence,” in which recent advances in India are seen as linked to Indian opposition to dynastic politics and corruption.
Pakistan is struggling on many fronts. The economy is in a slump. Social and regional cohesion is at an all-time low. Afghanistan’s Taliban government is increasingly isolated regionally, ignoring Islamabad’s demands with impunity. Iran also carried out an airstrike a few days ago, causing great embarrassment to Pakistan. Pakistan’s latest election results reflect widespread disillusionment with the established governance structure under the protection of political groups and the military. These appear to be a wake-up call to the military and traditional political parties that the public is no longer in the mood to tolerate their shenanigans.
The electoral process and current mixed results are unlikely to engender confidence in the ability of Pakistan’s policymakers to put together a policy. The U.S. State Department joined in the “assessments of credible international and local election observers that these elections included unreasonable restrictions on freedom of expression, association, and peaceful assembly.” As the next phase of putting the government together begins, accompanied by horse-trading, pressure and counter-pressure, things are likely to get much worse before they get better for a country desperately seeking light at the end of a long tunnel. .
(Harsh V. Pant is Professor of International Relations at King’s College London. His most recent books include India and the Gulf: Theoretical Perspectives and Policy Shifts (Cambridge University Press) and Politics and Geopolitics. Science: Decoding India’s Neighborhood Issues” (Rupa))
Disclaimer: These are the author’s personal opinions.