This review of Russia and Ukraine’s military assessments is possible thanks to commentaries published in the past two weeks by two retired military commanders: former Russian chief of staff General Yuri Baruyevsky and head of the Ukrainian military General Valery Zarzhiny. It became. They were published respectively in the Russian publication Army Standard Magazine and on the website of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
This commentary was reported to me by Kevin Ryan, a retired Army brigadier general who served as the U.S. defense attaché in Moscow and later taught at the Belfer Center at Harvard Kennedy School. He translated the article and circulated it among Russia experts this week. Zarzhiny made similar comments about the importance of drones in an interview published in The Economist in November, but Russia’s analysis is new and surprising.
“These two adversaries see many of the same lessons,” Ryan wrote in an email summarizing the commentary. Generals recognize that on the Ukrainian battlefield, “no concentration of troops, large or small, can escape constant reconnaissance by unmanned aerial systems and satellites,” he said.
The ongoing tactical revolution in Ukraine highlights why Congress’ failure to approve continued U.S. military support for Kiev would be so devastating. As Russia becomes more adept at digital warfare, Zarzhny said Ukraine may be held back by “depleted missile and ammunition stocks of partner countries” and “difficulties for allies to prioritize support.” I am concerned that this may not be the case.
Baruevsky’s comments read like a wake-up call to his fellow Russian officers. He claims that the so-called special military operation in Ukraine was “literally an unprecedented test for all elements of military affairs and military construction.” His analysis was published in the preface to a collection of essays on the war, which was later collected in Army Standard by Russian journalist Sergei Valchenko.
Baruevsky echoes many Western commentators who argue that defense is prioritized over offense in Ukraine. “Air defense has achieved an unexpected victory over military aircraft,” but military aircraft have “lost the ability to operate en masse over enemy territory” and must also fly “cautiously over their own territory.” No longer.
The tank was “an easy target to detect and attack” and “proved to be extremely vulnerable to mines,” making it “one of the main casualties of the past two years of combat experience.” ” he explains. Similarly, “the impossibility of concentrating forces requires conducting combat operations with small units and separate combat vehicles.”
Baruevsky makes some scathing comments about the capabilities of Russian weapons. “The qualitative superiority of NATO artillery is clear,” he asserts. Ukraine “has demonstrated significant delays in Russian artillery and missile systems and requires radical rearmament as a priority in the coming years.”
The winner of this war is the drone. “Unmanned aircraft quickly and unconditionally took control of the airspace,” Baruevsky claimed. Zarzhiny agrees that “unmanned systems and other new weapons are almost the only way out of the stalemate of trench warfare.”
Zarzhny laments Russia’s superiority in human resources and Ukraine’s inability to improve the staffing situation of its armed forces without resorting to unpopular measures such as nationwide conscription. Disagreements with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy about the need for such a mobilization have been one of the causes of recent tensions between the two, with Zelenskiy reportedly prepared to dismiss his commander. ing.
As I wrote after visiting Kiev in October, Ukraine is exhausted by the war and slowly bleeding. Implicitly recognizing this war fatigue, Zarzhniy argues that “reducing the level of losses, reducing the degree of participation of traditional means of destruction, … [and] The involvement of heavy machinery is limited. ”
The lesson for the United States is to go beyond the simple but urgent need to continue military assistance to Ukraine and focus that support on critical high-tech weapons. Weapons that have sparked endless debate, such as tanks and F-16 fighter jets, are less important than drones, anti-aircraft systems, and electronic warfare jammers.
In the opinion of Russian and Ukrainian generals, today’s best weapons are small, inexpensive systems such as “first-person” systems, or systems that fly toward targets and are almost impossible to stop, such as small suicide bombers. It may be an impossible FPV drone. The frightening fact is that these silent killers can be purchased and used by almost any combatant anywhere on the planet. As the generals agree, it is a new day in war.