Editor’s note: Julian Zelizeris a political analyst for CNN and a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. He is the author and editor of his 25 books, including the New York Times bestseller “.“American Myths: Historians Challenge the Biggest Legends and Lie About Our Past.”” (Basic book). The views expressed in this commentary are his own.view more opinions On CNN.
CNN
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Michigan was the first test of President Joe Biden’s coalition in a battleground state Tuesday night. The president has been concerned about turnout and the number of Democrats who have registered “non-commitment” as an option.
That fear is not irrational. In a race that is likely to be contested in a handful of battleground states, Biden cannot afford to make the same mistake Hillary Clinton made in 2016, when she lost the presidency with a small number of votes.
The Biden campaign is concerned about the political damage the president has suffered from his response to the Gaza conflict and his inability to make progress on some of the issues that are critically important to young people, blacks, Latinos and young adults. Muslim American voters will be critical in ensuring swing states go their way.
Biden is not only worried about a drop in votes. So are concerns that former President Donald Trump’s improved polling performance with Black and Latino voters indicates real potential for Republicans to make inroads into traditionally Democratic constituencies.
Numbers released by Michigan State Tuesday night suggest the problem is real. Biden is facing resistance in the Wolverine State from Arab American Democrats who led a campaign encouraging voters to vote “irresponsibly” to send a message to the Biden campaign. A significant number of people participated in the campaign.
But is this deadly? No it isn’t. There’s a lot of time between now and November. The situation in the Middle East is in flux, and the frustration and anger that is so prevalent today may be less of a priority for voters on Election Day.
01:09 – Source: CNN
Biden told reporters he hoped there would be a ceasefire in Gaza now.
At that critical juncture, the president will have an opportunity to win back support with the help of Vice President Kamala Harris. This valuable time will be essential for the president’s team to make a strong case for the strategy Biden is pursuing.
The Democratic Party should take a somewhat calm look at these numbers. Some unenthusiastic voters are sending a message to President Biden rather than going all out and voting against him and threatening to make the results count on Election Day.
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But most importantly, come November, the question will be Biden or Trump. Voting uncommitted in February 2024 is not the same as voting for Donald Trump in November 2024. For many progressives, the choice will not be between a Biden presidency or no commitment, but rather the policies of the incumbent and a reactionary right-wing former president. Their coalition would be another step back from the situation that is currently causing so much anger. The choice will be between someone they don’t really like and someone whose policies are the exact opposite of theirs.
There is time and space for the administration to respond and for Democrats to shift attention to the consequences of not coming together. In 1968, Vice President Hubert Humphrey was unable to make this case to the Progressive Coalition within his party. As a result, Richard Nixon became president.
The cost of President Biden’s failure to make a convincing case to the Progressive Coalition in 2024 will be a second term for President Donald Trump.