“We are faced with a nuclear-armed state.” Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Goncharenko said: “Either we form an alliance with a nuclear-armed state and become a member of NATO, or we restore our nuclear status.” ” he said. “I don’t see any other options. Which option would you choose?”
Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security promises through the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, but Russia invaded anyway. Currently, Ukrainians are skeptical of Western security that falls short of NATO membership. And they are frustrated by NATO’s mixed messages. At the 2022 Munich conference, days before the full-scale invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy implored U.S. and European officials to join him. “Let’s be honest: It’s good to have an open door, but what we need are open answers, not open questions for years,” he said.
At the 2023 NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the Biden administration declined to support a NATO invitation, but promised allies that “Ukraine will become a member of NATO” at an unspecified future date. Negotiated a confirming statement. President Zelenskiy said in a tweet that NATO’s refusal to issue a formal invitation was “ridiculous” and exposed a rift between Kiev and the United States.
This year, all eyes are on the NATO summit that Biden will host in Washington in July. Ukraine’s status will be at the top of the agenda. But U.S. officials have already poured cold water on the idea that Ukraine could receive a formal invitation to the summit. Inside the administration, officials are debating what else they can do to reassure Ukraine that “not now” doesn’t mean “never.”
For Ukrainians, membership means more than just physical security. It speaks to Ukraine’s ability to determine its own future. The goal of NATO membership is clearly stated in Ukraine’s constitution, so abandoning NATO membership because of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s opposition would undermine Ukraine’s fundamental independence.
“It was a request from the Russian side that any desire to join NATO should be rejected. And this is interference in our domestic policy,” Ehor Chernyev, chairman of the Ukrainian delegation to the NATO parliament, said in an interview. told me. “If we agree to this, we will lose our sovereignty.”
Ukraine has no plans to join NATO at this time, but Chernyev said it cannot afford to wait until the war is over to plan its future security architecture. “It’s like a signal to reserve a seat at the table,” he says.
Critics say issuing a formal invitation to Ukraine could spark escalation with Putin and make it harder to reach a negotiated settlement to end the war. But it’s going backwards, as Putin has been escalating aggression for years despite NATO’s warnings, former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told me.
“This is a very dangerous argument because it would effectively give President Putin a veto power. It would give him an incentive to continue hostilities to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.” said Rasmussen.
In any case, the Biden administration has indicated that a formal invitation this summer is not imminent. Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Ivo Dalder said a formal invitation is less important than coming up with concrete ways to help Ukraine cooperate and integrate with NATO.
“What can we actually do now to bring Ukraine closer to NATO? So when we move forward with membership, can we join quickly? That’s where the discussion is going,” he said. . “Ukraine needs a political strategy that goes beyond a war strategy.”
Daalder and former State Department official Karen Donfried are collaborating on several ideas they discussed with U.S. and European officials in Munich. NATO could establish a process to more clearly define what Ukraine needs to do to advance to the invitation stage. To avoid triggering a full-fledged conflict between NATO and Russia, work could be done to clarify how Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine would be treated if Ukraine joined.
NATO could also take over a U.S.-led multilateral effort to arm and train Ukraine’s military. The Biden team also needs to finalize a long-overdue 10-year memorandum of understanding to establish long-term U.S. support for Ukraine’s security, modeled on the U.S.-Israel agreement signed by President Barack Obama. be. It is too risky to postpone these issues until after the U.S. presidential election, given that former President Donald Trump’s return to the presidency could mean the U.S. withdrawing from Ukraine, NATO, or both. .
Ultimately, this is about whether Ukraine’s future will be decided in Kiev or in Moscow. Ukraine wants to be part of the West, and the West needs Ukraine as a partner and a bulwark against Russian aggression. President Putin might not like that. But he doesn’t control Ukraine. And NATO can guarantee that he will never rule.