The Republican presidential primary is almost over. Even if Nikki Haley stays in the race, it is unlikely she will win a single primary, including next month's primary in her home state of South Carolina. Even though Haley won a whopping 43 percent of New Hampshire's vote, the reality of her election is grim. She leads Donald Trump by more than 56 points nationally and by 37 points in South Carolina, according to FiveThirtyEight's latest polling average.
It's deja vu again. Trump has never relinquished control of the party since taking the lead in the Republican primary in 2015. And the Republican Party has also experienced consistent losses since Trump's hostile takeover and surprise victory in 2016. Democrats took the House from Republicans in 2018. In 2020, it took over the president and the Senate. In these two elections, the Democratic Party achieved a political feat not seen since the Herbert Hoover era. He won the House, Senate, and White House with a single four-seat majority. – Year span.
And the Democratic Party's success didn't stop there. Despite a political climate that was supposed to be overwhelmingly favorable to Republicans in 2022, Democrats won a small victory in the Senate and narrowly lost the closely contested House of Representatives. MAGA candidates who refused to run were defeated in several battleground state elections.But none of these setbacks broke President Trump's grip on the Republican Party.
Part of the reason is that while Democrats have been able to rally an effective anti-Trump opposition, conservative Never Trumpers (Republicans and former Republicans like myself) have been able to rally an effective anti-Trump opposition party against Trump. This is because the people who desperately tried to break the rule failed. It's clear now that we didn't have a chance. And the reason is equally obvious. We didn't really understand our party.
To understand our confusion (and mistakes), let's go back to 2014, the Before Times. At the time, I was a committed Republican working at a conservative Christian law firm. If you asked me to describe the Republican Party, I would say: At our best, we are a party with a distinctly conservative ideology and commitment to character.
This ideology revolved around the three pillars of the Reagan Republican Party: limited government, social conservatism, and a strong national defense. The obsession with character grew out of the political conflicts of the Clinton era, when conservatives were furious that Democrats were willing to overlook or justify Bill Clinton's disgraceful and illegal actions. No one would claim that all conservatives have decency – we've seen too many scandals to believe that – but I think the Republican Party I refused to believe that he would make any sweeping excuses, rationalizations, or defenses of Bill Clinton in the midst of it all.
I wasn't just wrong. I was completely and embarrassingly wrong. The direction of the wind was changing. I could feel it, but I didn't fully understand it. It wasn't until Trump revealed everything. The Republican Party's hallmark has never been ideology or integrity, much less both. Rather, it was hostility. And no one models hostility better than Donald Trump.
In 2014, the Pew Research Center released an interesting and comprehensive survey of American political attitudes, and its conclusions were sobering. For the past 20 years. ” I remember seeing this study when it was published, but I didn't really understand its significance. Once again, to Donald Trump.
There have been Republican leaders who have shown hostility and questionable character before, perhaps Newt Gingrich being the most notable example. But they were also orthodox conservatives in terms of ideology. Until President Trump, I had no idea what values dominated the minds of Republican voters: conservative ideology, personal character, hostility toward Democrats. Trump, for all his hostility, was the least ideologically orthodox Republican and the most dubious character of any Republican to run for president in my adult life.
He mocked the Iraq War, praised Planned Parenthood, praised war crimes, supported trade wars, lived a life of lavish indulgence, and bragged publicly. Looking back at old essays by conservatives opposed to Trump, his most persistent complaint was simple. The man was not a “real” conservative. At the same time, some of us remembered Christian conservatives' outcry over Clinton's infidelity and believed that arguments about character would pull believers out of Trump's grasp.
But that's not the case. When ideology and personality conflicted with partisan punitiveism, key groups in the Republican Party chose punitiveism. When Trump shocked the world and won against Hillary Clinton, a politician that Republican voters had probably despised longer and more deeply than any other Democrat except her husband, the bond with Trump Sealed.
If hostility to Democrats, more than ideology or personality, were a key Republican value, you can see how the Never Trumpers were doomed to fail. Clearly, some Republican voters (including many who came to the party) genuinely love Donald Trump. because would reject Donald Trump's Never Trump argument. The real disappointment is that we were unable to reach out to Republicans who: do not have Avid Trump supporters, legions of skeptical voters who tell anyone who will listen that there's something they really don't like about him, but still vote for him.
The central problem is that if hostility toward Democrats is the primary value, then criticism of Trump must end the moment it is seen as supporting or showing agreement with Democrats. . Impeach Trump? We are not working with the Democratic Party. Indict Trump? Not if that's what Democrats want. If Democrats agree with that, then any opposition to Trump is excessive opposition.
Therefore, the only critiques of Trump that conservatives are reluctantly allowed to make are critiques of his effectiveness.If there's one thing we know, it's that the Democratic Party please do not At the end of the day, we want someone who is like Trump, but better. That's why most MAGA people would welcome Ron DeSantis and his supporters back. The Florida governor's central criticism was that Trump wasn't as good at defeating Democrats or punishing progressives as he was.
I understand the difficult questions. Expressing hatred for Democrats could connect them with Republican voters. But if you disagree with Democrats and criticize Trump's character or policies, Trump voters will be confused.Why can't you agree with the Democratic Party? and Help the Democrats? Don't you know that that's exactly what you're doing? Keep your complaints to yourself. Don't give ammunition to the other side.
Last summer, my colleague Nate Cohn published a poll showing that only 37 percent of Republicans supported MAGA, and another 37 percent were “convinced.” But I have experience with voters of these persuasions, and they are very negatively polarized toward Democrats and the left. I am reminded of a recent Politico profile of a Trump supporter named Ted Johnson. He claimed that he had opened up to Nikki Haley at one point, which made him “convincing.” But he also believes that January 6th is “Patriot Day” and that President Trump needs to destroy the American system and tear the country apart.
These are the “convincing” Trump supporters I know. They may be willing to consider others, but in the end they come back to Trump. It's also because they see a mirror of themselves in his anger. They know President Trump knows what time it is.
One of the harsh realities of life is that we often don't understand our true values until they come into conflict. For example, we might say that we believe our political leaders should be men or women of high character who broadly agree with our policy positions. But do we actually believe that at the cost of losing the political race? Or is victory a necessity and character and ideology a luxury?
I don't regret my stand against Trump. I will make it again and will continue to make it. I ask myself how I could have missed the Republican Party's outrage. And it saddens me deeply to think that I may have done something in my life before President Trump to add to his unrighteous anger. Hostility is the enemy of freedom and unity. Before Republicans can reject Trump or end Trumpism, they need to assuage the anger that dominates the minds of too many on the right.
Photo source by Jeff Swensen and Space Frontiers/Getty Images.