Joe Biden should not run for re-election. That was clear long before the special counsel’s comments about the president’s memory loss sparked an outburst of anxiety related to his age. And Democrats furious with the prosecution have to feel like that will become even more apparent as the actual campaign gets deeper.
What’s less obvious is how Biden should get out of this situation.
Note that I’m not saying Biden shouldn’t. Get used to it president. His decline has been evident, but no matter what balance the White House tries to achieve, it has so far been largely indistinguishable from (and in some cases better than) what we would expect from a successor-level Democratic president. ) can also be argued to be producing results.
So far, if there is a truly significant age effect on his presidency, it is the courage of his American rivals, namely, the aging American CEO rather than the energetic American chief executive. I think there’s a sense that there’s no need to fear the CEO. But suspicion is not proof, and looking at how the Biden administration has actually handled various external crises, we can imagine even more dire outcomes from a more bossy type of president.
But saying things are going well through this stage of Biden’s decline is very different from betting that things will continue to go well for nearly the next five years. And to say that Biden could hold office for the next 11 months means that Biden could spend those months effectively campaigning for the right to hold the office again. is completely different.
The impression the president gives in public is one of extreme frailty rather than senility, like a lightbulb that stays on even if you put it on a dimmer. But to make the analogy a little harder, the whole issue in a re-election campaign isn’t whether the light hits your filament. The question is whether voters should take this opportunity to change a light bulb. Every flicker is evidence that change is needed, and if we force Biden into his usual role during the campaign, we’ll likely see frequent flickers (if not burnout).
Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that Biden feels this, that he feels not only buried in egomania, but also trapped by his own terrible choice as vice president. If he drops out and anoints Kamala Harris, it would make it even more likely that she would lose to Donald Trump. But if he drops out and doesn’t support his No. 2, he will expose himself to a narrative of identitarian betrayal — an aging white president stabbing his first woman of color. – and there will be months of bloodshed within the party. Betrayals, personal and ideological dramas constantly swirl.
There is no easy escape from these dilemmas. But the best approach for Biden is clearly an outdated one. While he accepts the need for drama and bloodshed, he should condense everything into a format originally designed to deal with intraparty competition: the Democratic National Convention.
That means not withdrawing today, tomorrow, or any day while the party’s primaries are still underway. Instead, Biden will continue to win the delegates he promised, continue to tout improved economic data, and continue to attack Donald Trump — who will remain out of the race until August and the convention. He will shock the world by announcing his withdrawal, decline any expressions of support, and invite an invitation to a party convention. Delegates will choose his successor.
The pain continues. But so too is the excitement and spectacle, something Biden himself seems too old to provide. On the other hand, any suffering would be much shorter than a long preliminary battle between Harris and Gavin Newsom or Gretchen Whitmer. The closeness of the general election will create a strong incentive for Harris and other disappointed losers to embrace backroom proposals and go along with them if the convention battles don’t go their way. And this format would encourage the party as an institution, rather than the party as a mass electorate, to do its traditional job and choose the ticket with the most national appeal.
Will President Trump and the Republican Party have a field day attacking Democratic Party insiders who have implemented swift policies for the people? That’s true, but if the chosen ticket looks more popular and competent, and is less obviously older, the number of relieved voters will surely outnumber the angry ones. .
This plan also has the benefit of being able to be scrapped if I’m completely wrong. Biden has actually been vigorous in his campaign, leading Trump by 5 points by the start of August. Similar to my previous suggestion that Joe Manchin should run as a third-party candidate on an interim basis to see how the Trump-Biden race goes (also a good idea!), the convention Considering a no vote would allow Biden to respond sensitively to events. — Be persistent when there really is no other option, but leave the country open to escape from a choice that looks like divine punishment at the moment.