Mr. Trump, immersed in adoration for South Carolina officials who lined up behind him like third graders chosen as a teacher’s pet, left before he knew what the high turnout had predicted. That means his victory wasn’t as “huge” as he promised. He won 54.9 percent at the University of South Carolina in November 2016 and 55.1 percent in 2020. He received just 59.8% of the vote Saturday in a mostly Republican primary.
Charleston and Columbia are the fastest-growing states in the nation, and the two states with voter demographics most similar to the rest of the country are Charleston and Columbia. There, Haley won 62% and 58%, respectively. Presumably, a significant number of Trumpkins value the future satisfaction of defeating Joe Biden over the immediate pleasure of coming together as a tribe. They may still realize that while Trump vs. Biden is a close call, Haley vs. Biden is a landslide for the former, and the outcome of a negative vote could create Republican control of Congress. do not have.
Brookings Institution scholars William A. Galston and Elaine Kamarck write at the Progressive Policy Institute that in 17 elections from 1920 to 1984, 10 winners won the popular vote by at least 10 points. 5 people wrote that they earned at least 20 points. In nine elections from 1988 to 2020, no candidate won by even a 10-point margin. Haley will likely achieve such a margin this year. And it is very likely that Mr. Trump will lose the popular vote for a third time.
It is also important to note that in 2020, women outnumbered men by 4 to 6 percentage points. Women supported Biden 55% to 44%, according to an AP VoteCast poll. According to Edison data, it’s 57 percent versus 42 percent. Women contributed to Biden’s narrow victory.
Like a cold pizza washed down with a flat beer, the once-spiky Trump is the epitome of obsolescence. I feel sorry for you. It is difficult to violate when there are no norms left to violate. Being a member of the Trump cult used to be a thrilling prank and an act of disrespect for the Republican “establishment.” By now, even the most unsuspecting Trumpkins should have noticed him. teeth Establishment of a party.only One A Republican lawmaker, South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman, has publicly supported Haley. For most of the rest, who remember Theodore Roosevelt’s wonderful description of a spine carved out of a banana, his whims are orders (regarding Ukraine, borders, budgets, etc.).
They may not understand the importance of a low ceiling beyond the hard floor of Trump support. Analyst Charlie Cook said Trump’s approval ratings ranged from a high of 49 percent on Gallup to a low of 34 while the president hovered within a narrow 15-point range. . Of Trump’s nine elected predecessors (excluding Gerald Ford), Trump had the smallest gap between highs and lows of 27 points for John Kennedy. 31 point spread between Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon and Barack Obama. Ronald Reagan is in the 32 point range. Bill Clinton is 37th. The candidates with the largest differences were Jimmy Carter (47th), George H.W. Bush (60th), and George W. Bush (65th). President Trump has been relatively calm, and unlike his other predecessors, his approval rating has always been below 50 percent.
What Cook calls “full-fledged tribalism” is recent, with Republicans and Democrats becoming “virtually monolithic” in their presidential candidates and support for each party’s president. And it is not eternal, because there is nothing.
Given the inevitable on Super Tuesday (March 5th), if Ms. Haley continues to provoke Mr. Trump’s annoying claim that their opinions are invalid, we have not heard anything yet.46 State Republicans (and others eligible to participate) may be appalled and excited. If this were the case, owners would have difficulty controlling his unpleasant temper and would constantly threaten his calm.
There is a strong theory in political circles that Trump’s nomination should be expected and philosophically accepted. But he is an airship filled with two lighter-than-air gases: the charisma of wealth and an aura of invincibility among Republicans. He told a comical lie about the former. Haley can continue to eliminate the latter.
On August 11, 1951, with more than two-thirds of the season completed, the Brooklyn Dodgers led the New York Giants by 13.5 games. But the Dodgers experienced the World Series sitting on their couch.