Trying to ignore the reality that there is a wealth of evidence against him in the January 6, 2021 incident, and that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg could relatively easily secure a conviction for falsifying business records. Even determined Republicans might be better off deciding to ignore reality. Likelihood of conviction. It’s long past time for Republicans to face an unpleasant reality. There is a good chance that Trump will be convicted of one or more felonies after he is nominated. So what?
The constitution does not prohibit convicted criminals from holding public office, even if they have already been sentenced. (It’s hard enough to stop him when the language of Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment expressly prohibits the insurrectionist and his collaborators from holding federal office. )
But polls consistently show Trump in high position. Even among Republicans If convicted, it will collapse. According to a recent Gallup poll, “Less than half (46%) of Republicans are willing to vote for someone who has been charged with a felony, and even fewer are willing to vote for someone who has been convicted of a crime ( 35%). (Some wonder if Republicans realize he has already been indicted.) Only 21% of independents were willing to vote for a convicted candidate.
Even if the MAGA cultists stuck with him after his conviction, some Republicans and most independents likely won’t. surely, who Republicans should consider the consequences of a conviction and what they can do instead of electing a felon to office.
Trump will likely claim that any conviction was rigged. He vows to prevail on appeal. Or he might argue that it is more important than ever that he elects himself to pardon himself. (Whether there is a viable appeal and/or whether a “self-pardon” survives constitutional review will not sway him or his MAGA supporters.) Cheap Republicans, Cold Inside Interested parties and donors may become dismayed, fearing a major failure in the election. But without a Plan B, Republicans will likely stick with President Trump. (It’s not like they weren’t warned about the possibility of being dragged in by a convicted candidate.)
What is the escape route for those involved if convicted? Republicans are considering clarifying party rules to give Trump the freedom to push him out if he is convicted. I might. Elaine Kamarck told the Brookings Institution last year that if a candidate dies or becomes “incompetent” after the primary but before the convention, the convention will choose the candidate, and “the primaries have the upper hand.” “It will become something like a party convention before it became a party convention,” he wrote.
But does a conviction amount to incompetence? The party, which has a majority of Trump supporters, will have to make a decision.That’s enough reason for any sensible Republican to start thinking now Regarding clarifying what constitutes “incapacity.”
If the candidate dies or becomes incapacitated; rear As Kamarck explained, the Republican National Committee will choose the candidates at the convention. Does the RNC have the guts to slam a convicted Trump as “incompetent” to save the party? It will be the political brawl to end all brawls.Explaining the rules again now You may be able to prevent a lot of anxiety in the future. So unless Republicans come up with a definition of “incompetence” that would throw President Trump out if he is convicted, they face the very real prospect of political disaster.
Republican voters have lived in denial for years. They ignored the evidence of Trump’s alleged crimes stemming from January 6th and dismissed the New York state charges as trivial. Now that we know that Trump will be indicted, that the judge and prosecutors will face him, and that the jury cannot be replaced, plan for the very real possibility that he will be convicted. It may be time to start building up.parable They are They are confident that he is innocent, but they will certainly understand that there is a risk that the jury will not agree.
In the month before the South Carolina primary, Nikki Haley, currently President Trump’s only party nominee, said Republicans should make sure they don’t ignore the risks. If she can’t dissuade him from nominating an indicted man with a losing streak in court, she might at least be able to persuade the RNC to take precautions to avoid an election debacle. do not have. Otherwise, the Republican Party may face electoral annihilation.