“Israel must understand that the Biden administration’s level of dissatisfaction with its mishandling of the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip has reached its breaking point,” said Martin Indyk, a two-time U.S. ambassador to Israel. Ta. “If Israel launches an attack in Rafah without adequate protection for the displaced population, it could create an unprecedented crisis in U.S.-Israel relations, including arms supply.”
Vice President Harris and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan sharply questioned the plan to attack Rafah on Monday in separate meetings with Israeli War Cabinet Secretary Benny Gantz, who is visiting Washington, Axios reports. did. Gantz is seen as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s biggest political rival, but the two leaders are said to have agreed to attack Rafah and destroy four Hamas battalions.
The Biden administration is concerned that the Rafah plan is half-baked and will worsen the dire situation in Gaza without ending the war. Administration officials say there is no clear plan for how to protect the more than 1 million Palestinians forced into the Rafah region along the Egyptian border by fighting further north.
In a February phone call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden said the Rafah attack was a “credible and viable way to ensure the safety and support of more than 1 million displaced people,” according to a White House statement. We should not proceed without a plan.” Subsequent events have further deepened the administration’s concerns that Israel has no plan to safely relocate all these refugees and is not adequately addressing the plight of the Palestinian civilian population as a whole.
Restrictions on U.S. arms supplies to Israel would cause a sharp rift in relations and cause political turmoil. In a somewhat similar situation, in 1975 President Gerald Ford and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger “reevaluated” the U.S.-Israel relationship and urged Israel to agree to a withdrawal agreement from the Sinai Peninsula after the 1973 war. He has proposed cutting military aid to put pressure on the United States. Arab-Israeli war. Ford and Kissinger persisted in the face of intense criticism from Israel supporters. Eventually Israel conceded and the conflict was resolved several months later.
By banning the use of U.S. military aid for the Rafah attack, the administration echoes its understanding with Ukraine that U.S. long-range missiles cannot be used to target Russian territory. It is possible to claim that there is.
Last week, more than 100 people were killed and 700 injured in a pre-dawn relief convoy in northern Gaza, adding to the administration’s concerns that Israel does not have an adequate plan for Palestinian civilians in Gaza. It has increased. Some Palestinians rushed to find food. Some people were crushed by rescue vehicles. Some were shot dead by Israeli soldiers. U.S. officials said Israel commissioned a convoy of Palestinian trucks but did not provide the necessary security to prevent disaster.
The Biden administration has been hoping for a better outcome in the Gaza Strip for months, but it is beginning to plan for the worst, or at least the most likely scenario. The attempt to avert the Rafah disaster is one example, but there are others.
The administration is focusing its hopes for easing tensions on its pre-Ramadan hostage release plan, which is expected to begin around March 10. This would halt the fighting for at least six weeks and ease the path for humanitarian aid. But Hamas has so far refused to accept the mooted ceasefire, and the regime is considering what to do if no deal is reached as Ramadan begins.
Among the options is that the regime could try to put further pressure on Hamas through its dialogue partners Egypt and Qatar, and if it cannot persuade its colleagues in the Gaza Strip to release the hostages, it could send Hamas representatives to Qatar. may be forced to expel him from Doha.
The regime is also planning unilateral measures to flood Gaza with humanitarian aid, including by airdropping, land convoys and setting up a new sea terminal to offload cargo ships offshore. Another sign of realism is that Saudi Arabia’s complex “next day” plan for normalization with Israel, with a path to a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank, cannot be achieved this year even if the war ends The government recognizes that this may be the case. tomorrow.
The heightened tensions with Prime Minister Netanyahu stem from Biden’s feeling that Israel is not heeding U.S. warnings and advice and that relations between the U.S. and Israel have become one-sided. The administration feels that Prime Minister Netanyahu is not responding to U.S. demands while supporting Israeli interests at great political cost at home and abroad. Israel insists that any space between U.S. and Israeli policies will only benefit Hamas. But Israel will not compromise to close the gap.
Simply put, Biden wants Israel to be a good ally and protect U.S. interests and the lives of Palestinian civilians as it seeks to end the devastating war that began with the brutal Hamas attack on October 7. There is. A severance of arms supply ties was once unthinkable. But as U.S. patience wears thin, administration officials appear to be considering it.