More than any other event, Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 fueled this sentiment. Today’s Ukrainian nationalism transcends region and language and reflects a deep determination to establish an identity defined by separation from, and even antipathy toward, Russia. In fact, Putin may unwittingly go down in history as one of its main catalysts. Such an outcome is especially ironic given his belief that Russians and Ukrainians are truly one people.
His war backfired not only in Ukraine, but also in Europe. The European Union, shaken by the invasion, summoned a common spirit to support Ukraine. While there has been some division in their approach to Russia in the past, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán being the lone exception, they have largely acted in unison to oppose Mr. Putin’s acts of aggression. Equally important, Ukraine’s path toward EU membership, which has been fiercely opposed in Moscow for years, is now largely on track, if not a short distance away. One sign of progress: Ukraine, along with Moldova, formally began accession negotiations late last year.
Next is NATO. There is no doubt that Russia’s invasion was an attempt to forestall an invasion of the east by allies that Putin has long seen as a threat. In this incident, Russia’s attack on Ukraine prompted two more countries, Finland and Sweden, to seek NATO membership. Neither had any desire to enlist before the invasion, and both had first-class armies. Russia’s addition would further enclose the country, particularly with the Baltic Sea and the 830-mile land border it shares with Finland.
Moreover, the Russian attack shocked NATO countries other than the United States, causing them to reconsider their long-held aversion to increased military spending. NATO estimates that Canada and allied members’ combined annual military spending will increase from 2% in 2022 to 8.3% in 2023. This year, 18 member states reportedly plan to meet the goal of spending 2% of NATO. Gross domestic product for the military increased sixfold in 10 years. Even in Germany, which has historically been sensitive to Russia’s security interests and advocated engagement with Russia, the mood is changing. The country’s defense minister now warns that Russia poses a serious and growing threat.
Of course, Ukraine is keen to join the alliance, but this is a nightmare scenario for the Kremlin. But even if its aspirations are not fulfilled, which seems likely at least in the short term, Ukraine will be able to train its soldiers, equip its armed forces, and by signing agreements on technology transfer and joint development. It will continue to seek assistance from NATO countries in building a modern defense industry. production. Even though Ukraine is a non-NATO member, it is unlikely to become completely non-aligned due to its substantial defense ties with the West.