Editor’s note: Peter Bergen is a national security analyst for CNN, vice president of New America, professor of practice at Arizona State University, and host of the Audible Podcast.in the room” is also on apple and spotify. He is the author of “.The rise and fall of Osama bin Laden” The views expressed in this commentary are his own.read more opinion On CNN.
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Multiple media reports said last night’s retaliatory strikes on more than 85 targets in Iraq and Syria were aimed at “sending a message” following a drone attack by Iran-backed militias that killed three U.S. service members in Jordan. He agrees with the Biden administration’s argument that it was
But what exactly was that message, and how was it received?
Consider how these strikes were put together. On Tuesday, President Joe Biden told reporters he had made a decision on future actions, while the White House national security spokesperson said, “You can reasonably expect us to respond in an appropriate manner…” said. Members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps living in Iraq and Syria are given days’ notice to pack their bags and head elsewhere.
The Biden administration has also repeatedly stated that it does not want war with Iran. But to establish deterrence, it is also important to leave strategic ambiguity about what to do, rather than what not to do. I may be able to do it do.
Given the history of most of these U.S. attacks against Iranian proxies in the Middle East failing, the U.S. response and subsequent military action may also prevent Iranian proxies from further targeting U.S. targets and vessels in the region. It is unlikely to deter attacks. To limit the possibility of a broader regional war, the United States must focus its efforts on addressing the root cause of this escalating conflict: the continuing war in Gaza.
Previous US strikes have failed to deter Iran and its proxies.The United States repetition Despite attacking Houthi targets in Yemen in recent weeks, Iranian Houthi militants continue to fire missiles at commercial ships in the Red Sea and nearly hit a U.S. warship on Tuesday.On Friday, the U.S. military shoot down Twelve Houthi drones flew for about 12 hours. On Saturday, the United States fired six Houthi anti-ship cruise missiles, hitting at least 30 targets in 10 locations, hours before the United States and Britain carried out additional strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.
We’ve seen this many times. In January 2020, the Trump administration ordered a drone strike that killed Qasem Soleimani, the most important Iranian military commander, in the Iraqi capital Baghdad, calling it a deterrent against attacks on American personnel in the region. Less than a week later, Iran fired ballistic missiles at two U.S. military bases in Iraq, leaving more than 100 U.S. soldiers being treated for traumatic brain injuries.
The U.S. drone strike that killed an Iranian-backed militia leader in Baghdad last month had similarly unwanted ramifications. This gave the Iraqi government more ammunition in negotiations with the United States for the withdrawal of the 2,500 American troops still stationed in Iraq, a move that would achieve an important Iranian policy objective. Become.
Let’s not forget that the Biden administration had already made a grave mistake when it withdrew all U.S. troops from Iran’s neighboring country, Afghanistan, in the summer of 2021. You can imagine the high fives in Tehran at that time.
The withdrawal from Iraq comes especially as a UN report released last week confirms earlier reports that al-Qaeda’s “de facto” leader Saif al-Adl continues to reside in Iran. It will be another failure that only serves the interests of
From Iran’s perspective, its efforts to replace the United States as a major player in the Middle East region appear to be well underway.
What we need is for these attacks not to advance America’s strategic objectives of deterring Iran and its proxies from attacking American targets and allies, but rather to ensure that Iran is able to expand its reach from Yemen to the Middle East. There is a clear recognition that the country’s influence continues to expand. 1,500 miles north to Lebanon in the south.
Prussian general and military strategist Carl von Clausewitz said, “The first, highest, and most far-reaching act of judgment that politicians and commanders must make…establishes the kind of war they will embark on.” He is famous for saying, “This is true.”
Does the US have any real clues as to what kind of conflict it is embarking on? Of course, there are no easy answers, and the armchair warriors in Washington, D.C. pressuring Biden to blow up Iranian targets are left wondering what the “next day” will look like and the possibility of an Iranian crisis. You don’t have to endure sexual ramifications. broader regional conflicts in the Middle East;
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin also said on Friday that the strikes in Iraq and Syria were just “the beginning of our response,” but what has been seen so far suggests additional strikes could help. There’s not much evidence. Although a U.S. cyberattack against Iran could damage key elements of the Iranian military’s command and control structure, preparation for such an attack could take weeks.
The United States must act quickly to address the root causes of the current regional conflagration engulfing the Middle East. That includes halting the war in Gaza, freeing Israeli and American hostages held by Hamas, and developing a plausible plan for the “day after” the gunfire disappears in Gaza.
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The plan does not include cutting funding to UNRWA, the only agency that can continue to provide food, shelter and education to Gazans. UNRWA has been doing so for decades. UNRWA was right to launch an investigation and immediately fire the 13 personnel Israel says played a role in the October 7 Hamas attack. But the reality is that Arab states will not be able or willing to feed and house the nearly 2 million Gazans, and Israel could do so as an occupying force without facing a violent local uprising. The idea of being deaf is nothing more than wishful thinking on the part of Arab countries. Highest rank.
The Biden administration seeks to balance the U.S. strategic goal of helping Israel dismantle Hamas’s military wing with the release of the remaining Israeli and American hostages held in the country, while containing the metastasizing regional conflict in the Middle East. As a result, we are being forced to choose from a menu of difficult choices. Gaza also contains threats from Iran and its proxies.
This article has been updated to reflect Saturday’s attack on Houthi targets.