There was a long line of idle boats at the edge of the canal. Recent rains have begun to reverse the sharp decline in traffic that began in the fall, but the daily number of 24 vessels remains well below the pre-drought level of about 36 vessels. The tonnage of cargo passing through the canal has decreased since the start of the normal rainy season. From May to September, it forced shippers to seek alternative routes and disrupted supply chains in sectors such as agriculture and energy.
Panama's government is rushing to repair and preserve the canal, which generates more than $3.3 billion in tolls and is a major contributor to the country's economy. Still, the prospect of continued drought raises serious questions. The question is: to what extent can we design long-term solutions in the face of inevitable climate change?
This is not just a Panama problem. This fall's drought in the Amazon rainforest congested river transport routes and threatened Brazil's agricultural economy. Germany has proposed dredging parts of the Rhine River after the worst drought to hit Europe in 500 years will cause water levels to drop in 2022, forcing ships to operate at 25% capacity. did. The historic drought that hit the Mississippi River, which carries about 500 million tons of cargo annually, required dredging of the channel to maintain barge navigation.
The Panama Canal is in a particularly vulnerable position, requiring vast amounts of fresh water to operate the locks that pull ships up to cross this strip of land between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Much of this water is washed into the ocean, where it mixes with seawater and is too salty to be used for agriculture or human consumption.
A short-term solution is to release water from Lake Alajuela into the canal. But more water will be needed. And the government is considering more extreme measures, including a multibillion-dollar plan to dam the Indio River and create a reservoir to pump fresh water through the mountains to Gatun Lake. Another idea is to seed clouds to bring back rain.
Canal customers are worried. Perhaps the Panamanians can devise a corrective plan that will buy them time. However, it is unclear whether Panama will be able to provide a final answer. Along with other challenges, including renewed U.S. protectionism, rising tensions with China, and Houthi attacks disrupting trade through the Suez Canal, the Panama drought increases uncertainty about the future of globalization. ing.
Indeed, several lucrative shipping routes were opened in the North Pole. But like everything else, what would happen to the global economy if companies had to turn to moving their cargo overland or through the Strait of Magellan to various parts of South America?
It may seem naive to worry about the impact of climate change on global trade. Drought brings no end to human suffering. Just in the Horn of Africa, 23 million people will be severely food insecure by the end of 2022 due to drought. That year, droughts, storms and floods forced nearly 33 million people to relocate.
Still, it would be foolhardy to ignore the impact of climate change on the drivers of globalization. Threats to global growth will make it even more difficult to address the plight of the most vulnerable. A worsening global economy will make it difficult to address poverty and hunger.
However, redesigning your environment is unlikely to provide a complete solution. Maybe cloud seeds could help the Panama Canal. Other reactions may emerge over time. However, creative engineering is likely to be needed around the world in the coming decades to address a variety of new climate-related humanitarian and infrastructure challenges. After all, prevention by stopping the greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming is the only way to stop the list of pressing climate-related threats to the global economy from growing even longer.