Twenty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Dutch active tank inventory was reduced to zero. This is an example of the large-scale disarmament and disarmament that occurred across Europe after the end of the Cold War. “This feels like a funeral,” a Dutch tank commander said at a ceremony to mark the moment the last heavy-track vehicle was retired in 2011 before being sold off.
Now, Mark Rutte, who took over as Prime Minister of the Netherlands just before he mothballed the last tank, is the front-runner to lead the US-led NATO, which once again faces a long-term test of will. There is. Together with the Kremlin. And the question here at NATO headquarters in Brussels is that if Rutte, who will soon step down as Europe's second-longest-serving prime minister, is elected to lead the alliance, many will How should we respond to what we see as two major threats?
For one, President Vladimir Putin's bloody invasion of Ukraine and Russia's surprisingly rapid transformation into a war economy with soaring military spending have led many Europeans to believe that Russia's opposition to NATO's fragile eastern flank is There are concerns that this may be a sign of further invasion. Another is to disrespect the alliance, skewer member states that spend meager sums on their own defense, and threaten to “never help” Washington's European allies if they are attacked.70 This is the specter of President Donald Trump's second term, which tore the years-old NATO deterrence principle to shreds. .
Last spring, when I was at NATO headquarters, all eyes were on Ukraine. Now, one Alliance ambassador told me, “All of our discussions are about Trump.”
Although these are vastly different threats, their harmonizing effect is driving historic rearmament by NATO's European members. Collective defense spending, which began to gradually increase after Putin invaded and illegally annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula a decade ago, is now rapidly accelerating.
Still, the bloc's redrawn, highly detailed region of the alliance is a 4,000-page classified document drafted under the direction of U.S. Army Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the European Union's supreme commander. Few believe it is growing fast enough to fund war programs. Few believe that Europe is ready to deal with the growing threat posed by the Axis powers of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. And no one thinks it's enough to replace the tens of billions of dollars in new U.S. aid to Ukraine currently frozen on Capitol Hill by hardline Republicans.
This year, 20 of NATO's 31 members, including the United States, are expected to meet or exceed NATO's defense spending target of 2% of gross domestic product, set by President Vladimir Putin a decade ago after the annexation of Crimea. ing. This reflects about $450 billion in additional spending by Washington's NATO allies over 10 years, a figure the alliance likes to tout, but an average annual increase of just 4.25%.
And although Europe's overall economic power is many times larger than Russia's, Russia's efforts to increase its defense budget pale in comparison to Russia's roughly 70% increase in military spending this year compared to 2023. do.
NATO officials now believe that the convergence of strategic threats and the alliance's own blueprint for securing its borders warrant a larger effort. They are discussing an increase of at least one-third of today's total military spending by member states other than the United States, with the goal of strengthening five key areas. long range firepower. IT and communication. logistics; and heavy ground combat forces.
Its accumulation over more than a decade would impose a bill on NATO's non-US members of at least $100 billion a year, requiring major political, economic, and psychological changes. That would very likely mean cuts to Europe's generous social welfare programs, which European officials say could cost $1.6 trillion a year, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Intensified efforts to cut emissions to zero could be slowed.
Europe has deep pockets, but not enough depth to simultaneously achieve military, social, and environmental goals.
Confronting NATO's adversaries will not require armies as large as they were during the Cold War, when European powers had hundreds of thousands of troops. But even in an era of technology-driven warfare, NATO's projected military buildup will require massive modernization and expansion of a force that has been atrophied for more than three decades.
If Rutte is chosen to replace Jens Stoltenberg as the next NATO Secretary-General, that would be Rutte's top priority. If Trump is re-elected, a close second priority will be managing the mercurial president. Mr. Rutte, who dealt with Mr. Trump with flattery and firmness during his presidency, may be well suited for the job.