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Opinion | Japan, caught between China and the US, needs a grand new plan

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Domestically, the Kishida administration deeply unpopular, In November last year, the public’s disapproval rate reached 65%.After another recession, Japan overtaken by Germany It is the world’s third largest economy and could soon be replaced by India.
To make matters worse, these moments of domestic vulnerability coincide with extreme geopolitical uncertainty. Japan is facing China’s resurgence and potential as a full-fledged technological and military power. Return of Donald Trump He will take the White House next year, and his term in office could be even more destructive than the previous one.
On the surface, Japan is a dynamic country. During a recent visit to Tokyo, I noticed the changes that society has brought about. Olympic, which pioneered a major public infrastructure project.Investors seem bullish and the stock market is doing great best in decades.
A man walks in front of a financial monitor showing the Nikkei stock average closing above 38,000 points for the first time in 34 years in Tokyo on February 15.Photo provided by: Kyodo
However, no matter how you look at it, Japan’s miraculous transformation occurred over a century after the war. Meiji Restoration It lasted from the late 19th century until the economic boom of the 1980s, but it appears to have ended. In recent decades, East Asian countries have steadily eclipsed the world, most notably China, which dethroned Japan as the world’s second-largest economy in 2010.

Japan’s decline is perhaps more dramatic than that of any other major power in recent memory. In the 1990s, Japan’s gross domestic product accounted for 15% of the world economy. Currently, that percentage remains at just over 4%. During the same period, China’s share of global GDP rose from 2% to 18%.

In East Asia, the situation is even more dramatic. From 1990 to 2014, Japan’s share of regional GDP collapsed from more than 70% to about 20%, and Japan’s share of regional trade fell from more than 45% to just 15%. In contrast, China’s regional trade expanded from less than 10% to more than 40% over the same period, and its share of GDP rose from less than 10% to more than 50%.

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From economic “miracles” to lessons: Japan’s development and recession

From economic “miracles” to lessons: Japan’s development and recession

Only 20 years ago Japan’s defense budget It was 60 percent larger than China. Currently, China’s defense budget is five times that of Japan.

For Japan, China’s challenges go far beyond mere numbers. Japanese officials, in particular, are concerned about China’s rapid advances in cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum communications, and renewable energy.

China recently added insult to injury deposed Japan It is the world’s largest exporter of cars and is far ahead in electric vehicle production. While Japan supports U.S. efforts to deny China access to high-end semiconductors, it is also concerned about possible retaliation from China, which has become an increasingly dominant player in global supply chains. There is.

What would happen if China declared a protectionist trade war against the United States and the West?

In particular, China has the ability to not only restrict access to its huge consumer market, but also deny Japan access to rare earths and critical minerals in the event of an economic war. Concerns about unforeseen circumstances, particularly Taiwan, are also growing.

Japan is therefore considering how it can support its allies and directly respond to an attack on Taiwan in the near future. this is, Japan-Philippines-US security frameworkThis is largely shaped by concerns about the possibility of war with mainland China over Taiwan.

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Taiwan fends off mainland China’s coast guard in series of tense exchanges

Taiwan fends off mainland China’s coast guard in series of tense exchanges

However, Japan’s defense policy calculations are primarily shaped by its alliance with the United States. And this is precisely why Japan’s strategic elite is deeply disturbed by the prospects of a second Trump administration. The second Trump administration is likely to be even more unpredictable and transactional than the first.

Recent statements from former presidents – the most noteworthy threat Reigniting the trade war through massive tariffs and forcing allies to: “Pay your membership fee” – only reinforced the strategic dismay of Japanese officials. Given the great complexity of the challenge with China, Japanese leaders are highly wary of unpredictable or major changes in the direction of U.S. foreign policy.

It would be a nightmare if Donald Trump became president of the United States again.

However, the second Trump administration, which prefers an “America first” unilateralism, is unlikely to adopt a truly consultative and multilateral approach to Asia strategy. This, in turn, could undermine trust and undermine cooperation between the United States and its key allies, particularly Japan.

In fact, few are convinced that Kishida, a deeply unpopular and cautious leader in Japan, is in a position to hire effectively. “Personal Diplomacy” As with the late Shinzo Abe, with Trump.

As a result, Japan is increasingly caught between a resurgent China and an unpredictable ally, the United States. However, it remains to be seen whether this new era of geopolitical uncertainty will usher in an entirely new grand strategy for Japan, which has operated largely in America’s shadow since World War II.

Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based scholar and author of Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific and the forthcoming Duterte’s Rise.



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