Let’s consider some numbers. Last week, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released its latest 10-year economic and budget forecast. This number appears to be a significant improvement over the previous year, and immigration is the main reason for this.
CBO is currently pricing in a previously unexpected surge in immigration starting in 2022, which the agency assumes will continue for several years. These immigrants are more likely to work than native-born immigrants, primarily because they skew younger. This influx of working-age immigrants will more than offset the expected retirement of the aging native-born population.
That in turn will lead to better economic growth. In a memo accompanying the forecast, CBO Director Phil Swagel wrote that the immigration-driven workforce reshuffle would result in “approximately $7 trillion in GDP and revenue growth from 2023 to 2034. “We estimate it would be about $7 trillion more than it would have otherwise been.” ”
Understood? The unexpected increase in immigration has resulted in a multi-trillion dollar windfall both to the overall economy and to federal tax coffers.
The CBO is not the only observer to highlight the benefits of the recent influx of foreign-born workers.
As I reported in 2021, “missing” migrant workers are part of the labor shortage and supply chain issues, initially due to pandemic border closures and later due to immigration backlogs. It was the cause. But since then, work permit approvals and other bureaucratic processes have accelerated. Fed officials said this normalization of immigration has boosted job growth and helped unwind supply chains.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell recently said on CBS News’ “60 Minutes” that “over the long term, the U.S. economy has benefited from immigration. A big part of the story of the market returning to a better balance is that immigration has returned to typical pre-pandemic levels.”
Increasing the number of people ready and willing to work is not the only economic benefit. Immigration is also associated with other positive growth effects, such as higher rates of entrepreneurship and disproportionate contributions to science, research, and innovation.
Also consider the national security, humanitarian, and religious arguments for providing shelter to persecuted people around the world.
None of this will alleviate short-term stress on the U.S. economy. poor management immigration flow. These challenges clearly exist both at the Southwest border and in cities like New York and Chicago, where busloads of asylum seekers end up (by choice or not). Without additional resources to manage this influx and expedite the processing of allowing immigrants to work in the United States and returning them to their home countries, this burden will continue.
But there are ways to harness the energy and talent of the Storm to repair our tattered immigration system. Some of these tools were included in the bipartisan Senate border bill, but now appear to be dysfunctional.
Instead, Republican lawmakers are scaring away foreign-born people and portraying immigration as an invasion. Congressman Mike Collins (R-Ga.) I blew the dog whistle last week., ‘Import the Third World. Be third world. ”
Sadly, the faction working to turn America into a developing country is not immigrants, but Collins’ own party. After all, it is the Republican Party that supports the deterioration of the rule of law. The return of the would-be dictator. Destruction of public education and health care systems. Repealing water standards and other environmental regulations. and relaxing child labor laws (instead of having immigrants fill open positions, of course).
America has historically attracted hard-working immigrants from all over the world. because Its people and economy are increasingly protected from such “Third World”-like instability, which Republican politicians are now inviting.
Ronald Reagan, a former leader of the conservative movement, often spoke poignantly about this phenomenon. In one of his final speeches as president, he described the wealth that draws immigrants to our country and how immigration doubles that wealth.
Thanks to new waves of people arriving in this land of opportunity, we are a country that is forever young, full of energy and new ideas, always on the cutting edge, always leading the world to the next frontier. This quality is essential to our future as a nation. If we close the door to new Americans, our leadership in the world will quickly disappear.
— https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/remarks-presentation-ceremony-presidential-medal-freedom-5
Reagan’s words reflected the poetry of immigration. The prose has also been quite convincing, as we’ve seen since with the economic numbers, among other indicators.