There are two things I believe about the growing crisis in the Middle East.
We are about to see the Biden administration’s new strategy unfold to deal with this multi-front war involving Gaza, Iran, Israel, and the region. What I hope for is a “Biden Doctrine” that responds to the seriousness and complexity of this dangerous moment.
And if we don’t see such a big, bold doctrine, the regional crisis will strengthen Iran, isolate Israel, and tatter America’s ability to positively influence events on the ground. It will be transferred.
The Biden Doctrine (which I call the convergence of strategic thinking and planning discussed in my reporting) will have three paths.
One trajectory includes strong military retaliation against Iranian proxies and operatives in the region in response to the killing of three U.S. soldiers by a drone believed to have been launched by pro-Iranian forces at a base in Jordan. It will include a strong and decisive stance against Iran. Iraqi militia.
The second track involves unprecedented U.S. diplomatic efforts to promote a Palestinian state. “NOW”. That includes some form of U.S. recognition of a demilitarized Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, where the Palestinians have developed a defined set of reliable institutions and security capabilities. It will only come into existence once we guarantee that this nation can survive. It could never threaten Israel. Biden administration officials are consulting with experts inside and outside the U.S. government about various forms of recognition of a Palestinian state.
A third path would be to significantly expand the U.S.-Saudi security alliance, which would include normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations—if the Israeli government If they are prepared to accept a diplomatic process leading to a demilitarized Palestinian state led by .
If the administration can pull this together—and that’s a big deal—the Biden Doctrine could be the biggest strategic realignment in the region since the 1979 Treaty of Camp David.
But for the Biden Doctrine to be successful, these three tracks absolutely need to be tied together. I think U.S. officials understand this.
Because I’m sure of this. In light of Hamas’s barbaric attacks on Israel, October 7th is forcing a fundamental rethink about the Middle East within the Biden administration. Israel’s massive retaliation against Hamas, which killed thousands of innocent Palestinian civilians in Gaza. escalation of attacks against Israeli and US personnel in the region; and the failure of Israel’s right-wing government to articulate its plans for governing Gaza the morning after the end of the war with Palestinian partners other than Hamas.
The ongoing reconsideration is that Iran, acting through its proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraq’s Houthis, and Shiite militias), will force us out of the region, annihilate Israel, and threaten our Arab allies. It shows that they recognize that they can no longer tolerate what they are trying to do. The Iranian government remains calm and will not pay any price.
And at the same time, it gives us the global legitimacy that the United States needs to counter Iran in a more aggressive way, a NATO ally, unless we stop letting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hold our policies. , a recognition that the United States will never be able to obtain an alliance between Arab and Muslim countries. We will begin building a credible and legitimate Palestinian Authority that can one day effectively govern Gaza and the West Bank and negotiate as a good neighbor to Israel along our final borders.
Nader Mousavizadeh, founder and CEO of geopolitical consulting firm Macro Advisory Partners and a senior advisor to then-United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan, called the new Biden doctrine “two “heavy calculation strategy”.
“You are embarking on an unprecedented effort to strategically call Iran’s bluff and at the same time lay the foundations for a demilitarized Palestinian state, something the United States has never done before,” Mousavizadeh said. There’s no way to do that,” he said. “Each truck requires the other to succeed. Each truck strengthens and legitimizes the others. and its Arab allies. This, combined with a genuine and bold U.S. commitment to a Palestinian state, provides the legitimacy to act against Iran and its most effective allies. , isolating Iran militarily and politically.”
I think this is exactly the case. It is long past time for the US to accuse both Iran and Prime Minister Netanyahu of bluffing.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is the reason I created this rule on Middle East reporting. All that matters is what they say in their own language in public. ”
While privately whispering to Biden that he might be ready to someday — perhaps — consider some kind of demilitarized Palestinian state, in public he has said the exact opposite in Hebrew. ing.
Fortunately, Biden is well aware that Prime Minister Netanyahu is only trying to drag him along. Sometimes age can be an advantage. The time has come to call a match between Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Ayatollah at the same time. The Biden Doctrine is the right way to do that.
We have allowed Iran to destroy any constructive efforts we have tried to build in the Middle East, as long as Tehran is below the threshold of attacking us directly. And at the same time, we seek to permanently block all forms of Palestinian statehood, even to the point of strengthening Hamas against the Palestinian Authority over the years to ensure that there is no unified Palestinian partner. It has tolerated the Netanyahu government.
“October. July 7th made it clear that our Iran policy and Israeli-Palestinian policy are broken,” Mousavizadeh said. “These policies have enabled and empowered Hamas to genocide Israel. “It has enabled the organization to try to force U.S. forces out of the region — deploying U.S. forces to prevent ISIS from returning and maintain a reasonable degree of stability in the region.”
All of this raises the question of who can hold the Tehran regime accountable for the way it “deploys toxic and destructive non-state actors across the region, contrary to the constructive objectives of its allies” in trying to build a more inclusive region. It also happened without any questions asked, he added.
For all these reasons, I believe, hope, and pray that the Biden Doctrine for the Middle East will become a reality. And so should Israelis.
Israel is currently being defeated on three fronts. Israel lost the war over Gaza. Even though Hamas has killed and raped Israelis, it is Israel that has been brought before the International Court of Justice in The Hague for civilian casualties caused in Gaza in an effort to eradicate Hamas fighters. embedded among civilians. Overextend in the long term by invading Gaza without any plan for how to find a legitimate non-Hamas Palestinian partner to effectively govern Gaza so that Israel can withdraw. Israel is losing its ability to keep Israel safe. They are also losing out in terms of regional stability. Israel, currently the target of a four-pronged Iranian onslaught by Iraq’s Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi and Shiite militias, is unable to generate the Arab and NATO allies needed to win the war. Can not. Because it refuses to do anything to foster a reliable and legitimate Palestinian partner.
If the Biden Doctrine emerges, “it will be good geopolitics abroad and it will be good politics at home,” Mousavizadeh concluded.
Stripping Tehran of the Palestinian card could deter Iran both militarily and politically. It could foster the status of a Palestinian state on terms consistent with Israel’s security, and at the same time create conditions for the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia on terms acceptable to the Palestinians.
And it’s a strategy that can work with Arab Americans on Lake Michigan and with Arab allies in the Persian Gulf. This is a strategy that could force a reckoning within Iranian, Palestinian, and Israeli politics.