The issue of homelessness is even more nuanced. The number of Americans experiencing unsheltered homelessness in 2023 will be 256,000, up from 226,000 just before the pandemic, according to an authoritative annual report released in December by the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is an increase of about 13% since then. According to HUD, the lowest number in recent history was 173,000 in 2015. The highest was 255,000 in 2007. The recent increase is tragic and has received public attention, but only gradually. For every 10 Americans who weren’t sheltering in place on the eve of the pandemic, he’s now 11.
The majority of homeless people are concentrated in a few states, including California, New York, Florida, Washington, and Texas, which account for more than a quarter of the nation’s total. But across California, homelessness increased by only 6% between 2020 and 2022, according to HUD. In New York state, it was down almost 19%.
Some cities saw even more disconcerting increases. According to HUD, nearly a quarter of the nation’s homeless people experience it in New York City and Los Angeles. New York’s population grew from nearly 78,000 just before the pandemic to 88,000 by 2023. In Los Angeles, the number of people experiencing homelessness increased by about 12 percent from 2022 to 2023. And although San Francisco is often referred to as the country’s homeless capital, homelessness there increased by only 6 percent between 2013 and 2022. In fact, between 2019 and 2022, the number of people experiencing unsheltered homelessness in the city fell from 5,200 to 4,400. In general, the pandemic year has not ushered in a new era for homelessness in America’s cities, but rather an extension of long-term trends. Homelessness is steadily increasing, and its concentration in a small number of cities suggests, among other remedies, a simple solution. We need more housing supply.
Drug use appears to be a growing problem, but data is patchy and patterns vary from city to city. In San Francisco, alcohol and drug use rates among homeless people in the city increased from 41% to 52% between 2017 and 2022, according to one study. In Los Angeles, overdose deaths among homeless people in the city nearly doubled from 2019 to 2021, and in New York, overdose deaths in shelters nearly doubled over the same period.In Portland, Oregon, drug use helped drive driving Homeless deaths in the city will increase by 53 percent in 2021.
But the more lasting legacy of urban ‘ruin’ may simply be that cities remain emptier than before. New York has had one of the most successful post-pandemic commercial real estate recoveries, but office traffic remains 19 percent below pre-pandemic levels. As of February 2023, subway ridership is only about 66 percent of pre-pandemic levels. Nationally, office visits are down 38% from previous levels. In San Francisco he was down 53%. According to the University of Toronto’s Downtown Revitalization Project, pedestrian counts in many prominent cities remain below 70% of previous levels. In 90% of city downtowns, car traffic remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.