Those spots, on which Schiff’s campaign spent nearly $5 million, are about the best political novice Steve Garvey wants for Schiff, according to media tracking firm AdImpact. Their aim is not to negate support for Mr. Schiff’s only significant Republican opponent, but to shore up support in the state’s right-leaning corner.
Garvey, best known for his career as a first baseman for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres decades ago, has a real chance of winning in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2-to-1. No one thinks that it is expensive. . And the truth is that Mr. Garvey has little interest in his campaign. (The subject line of a recent fundraising email was “Remember the 70’s?”)
So why a curveball commercial?
Mr. Schiff’s ad boosted Mr. Garvey’s poll numbers, likely putting him on the November ballot under California’s unusual primary system in which the top two candidates advance regardless of party. That’s enough to carry it. There are more than 20 candidates in the primary. Some of the latest polls have Garvey in second place, ahead of Democrats Katie Porter and Barbara Lee.
Porter, the darling of the activist left, is saying some awful things. (I promise this will be the last lame baseball pun I use in this column.) If she had come in second place, Schiff might actually have. Autumn competitive racing.
Schiff’s strategy is It’s cynical, but it’s becoming more common in California and elsewhere. In addition, Porter began running digital ads promoting things like: another Republican lawyer Eric Earley is a strong candidate with a support rating of just over 2% in polls, calling him “a real Republican threat in the California Senate race.” She hopes Mr. Early will cut into Mr. Garvey’s vote.
In an interview, Porter pointed out that early voting in California is low. “Given the current turnout, I think there are still a lot of ballots out there and a lot of loose ends and a lot of room for maneuver,” she said. “We are encouraged that we still have plenty of time to connect with millions of voters.”
The race to succeed Feinstein, who held the seat for 30 years, is a generational watershed for Democrats both nationally and here in the Golden State. It thus exposed some of the tensions and rifts within the Democratic Party, particularly over the war in Gaza. Mr. Schiff is the staunchest pro-Israel faction, and Mr. Lee called for a ceasefire the day after Hamas’s Oct. 7 terrorist attack. Mr. Porter has sought a compromise with vague calls for a “bilateral ceasefire.”
But other than their styles, there aren’t that many differences between the three leading Democrats in the race. For example, all said they would have voted against the bipartisan $118 billion border security and foreign aid bill that recently died in the Senate.
While Schiff is an institutionalist, Porter has a confrontational style and a talent for capturing viral moments. Her shots are often aimed at colleagues in Washington. This explains why only one other member of California’s House of Representatives party supported her. Meanwhile, the entire Democratic Party establishment in California, including the former president, is virtually House Speaker Nancy Pelosi lined up behind Schiff.
Mr. Schiff, known nationally as one of former President Donald Trump’s chief opponents and serving as the House presiding officer during the Senate’s impeachment trial, has appeared more frequently in my days following the campaign. The following California-centric issues were discussed: We’re building more homes and cleaning water in the state’s vast agricultural region, the Central Valley.
“People look at the candidates and say, policy-wise, there’s not that much of a difference between the three Democrats. They’re all pretty progressive, but who has a track record of getting things done?” And who is going to lower housing costs and child care costs, and who has a track record of being able to deliver babies?” Schiff told me. “The race is becoming a race between results and mere rhetoric.”
For example, Mr. Schiff constantly mentions the federal money he brought home, while Mr. Porter denounces earmarks (spending directed toward individual projects in specific districts) as inherently corrupt. She also points out that large states like California often lose proportionately to smaller states when it comes to competing for funding.
It would be a mistake to ignore the cash-strapped efforts of Mr. Lee, the only person of color among the leading candidates. She is 77 years old, energetic and intelligent, but her age is a drawback, especially given Mr. Feinstein’s incompetence during the final years of her tenure.
But over his decades in Congress, Lee can claim to have been a pioneer and often lone spokesperson for causes that are now mainstream in Democratic Progressiveism. These include repealing the Hyde Amendment, which denies federal funding for abortion, and reforming marijuana laws as a matter of racial justice.
After 9/11, Mr. Lee gave President George W. Bush the green light to launch a global “war on terror” and was the only lawmaker to vote against subsequent authorizations for the use of military force. the 2003 invasion of Iraq; Her warning that handing the president a blank check would lead to “forever wars” turned out to be her prescient, and now even many Republicans agree.
“I’ve been pushing the limits of the problem in a way,” she told me. “When I look at who will follow after I leave office, I think a lot of it has to do with leadership.”
This year will likely mark another turning point for California. In the 1992 election, both U.S. Senate seats were on the ballot due to vacancies, a first in U.S. history. Both seats were won by female candidates, Feinstein and Barbara Boxer. They became a symbol of what is now remembered as the “Year of the Woman.” Since then, at least one woman has represented the state in the Senate.
That might change if Schiff wins in November as expected, but Schiff is sensitive about this. “I think representation and diversity are really important. And I think voters consider both., And you should,” he told me. “What I want voters to consider is my track record of getting things done for California.”
What about his two Democratic opponents? Mr. Schiff said he would be just as happy if voters forgot they were there. He chose the opponent he wanted to face. It’s the other guy. He’s someone you can never win against.