In the past two weeks, the Warsaw government has unlocked the long-awaited EU recovery fund, ending a years-long battle with the European Commission over the rule of law. Prime Minister Donald Tusk, along with Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, also began reinvigorating the abandoned Weimar system to deepen cooperation with France and Germany. After a historic pro-European election, Poland once again appears to be playing a role in driving change and addressing the European Union’s lack of leadership.
October 15th, when Poles resolved to end the illiberal rule of the Law and Justice Party and entrust the future of the Polish state to the so-called October 15th Coalition of Citizens United, the Third Way, and the Left. , European leaders held their breath. A sigh of relief. Subsequently, hopes for Poland’s return as a driving force for European integration began to be expressed across the continent. Developments over the past two weeks appear to indeed fulfill such expectations for renewed multilateral cooperation between Polish and European leaders.
However, while Poles have reiterated their support for their country’s strong position within the EU and called for an end to political conflict, they have little to say about how the EU has dealt with its most important challenges. It continues to have a somewhat negative view. As recent ECFR polls have shown, the new government’s room for maneuver on European policy is limited by growing public anxiety about Brussels and its perceived inability to tackle the most pressing issues. there is a possibility.
Poles think the EU is the worst when it comes to immigration. 70% of Poles rate the EU’s handling of immigration unfavorably, with 34% thinking the EU has done a “very bad job”. Similarly, 57 percent of Poles do not think the EU’s response to global economic turmoil has been particularly competent. Climate change came in a close third, with 53% disapproving. Things look a little more optimistic when we look at the EU’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the coronavirus pandemic. Regarding her two policy areas, Poles are quite divided: 49 percent view her EU actions regarding Russian aggression negatively, while 42 percent rate them positively. ing. The EU’s response to the pandemic is the most positive, although it remains negative overall, with 48% viewing it as “fairly bad” or “very bad” and 43% approving.
What is somewhat reassuring is that the Russian invasion and the COVID-19 pandemic are the two issues that have most influenced how Poles view their future over the past decade (about 31 percent and 16 percent, respectively). percent). Therefore, although the EU’s ability to overcome challenges is generally viewed very negatively, Poles are most positive about issues that are important to them.
As expected, voters from the right-wing party duo Coalition and Law and Justice lead in levels of dissatisfaction in almost every policy area. About 80% of right-wing voters view the EU’s response to immigration negatively. But that’s not all. In almost every policy area, voters in the centre-right Third Way, which won 14% of the vote in the election, are more aligned with Law and Justice and Coalition voters than with the left or Citizens United. This shows that Europe is not only divided between the October 15th Union and Law and Justice, but also that there is criticism among those who voted for the current leadership.
Overall, the questions asked in the poll measure general sentiment, and not the verdict on specific EU policies such as the European Green Deal, the new deal on migration and asylum, or the next sanctions package against Russia. do not have. It is also unclear exactly why Polish voters are not satisfied with the EU’s actions. However, the case of Poland shows that her harmful propaganda over the past eight years about the EU’s capabilities, motives and actions is likely to have played a major role. Despite the Liberal Alliance’s victory, polling data shows that Poland has not escaped Europe’s shift to the right, and for many Poles, the EU, which is doing a good job, is no longer progressive and open-borders liberal. It is not synonymous with policy.
Despite the Liberal Alliance’s victory, polling data shows that Poland has not escaped Europe’s shift to the right, and for many Poles, the EU, which is doing a good job, is no longer progressive, open-borders and liberal. It is said that this is not synonymous with a policy.
At least, this is clearly Mr. Tusk’s interpretation, which he made clear during the campaign and reiterates now. Mr. Tusk has emphasized the need for Poland to return to Europe, but so far he has not addressed issues that best serve Poland’s security and national interests, such as issues related to immigration, the European Green Deal, EU reform, or Ukraine’s accession. Focus on prioritized solutions. It’s like a grain crisis for the EU. In his first months in office, the former European Council President has been making decisions about his and It maintains a certain distance from the EU.
Meanwhile, Law, Justice and Union still receives more than 40 percent of the vote and is waiting to turn even a small rapprochement with Brussels into an attack on the Polish state. Operating within such a polarized society, coupled with the need to pass a myriad of difficult domestic reforms, limits the new government’s ability to push for a European solution.
European countries’ expectations about what the Polish elections will mean for them therefore need to be addressed. In fact, Poland no longer has to worry about Polexit or Warsaw trampling her EU laws. Poland is definitely returning to her EU mainstream and will once again become a partner in European policy-making. But the EU’s mainstream and political centers are different now than they were eight years ago when Tusk left office. Criticisms of the EU abound, and although Poland remains pro-European, it is not unique in this respect. In the current situation, it is unlikely that we will see the integrationist push and Polish leadership that Europe so desperately needs.
The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications represent only the views of the individual authors.