Most people also believe that nuclear weapons would be used if war broke out.
Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said in a speech in January that we are “moving from a post-war world to a pre-war world”. In the same speech, he suggested that in five years’ time the UK could face conflict in multiple theaters, including Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
New data from YouGov shows that most Britons are now preparing for conflict, with 53% believing another world war is likely within the next five to 10 years.
Just 31% of Britons think it is unlikely that a new global conflict will occur within that time frame, and just 8% think it is ‘not at all likely’.
With the general election just around the corner, it is clear that expectations for war are rising across party lines. A majority of Conservative voters in 2019 (57%) and half of Labor voters in 2019 (51%) think war is likely to occur in the next few years.
Which country will be involved in World War III?
Thirty years after the end of the Cold War, the United States and Russia continue to be the top two countries Britons expect to participate in future global conflicts. Eight in 10 think the US will be involved, 81% on the same side as the UK, and a similar 80% think Russia will be involved, albeit on the opposite side.
Fewer people believe that Iran (68%), China (64%) and North Korea (64%) will be involved, all of which are in a different position than the UK.
Most Britons expect the UK to form an alliance with France (68%), Germany (63%), Poland (59%) and Australia (57%).
The results require some caution. People tend to be less knowledgeable about geopolitics, with up to 49% in some countries saying they don’t know. Similarly, many suggested that friendly countries such as Israel (17%), South Korea (15%) and Japan (13%) would take a different side of the conflict than the UK.
Who will win World War III?
Britons tend to expect the West to win against Russia and China (or both) in the most likely scenario.
If the West and its allies were to come into conflict with Russia and its allies, 44% to 13% of Brits think our country would win.
Similarly, there is a wide difference in those who expect the West to defeat China and its allies (38% vs. 15%).
If the West were to challenge both Russia and China at the same time, its confidence would diminish. A majority of people still expect the West to win, but the margin is lower, at 31% to 21%.
For each question, between 43% and 48% of Britons said they didn’t know.
Will nuclear weapons be used in World War III?
World War II ended with the dropping of atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and most Britons believe that nuclear weapons will be used in the next war as well.
Nearly six in 10 Britons (59%) think it is likely that nuclear weapons will be launched in World War III, with some thinking it is ‘very likely’19 % is also included. In contrast, only 24% think it is unlikely, and of those, only 6% think it is very unlikely.