What happens next could determine the fate of the entire world. After more than nine months of desperate fighting with Hamas, Israel may now be on the brink of total destruction.
Military action against Hezbollah, Iran’s largest and best-trained proxy in neighboring Lebanon, could trigger a war on an entirely different scale, and one that Israel would be by no means certain to win.
This war could easily draw the UK into it, not just providing arms and air support to Israel, but also potentially drawing the UK into an armed conflict with Hezbollah. Such a war would inevitably have a major impact on domestic politics in the US, which is already divided by pro-Palestinian protests.
The US presidential election is in unprecedented turmoil, but if Iran openly declares its military support for Hezbollah, the election results will be overturned, bringing us one step closer to a war that will engulf the entire Middle East.
And in the ultimate nightmare scenario, if Israel were to decide its very existence was threatened and deploy nuclear weapons, it would almost certainly lead to a global war, with Russia and Pakistan likely to be the first to respond.
Mass funeral held in Israel for those killed in Lebanese rocket attack
Thousands of mourners attended the funeral to mourn his tragic death.
This may seem alarming to anyone who has been following the IDF’s relentless military campaign against Hamas in the wake of the October 7 massacre of 1,200 Israelis.
The blow to Gaza has reduced entire cities to rubble, forced more than 1.5 million people to seek refuge in refugee camps, and given the world the illusion that Israel is invincible.
This is far from the reality. Israel is exhausted by conflict. While previous wars in the country’s 76-year history have been short and decisive, this one is neither.
Nearly 300 days into the conflict, not only does Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hardline government continue to resist international calls for a ceasefire, but the guerrilla army of Hamas fighters has shown worrying tenacity.
Israel’s failure to wipe out Hamas will no doubt unsettle Israel, and Hezbollah is not Hamas. Hezbollah is much larger than Hamas, commanding the support of at least 2.5 million Lebanese, nearly half the population.
It’s not clear whether Saturday’s massacre of 12 children in a rocket attack was intended as a signal for the start of war. It was certainly an egregious act of provocation, writes Mark Almond.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited the site where the attack from Lebanon allegedly fell on an Israeli village.
In fact, the group controls the country south of Beirut, and its leaders have been preparing for war with Israel for years, with huge funding and training from Iran.
Their fighters are not volunteers running through tunnels hiding among civilians, but highly organized, well-equipped and disciplined troops stationed in heavily fortified positions.
It is unclear whether Saturday’s rocket attack, which killed 12 children, was intended to signal the start of war. It was certainly an egregious act of provocation.
Israel has already retaliated with airstrikes on targets in Lebanon. If the Israeli response to the killing is not strong enough, there are fears that Hezbollah and its financier, Iran, will be emboldened.
But any further escalation in Israel would be a perfect opportunity for terrorists, as it would mark the start of a war that most Israelis do not want and weaken Prime Minister Netanyahu’s position. Hezbollah rocket attacks have already forced 120,000 people to flee their homes in the north of the country.
Meanwhile, in the United States, Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate seeking to succeed President Joe Biden in the White House, faces a foreign policy crisis: if she supports Israel, she will alienate Muslim voters while failing to win over Republicans. Donald Trump is 100% pro-Israel.
But for Keir Starmer, the crisis could get even worse – many Labour MPs are infuriated by his past support for Israel – and there are fears that street protests across Britain could quickly escalate into violence, particularly in cities with large Muslim populations such as Birmingham and Leeds.
And if the RAF is again sent to protect Israel from missile attack, Hezbollah could attack our airbase in Cyprus, just 60 miles from the Lebanese coast.
So many times in recent months, the world has watched and held its breath and prayed. This time, the risks are higher than ever.
Mark Almond is director of the Crisis Institute at the University of Oxford.