Luke Humphreys and Michael van Gerwen clash in the 2024 Betfred World Match Play final in Blackpool on Sunday night. Read our preview with stats and tips.
Darts betting tips: World Matchplay Final
1pt Humphreys (-5.5) to beat Van Gerwen at 9/4 (Betway, Bet365)
1pt Humphries to win, hitting 12+ 180 at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
Sky Bet Odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Luke Humphreys v Michael van Gerwen
- venue: Winter Gardens, Blackpool
- Television broadcast and start time: Sky Sports (2000 BST)
- format: Best of 35 legs. You can win two legs and then play up to five extra legs before the sixth leg goes into sudden death.
Luke Humphries will face Michael van Gerwen as he bids to become just the fourth player in history to win both the World Championship and World Matchplay in the same year – one of an iconic three to achieve this feat alongside Phil Taylor and Peter Wright.
Kohlhand has also won the World Grand Prix, Grand Slam of Darts and Players Championship Finals trophies and is seeking his fifth ranked major title in less than a year, which may soon be categorised as a dominant “era” at the top of the world rankings rather than a blip.
But Van Gerwen defied the odds to beat Luke Littler earlier in the tournament and will be eager to prove himself further by winning a fourth World Matchplay title.
Humphries vs. MVG: Head-to-head record
- Overall result: 12-13
- Televised meetings: 8-6
- All Finals: 2-1
- Televised final: 1-0
- 2024 record: 7-1 (TV: 5-1)
The fact that Michael van Gerwen has the overall advantage in head-to-head record means little when you consider Luke Humphreys has won eight of their previous nine meetings, dating back to November’s dramatic conclusion to the Players Championship final.
Coolhand also beat him 10-5 in the Premier League semi-final and then won 8-1 in the final of the European Tour event in April, so he certainly has the psychological advantage from this point of view.
2024 World Matchplay Statistics
- Tournament Average
Humphreys: 102.47
Van Gerwen: 97.99 - Average over 100 (highest and lowest match average)
Humphreys: 4 (108.76 vs Ricardo Pietrettico & 100.64 vs James Wade)
Van Gerwen: 1 (101.93 vs Luke Littler & 95.49 vs Joe Cullen) - Tournament 180 (180 per leg)
Humphreys: 30 (0.35)
Clayton: 29 (0.32) - check out %
Humphreys: 44.26%
Van Gerwen: 33.96% - Over 100 checkouts
Humphreys: 4 (Max: 164)
Van Garwen: 9 (Max: 161)
All statistical signs point to Luke Humphries also achieving the World Championship and World Match Play double.
It speaks volumes that he is likely to average over 100 in the best-of-33-leg format and, if he achieves it, he will become just the second player in history, after Phil Taylor, to achieve the feat in all five matches at the Winter Garden.
His tournament average of 102.47 may not be at the same level as what Power frequently achieved during his incredible period of Blackpool dominance, but it’s still a fine effort over this sort of distance.
The Dutch player had been far more prolific than usual in the previous rounds except for the semi-final, where he surprisingly only managed 5 legs out of 30, but his rate of 180 legs per leg is higher than MVG’s.
He also finished very poorly against Bully Boy, missing 40 of 57 doubles attempts and giving him a very poor checkout percentage for the tournament of 33.96%, while Humphries had a very good 44.26%.
The only area where MVG had an edge in 100+ checkouts was in 91 legs and nine compared to Humphries’ four from 85 legs.
To bet on Humphries to win and hit 180 over 12 with Sky Bet, click here.
Humphries vs. MVG: The road to the final
Luke Humphreys
- R1: 10-4 vs Pietreczko
average: 108.76
180s: 6
100+ checkouts: 0 (Highest: 68)
check out %: 58.82% - R2: 11-7 vs Bunting
average: 102.34
180s: Four
100+ checkouts: 0 (Highest: 90)
check out %: 39.29% - Quarterfinal: 16-10 vs Van den Berg
average: 101.21
180s: 12
100+ checkouts: 3 (Max: 164)
check out %: 45.71% - SF: 17-10 vs. Wade
average: 100.64
180s: 8
100+ checkouts: 1 (Highest: 156)
check out %: 40.48%
The story of Luke Humphreys’ journey to his first World Matchplay final was going very well, score-wise, and even when his opponents were asking him serious questions, Cool Hand managed to keep them within reach.
Once he got in the lead, his relentless consistency made him a tremendously difficult man to stop, and even a resurgent James Wade couldn’t catch him, despite his batting average of over 102.
Michael van Gerwen
- R1: 10-6 vs Littler
average: 101.93
180s: Five
100+ checkouts: 1 (Highest: 146)
check out %: 43.48% - R2: 11-8 vs Karen
average: 95.49
180s: 8
100+ checkouts: 1 (Highest: 151)
check out %: 44% - Quarterfinal: 16-10 vs Gilding
average: 96.99
180s: 11
100+ checkouts: 2 (Max: 136)
check out %: 29.63% - SF: 17-13 vs Smith
average: 98.43
180s: Five
100+ checkouts: 3 (Highest: 161)
check out %: 29.82%
Michael van Gerwen’s best all-round performance came against Luke Littler, but overall he didn’t need to perform at his best against any of his subsequent opponents.
Michael Smith will feel he missed a big opportunity in last night’s semi-final after falling short of the standards he set for himself, while MVG looked extremely likely to lose, particularly after some poor finishing.
If the Dutchman continues to play at the level we have seen so far, Humphries will need occasional rest days.
Humphries vs. MVG: Final Predictions
My absolute pick at the start of the World Matchplay was Luke Humphreys but there is little evidence he will lose at the final hurdle.
Cool Hand will once again be showing off the dominant darts that have won him every major title, including the World Championship, and it will take a special MVG to stop him in the best-of-33 leg.
The Dutchman has clearly shone brightly, but the consistency he once had – something Humphries now has in abundance – is no longer there and I see only one player lifting the Phil Taylor Trophy tonight by a comfortable margin.
verdict: 18-11