Indian elections: Modi’s divisive campaign comments raise questions

In the run-up to India’s general election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was expected to hold a referendum on his 10-year term as prime minister.

He was expected to brag about his generous benefits and accomplishments such as his space flight. He was to reaffirm that the new Ram temple in Ayodhya represents the cultural claim of India’s Hindu majority. Modi’s hosting of the G20 summit last September raised his profile and even foreign policy was expected to influence votes. Opinion polls predict a landslide victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which would be a record third time.

But early in a grueling six-week campaign, Mr. Modi’s campaign shifted gears with divisive statements that raised questions about his tactics. He has accused the opposition party led by the National Congress party of placating the Muslim minority community.

Muslims make up 14% of India’s more than 1.4 billion population. Opposition parties say social media posts by the Bharatiya Janata Party, inspired by Mr Modi’s election campaign, “demonize” Muslims.

At another rally, he warned women that the rebels would confiscate their money and redistribute it to Muslims. He accused Congress of orchestrating “vote jihad” and urged “certain communities” to unite against him. Mr Modi even said that Parliament would select the Indian cricket team “on the basis of religion”.

That’s not all. Mr. Modi said in his recent interview that “the whole world” is trying to influence the election. Mr Modi this week accused Congress of accepting “truckloads” of money from billionaires Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has long spoken of the close relationship that Modi and the country’s two richest men share.

“This is the first time you have spoken publicly about Adani and Ambani. Is it your personal experience that you know they are handing over money by the truckload?” Mr. Gandhi responded in a video message. . Neither businessman responded to comments.

India’s opposition parties have also called Modi’s comments “divisive and hate speech” and accused them of Islamophobia. Parliament called for an investigation into possible violations of the code of conduct. Hate speech against India’s 200 million Muslims has increased since the BJP came to power. But Mr Modi’s fiery rhetoric on the stump surprised many who had expected the focus to instead be on highlighting his achievements.

“To be honest, I thought Mr. Modi’s campaign would be more about the rise of India and what India has done for its people,” said Policy Research, a Delhi-based think tank. Rahul Verma of the Center (CPR) said. .

Some believe that Mr. Modi’s remarks are not unprecedented. They cited numerous such instances during his previous campaigns, including what they called his “inflammatory rhetoric” after the 2002 Gujarat riots ahead of the state assembly elections. It points out that. “So I wasn’t surprised by this, but I was shocked. We often refer to that kind of rhetoric as dog-whistling, but there’s nothing subtle about the language being used. ” says Milan Vaishnav of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

First, many say that the Bharatiya Janata Party may have been spooked by the drastic drop in early turnout in what was a fairly low-energy election. In the past two elections, in which the BJP won decisively, high voter turnout benefited the party. In 2014, it was mainly a vote against the Congress, and in 2019, it was a vote for Mr. Modi.

Second, opposition parties are trying to reshape the narrative of the 2024 election, shifting the focus from a sole referendum on Mr. Modi to campaigning on issues such as unemployment, social justice, and economic inequality.

Political scientist Neelanjan Sirkar suggests that the Bharatiya Janata Party does better in national elections when it focuses on important national issues. He recently said on a podcast that the party is “not playing its strongest game” as elections become more localized and local factors come into play.

Mr. Modi’s party is targeting 370 seats this time, up from 303 in 2019. But their rallying cry is “Abki Baal, 400 par” What the party and its allies (this time numbering over 400) were aiming for a landslide victory may have backfired. Opposition parties appear to have seized on this slogan, portraying the Bharatiya Janata Party as the dominant force seeking to win an overwhelming majority and reshape India.

“Opposition parties use this slogan to argue that if they win such a majority, the Bharatiya Janata Party will change the constitution. “It may have some traction in the clear from preliminary opinion polls,” Verma said. “This may have inspired Mr. Modi to take this narrative head-on and add Hindu-Muslim elements.”

Are Mr. Modi’s divisive statements a sign of desperation?

Not so, says Vaishnav. “For me, it’s about mobilizing his cadre and perhaps making up for his underwhelming performance in the first few stages.

“Desperation suggests that the central bank is losing, but I don’t think that is the case. Unless the central bank retains its seats from 2019 and can expand into new areas, it will not reach its new target of 400 seats. It will be difficult to achieve.”

Despite Mr. Modi’s rhetoric on the stump, he sings a different tune in a recent interview with a news network.

“I’m not anti-Muslim or anti-Muslim,” he told Times Now.

He said government welfare benefits would apply to everyone irrespective of community or religion, adding: “Social justice and secularism are Mr. Modi’s guarantees.”

Mr. Modi criticized rebel groups for using Muslims as political pawns and suggested that communities should reflect on their own situation. “Muslims need to introspect on why they feel there is a flaw within their community.” He said Muslim communities are changing around the world. “When I go to the Gulf countries, India and I are very respected. Here, there is also opposition,” he said.

Unraveling the complexities behind India’s electoral victories is always a challenge. Political scientist Gilles Bernier believes they are unlikely to win based on past performance.

“Voters rather make their choices according to what parties and candidates propose for the future, after building on past campaigns on welfare, security and nationalism and scoring points on these issues. “The BJP doesn’t have many new ideas to offer voters.’Hence, ethnic and religious nationalism is worsening,” he says.

Mr. Modi and his party will disagree. But one thing is clear. Regardless of which party gains or loses, this election has yet to emerge as an all-out wave in favor of any side. “Never underestimate the power of boredom in politics,” says political analyst Pratap Bhanu Mehta. This may explain why many say the Bharatiya Janata Party is “nervous.”