Pakistan’s chaotic elections are still far from over, but it has become abundantly clear that regardless of the outcome, the country’s dysfunctional democracy will remain intact. The same goes for other countries in Asia that have gone to the polls since the beginning of this year. These range from de facto one-party states (Bangladesh) to countries where the next president is a former military strongman (Indonesia) to vibrant democracies where the very right to exist is being challenged (Taiwan). Wide variety. What does this tell us about the state of democracy in Asia? Despite being fraught with controversy, these elections demonstrate that most countries in the region derive legitimacy from their status as democracies. This fact shows that democracy is still alive in Asia.
Pakistan’s dysfunctional democracy
Taking Pakistan as an example, parliamentary polls were held on February 8th after a long delay. Much has been said about the attempts of the so-called “establishment” (military and intelligence agencies) to pull the strings of Pakistani politics. This is evident in the arrest and conviction of Imran Khan and the simultaneous efforts to prop up Nawaz Sharif after his defection and conviction were overturned. The credibility of the electoral process was further undermined by disruptions to mobile phone and internet service on election day, which delayed vote counting further than expected.
However, this means that despite the establishment’s best efforts to purge Khan and his party (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, PTI), independent candidates affiliated with the PTI They overlook the fact that they secured more seats in the Diet than any other political party. This does not negate the troubling consequences of a runner-up government (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PML-N) leading the next government. But it shows that the establishment does not fully control the narrative of Pakistani politics.
thumbs down to the military
Moreover, despite Pakistan’s dire economic, security, and geopolitical situation, the country’s democracy is probably in a stronger position today than it was a decade ago. For most of Pakistan’s history, the military was incorruptible and respected by the people as an institution essential to ensuring the country’s stability. This shine has now worn off, as demonstrated by the violent demonstrations that followed Khan’s arrest in May 2023, including unprecedented attacks on military facilities. This reduced the military’s desire to directly seize power in Pakistani politics. Although no prime minister in Pakistan’s 77-year history has served a full term, the next government is likely to face similar predicaments with unstable coalitions, although Pakistan’s most recent elections were the third in a row. The fact that it was an election is important. It shows that democracy is more firmly entrenched.
Concerns about Indonesian ex-military personnel
In the case of Indonesia, the world’s largest direct presidential vote was held on February 14, with former military general Prabowo Subianto securing victory. Prabowo’s military career is unclear, including allegations of human rights abuses in East Timor and his status as the former son-in-law of Indonesia’s last dictator Suharto, raising concerns about Indonesia’s political path.
But this overlooks the fact that Prabowo, despite his authoritarian tendencies, has contested (and lost) elections several times and accepted the results (albeit sometimes a little reluctantly). ing. Furthermore, Indonesia’s decentralized political system and culture of consensual decision-making constrain the presidential power. There are real concerns about the state of Indonesia’s democracy, from the declining powers of the Anti-Corruption Commission to the persistence of dynastic politics, but Prabowo’s presidency alone is unlikely to solve the problem.
Bangladesh one-party state
In Bangladesh, the January 7 parliamentary elections resulted in the purge of the main opposition parties, the Bangladesh People’s Party and Jamaat Islam. Low turnout (just 40%, compared to over 80% in the 2018 election) further undermined the credibility of the polls. However, the Awami League government, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has announced that the election process will involve the participation of more than 100 election observers and around 2,000 candidates, including more than 400 independent candidates, contesting 300 directly elected seats. The very fact that it was so keen to strengthen its legitimacy is an indication of this. Efforts to maintain ostensible democracy.
Despite Bangladesh’s descent into dictatorship, Sheikh Hasina’s age (she is 76 and will be 81 by the end of her fifth term) and a clear second-tier leadership Hasina’s sister and daughter have no political qualifications (her son lives in the US, and her son has shown limited interest in the US), but they have not entered politics. , alluding to succession issues and a power vacuum in the country’s future politics.
politics of patronage
What all these elections have in common is the politics of patronage. This means that the main purpose of leaders is not to serve the people, but to appease their patronage networks. Related to this are the well-established family clans that permeate the political systems of the three countries. The Bhutto Zardaris and Sharif families have dominated Pakistani politics for decades, and until recently Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia were called Bangladesh’s “fighting begum.” Politics.
Even in Indonesia, Jokowi was initially welcomed as a political outsider, but his son Gibran Rakabumin Raka was appointed as the next vice president after the Constitutional Court, which was presided over by Jokowi’s older brother, established his own independent political system. It is believed that they are forming a dynasty. His in-laws granted him a waiver of the age requirement to serve as vice president.
fluid relationship
Political party affiliation is also fluid, as personality takes precedence over ideology. This is most evident in the case of Indonesia, where Jokowi supported Prabowo rather than Ganjar Pranowo, the candidate of his own party (PDI-P). Politicians also tend to cross party lines. Again, Indonesia is the most prominent example of this, with Prabowo joining the Jokowi government as defense minister after the two countries contested presidential elections in 2014 and 2019.
Pakistan’s constitution prohibits elected members of parliament from defecting to other political parties. However, these restrictions do not apply to independents affiliated with the PTI, leading to several defections to other parties. Imran Khan has been hailed as a breath of fresh air in Pakistani politics. But he is also a striking example of a cult of personality superseding the importance of a party’s manifesto.
Asia goes to vote
What does this tell us about the rest of Asia, where more than 1 billion registered voters are expected to go to the polls this year? Apart from the countries mentioned above, South Korea is also scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in April is. All countries in South Asia (except Nepal) are also holding elections in 2023-24, making India the elephant in the room as the world’s largest democracy. In a region as large and diverse as Asia, it would be futile to identify common threads in all these elections.
However, despite concerns about democratic backsliding across the region, there is at least a commitment in most countries to maintain democratic governance systems, even if it is primarily for procedural purposes. it is clear.
[Dr Chietigj Bajpaee is Senior Research Fellow for South Asia at Chatham House, a UK-based public policy think tank. He has worked with several think tanks and risk consultancies in the US, Europe, and Asia. He is the author of China in India’s Post-Cold War Engagement with Southeast Asia (Routledge, 2022)]
Disclaimer: These are the author’s personal opinions.