How will Trump’s victory change the global economy?

Today’s Top News

• A far-left French group is suspected to be behind the railway vandalism that took place on the opening day of the 2024 Paris Olympics.

• U.S. President Joe Biden is calling for sweeping reforms to the Supreme Court, including term limits for judges and proposed constitutional amendments to presidential immunity.

• Venezuela’s dictatorial leader Nicolas Maduro was declared the winner of Sunday’s election, but the opposition alleges serious irregularities in the results.

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Good evening.

What would a Trump victory in November mean for the global economy?

That outlook has been bouncing around in markets in recent days as the former president doubled down on the protectionist rhetoric of his first term and abandoned the free-market ideas that once defined Republican politics.

Blunt-arm tariffs, “America First” trade policies, and mass deportations that put labor markets at risk are all on the table, a departure from the liberalized trade ideals of past decades.

The EU is developing a two-tiered trade strategy and targeted retaliatory responses to any threats of tariffs within the bloc, drawing up a list of US imports that could be hit with tariffs of 50% or more. The European Commission wants to avoid a trade war that would risk making things even more expensive for ordinary people already struggling with cost-of-living pressures on both sides of the Atlantic.

A Trump victory would have multifaceted effects on commerce. Trump has pledged to weaken the dollar to improve trade terms for U.S. manufacturers selling products overseas. Analysts argue that any big swings in the value of the world’s reserve currency would have repercussions far beyond Washington.

But critics aren’t sure such a move is even possible. “The short answer is no,” says Katie Martin at the Financial Times, especially since a currency devaluation would be inconsistent with a protectionist orientation.

Trump has also won the support of the crypto community. Yesterday, he vowed to end the “persecution” of cryptocurrencies, fired the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and promised to end the “war” on Bitcoin. The Biden administration’s crypto oversight, which Trump has called “repression,” aims to protect Americans from fraud and stop them from being used to make illegal online purchases. (Harris’ campaign has since called for a “reset” of the White House’s relationship with the industry.)

Central bank independence is also at risk. In a recent interview, Trump said he would let Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell “complete his term,” adding, “especially if I think he’s doing the right thing.” This comes after earlier reports that the Trump campaign was drafting proposals to weaken the Fed’s independence. Taking a tough stance on inflation is likely to win voters’ support, but tinkering with central bank independence puts financial stability and credibility at risk, which are subject to the vagaries of political cycles.

The backdrop is a strong US economy. Second-quarter GDP figures released last week beat expectations, and consumer spending and investment have remained strong despite high interest rates. “The next president should be keen to build on the current resilient economy, not undermine it,” the FT editorial board argued yesterday.

What you need to know about the UK and European economies

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves They claim the Conservatives have left a £22 billion hole in the national finances.

The British Labour government Junior Doctors in the NHS In England, a 22 percent pay rise over two years is planned in the hope of ending the impasse that has led to multiple strikes over the past few years.

Stubbornly expensive UK services inflation The Bank of England’s interest rate setting meeting on Thursday was a tense one.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni Last year, Mr McCain promised to “rebuild” relations with China after Beijing decided to withdraw from the Belt and Road Initiative.

What you need to know about the world economy

Ethiopia The country will allow its currency to float as part of long-delayed reforms to attract foreign investment and ease chronic foreign currency shortages.

The lender West Bank Long-standing limits on the amount of money that can be transferred to Israel’s central bank mean there’s excess cash sitting in its vaults.

of Shipping Industry Geopolitical tensions have led to a surge in cyber attacks as bad actors target trade flows.

Need to know: Business

The US government has identified new national security concerns. Tick ​​tockThe company argued that it was able to collect data based on users’ opinions on issues such as abortion.

NatWest The company is suing mortgage finance company CMIS for more than 155 million euros over failed securitisation deals concluded in the run-up to the financial crisis.

Japanese pharmaceutical company stocks Eisai Shares fell sharply today after drug regulator the European Medicines Agency refused to approve a groundbreaking Alzheimer’s disease treatment, citing concerns about a rare brain swelling side effect.

McDonald’s The company saw its global sales fall for the first time since 2020 as rising fast food prices discouraged consumers around the world.

The world of work

Negotiation skills As cost pressures grow and the post-Covid economic recovery weakens, the burden is shifting back onto employers, writes FT’s Anjli Raval.

Whistleblower case Cases of unfair treatment are on the rise in the UK’s employment tribunal system, with those who raise the alarm facing serious consequences.

Is there a way back? Hitting a coworkerRenowned conductor Sir John Eliot Gardiner hopes so.

Good News

The 2024 Paris Olympics got off to a slow start with an opening ceremony held in torrential rain and resulting disruptions to the rail network, but the sportsmanship shown by the athletes in Sunday’s surfing competition served as a reminder of what the sport is really about.