From this position, it is highly unlikely that India will miss out on the semi-finals, but it is not impossible.©AFP
Afghanistan’s shock win over former champions Australia has completely transformed Group 1 when it comes to the T20 World Cup semi-finals. Following India’s win over Bangladesh on Saturday, Australia also needed a win over Afghanistan to level with India on four points. A win for Australia would have guaranteed both teams a place in the semi-finals ahead of Monday’s match. However, a spirited performance from Afghanistan, who also came close to beating Australia in last year’s ODI World Cup, means all four teams could progress to the next round heading into the final round of matches.
The semi-final qualifying scenarios for Group 1 are as follows:
India (4 points, 2 games, NRR +2.4)
For Rohit Sharma and his teammates, the formula is simple: beat Australia and the Afghanistan-Bangladesh match will become irrelevant for them.
The chances of missing out on the semi-finals from this position are extremely slim, but not impossible.
India could miss out on qualification if both Australia and Afghanistan win by large margins.
Australia need to beat India by 41 runs to surpass India on the Net Run Rate (NRR), while Afghanistan need to beat Bangladesh by at least 83 runs.
If the match is abandoned, India will advance as no other team can collect the five points.
Australia (2 points, 2 games, NRR +0.22)
Australia will first need to beat India to progress to the semi-finals, then hope Bangladesh can beat Afghanistan.
Australia will reach the semi-finals even if they lose the final match by a narrow margin.
In this case, Australia would need Bangladesh to beat Afghanistan by such a margin that the NRR of both teams is lower than Australia’s NRR.
Australia will also have a chance if their match against India is cancelled.
Australia will then need Bangladesh to beat Afghanistan or the match will be called off.
Afghanistan (2 points, 2 games, NRR -0.65)
If India beat Australia and Bangladesh beat Afghanistan, all three teams will be level on two points each.
In that case, NRR will have the final say. Australia currently have a better net run rate than both Afghanistan and Bangladesh.
If Afghanistan lose by one run, Australia would need to lose by 31 runs to have a lower net points percentage than Afghanistan.
If Australia beat India by one run, Afghanistan would need to beat Australia by 36 runs.
Similarly, if Australia wins on the last ball while chasing, Afghanistan will have to win the match in 15.4 overs or sooner (assuming a first innings score of 160).
If the match is called off, Afghanistan will need India’s help in their match against Australia.
Bangladesh (0 points, 2 games, -2.48)
Bangladesh have the worst net run rate in their group and are bottom of the table with zero points, but they still have a slim chance of making it into the semi-finals.
Australia need to win by 31 runs to surpass Afghanistan in the NRR, and they would also like to lose by at least 55 runs to finish second.
A loss or annihilation in either match would end their campaign.
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