More than three-quarters of European countries will increase their military spending in 2023 amid concerns about a possible escalation of Russia’s war in Ukraine in one of the world’s most peaceful regions, a report has found.
The 18th annual Global Peace Index (GPI) released by the Australia-based Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) on Tuesday warned that the world is at a crossroads, with the number of conflicts around the world reaching 56, the highest number since World War Two.
In 2024, 97 countries will become less peaceful than in any other year since the report began in 2008.
Wars have also become more international, with 92 countries now embroiled in conflicts outside their borders – the highest number since the GPI began tracking peacefulness.
“Over the past decade, peacefulness has declined in nine of the ten years. We are witnessing a record number of conflicts, increasing militarization, and intensifying international strategic competition,” said Steve Killelea, founder and chairman of the IEP.
“Governments and businesses around the world urgently need to step up efforts to resolve many small disputes before they become major crises,” Killelea said.
Seven of the 10 most peaceful countries are in Europe, but 23 of the region’s 36 countries are becoming less peaceful.
Sweden, which became a new NATO member in March due to fears of conflict with Russia, experienced the biggest drop in Europe, dropping 22 places to 39th, its lowest peacefulness since 2008.
Globally, eight of the nine global regions saw their peacefulness deteriorate. Both Russia and Ukraine deteriorated, while Russia and Eurasia were the only regions that improved on average over the past year.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has forced Europe to reassess its military spending levels and combat readiness, with 30 of 39 European countries recording a deterioration in this area over the past year.
“Eighty years after the end of World War II, the current crisis underscores the urgency for world leaders to commit to investing in resolving these conflicts,” Killelea said.
The report found that an increase in small-scale conflicts increases the likelihood of future large-scale conflicts, reversing the trend of the past 15 years and resulting in increased militarization in 91 countries.
“Eternal War”
As conflicts become more complex and internationalized, the likelihood of achieving a lasting solution decreases, leading to “permanent conflicts” such as the escalating conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
Armed conflict has also changed as a result of increasing military technology and geopolitical competition.
The number of countries using drones has grown from 16 to 40, a 150% increase between 2018 and 2023, making the warfare technology easier for non-state groups and smaller, weaker nations to start conflicts.
The human toll from the war also reached an all-time high.
In the first four months of 2024, 47,000 people died as a result of global conflict.
If that rate continues for the rest of the year, it will be the highest conflict-related death toll since the Rwandan genocide in 1994.
By comparison, 162,000 conflict-related deaths in 2023 would be the second highest in the past 30 years. The conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza killed more than 37,000 people in eight months, accounting for almost three-quarters of the death toll.
The report says the economic costs of conflict are significant: the global economic impact of violence in 2023 will be $19.1 trillion, or $2,380 per capita, an increase of $158 billion, driven mainly by a 20% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to conflict.
Ukraine is one of the countries with the highest relative economic costs from violence in 2023, equivalent to 68.6% of GDP.
“Conflict has a negative impact on the global economy and the business risks from conflict are higher than ever, exacerbating current fragility in the global economy,” Killelea said.