Police around the world are preparing for Eritrea’s Independence Day this Friday, fearing violent clashes could break out if disgruntled Eritreans unable to protest at home turn to events abroad marking the day the country was founded 33 years ago. Some countries have even banned celebrations.
Independence from Ethiopia was a hard-fought victory won after three decades of conflict, but the anniversary is bittersweet for some because the promised freedom never materialized.
President Isaias Afewerki has ruled Eritrea without holding national elections for the past 33 years.
It is the only country in the world without a constitution. No form of political lineage or association outside of the ruling PFDJ movement is recognised.
Press freedom has been in decline since 2001, when independent newspapers were closed and most of their editors and journalists arrested.
Hundreds of thousands of young Eritreans have fled the country, many undertaking dangerous journeys to escape indefinite military service, a fate that befalls all able-bodied men.
Through this mandatory national service, Eritrea has become one of the most militarized societies in the world.
From these Eritrean emigre groups a new form of opposition with a much more radical dimension has formed abroad.
They are fed up with the government and the splintered, exiled opposition group made up of disappointed former officials of the PFDJ.
Determined to fight against a regime they believe had driven them out of the country, they formed a militant youth group known as Bilgade Nihamedou two years ago.
Their battleground is the pro-government national anniversaries and festivals organized by embassies and pro-government communities.
Given Eritrea’s history, there are many different communities abroad, including those who left during the war, sent money home to support those fighting there, and remain proud that a new nation was born through their efforts.
Opposition activists in exile say they have faced harassment and intimidation from the PFDJ for years in the countries where they live.
Robel Asmerash, UK chairman of Brigade Nihamedou, said his allies felt now was the time to fight back.
“People are being denied the right to peacefully express their opposition,” a 27-year-old taxi driver who deserted military service in 2013 told the BBC.
Their movement is also known as the “Blue Revolution,” a reference to the blue flag that was created when Eritrea, under British rule, became an autonomous region of Ethiopia in 1952 and was later annexed by Ethiopia.
The group has chapters around the world and says no pro-government events should be allowed to take place.
Over the past year, such rallies have turned violent in Canada, Germany, Israel, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The two rival groups have attacked each other with stones, sticks and, in some cases, knives.
Tensions have risen in Tel Aviv, culminating in retaliatory attacks that weeks ago saw the murder of a Blue Revolution activist, leaving behind his wife and four children.
On the same day, a pro-government man was reported to have been seriously injured and was in critical condition in hospital.
Last week, London police released photographs of an Eritrean man wanted for allegedly storming a pro-government event at a theatre in Camberwell in December, injuring several police officers.
“The level of violence used against theater patrons and officers on scene to protect public safety was among the worst I have ever seen,” said the detective investigating the case.
“We have made 44 arrests to date for a number of offences related to the protests and are continuing to make progress, however there are still several suspects whom we need the public’s help in identifying.”
The Blue Revolution’s actions have had some effect, with Swiss authorities refusing to allow this year’s National Day celebrations to take place.
The Eritrean embassy in Switzerland said it was appalled, accusing authorities of appeasing “violent miscreants.”
The Dutch city of Rijswijk also banned Independence Day gatherings.
Robel acknowledges that things may have gotten out of hand at some events initially, but says members of Bilgade Nihamedou were also targeted.
“Initially there was no leadership to manage things and take responsibility to ensure safety. As a result many of our members became victims of violence,” he said.
“But now in every country, Nihamedou Brigade leaders are running awareness campaigns on protest laws.
“In cooperation with law enforcement, we will continue to fight back.”
Because he recognizes that it’s not just his generation that has been radicalized.
A generation of Eritreans born abroad and whose families are sympathetic to the government are also being mobilized.
The ruling PFDJ party has set up a youth wing for its expatriates, which one source there described as an “extremist” group.
Founded in 2005, the Youth Front for Democracy and Justice (YPFDJ) was created to expose “the lies spread by Eritrea’s enemies,” according to a state-run news site.
Some conscripts travel to Eritrea to participate in military training at the notorious Sawa training camp, but unlike Eritrean-born conscripts, they are able to leave the country.
Indeed, President Isaias, who has never ended his country’s war footing, introduced a new system of governance in 2017 known as the “Four Fronts of Resistance.”
- The first three fronts (Eastern, Central and Western) operate within the country and involve different regional military commands.
- The Fourth Front, nicknamed 4G after its Tigrinya initials, is organised and mobilised by Eritrean embassies and committed YPFDJ chapters abroad.
Daniel Tekrai, an Eritrean living in California, who describes himself as a nationalist rather than a PFDJ supporter, told the BBC that this envisaged the diaspora as an “economic zone”.
The 53-year-old banker said it would be a mistake to see many Eritreans abroad who send remittances out of a sense of patriotism as blindly loyal to the PFDJ.
Daniel, who has spoken out against the government in the past, said his patriotism was rekindled during the recent two-year war in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, which borders Eritrea.
Eritrea has fought on the Ethiopian military’s side in the conflict against fighters from the TPLF, the party that once ruled Ethiopia and which neighbouring Ethiopia blames for a deadly border war from 1998 to 2000.
“During the conflict, the majority of Eritreans abroad, regardless of their political views, supported the Eritrean government, military and country’s interests,” Daniel explains.
“This show of unity has skyrocketed the popularity of Independence Day and other national holidays, making celebrations even more vibrant and patriotic.”
But the majority of Blue Revolution supporters, including those who had dodged conscription, opposed Eritrea’s involvement in the Tigray war.
“In response to growing national unity, opposition extremists have resorted to violence – throwing stones, burning cars, destroying property and attacking police,” Daniel said.
He believes the YPFDJ has never engaged in anti-violence acts and blames rival camps for it.
The co-founder and chairman of One Nation, a group that advocates for democratic change in Eritrea, is determined to see the Eritrean festival thrive around the world and does not believe cancelling the festival is the answer to the actions of “extremists.”
“The solution is not to succumb to these tactics. Law and order must prevail.”
“Those who commit these crimes and break the law must be held accountable for their actions.”