Utah lawmakers are effectively moving forward with a number of budget and legislative issues, many of which are controversial. Meanwhile, at the federal level, political intrigue continues to confuse and unsettle the public, including columnists.
donald trump He is clearly the favorite to win the Republican nomination. but, nikki haley For now, her campaign continues. Both candidates have received support from prominent Utahns, and many Utah Republican women are rallying support for Haley. So, where does Utah stand in the presidential selection process at this point?
Pignanelli: “Nikki Haley is right to stay and fight. No one has the right to silence her.” — Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal
last week, jason perry According to the Hinckley Report, a recent presidential election poll of registered Utah Republicans revealed the following results: Donald Trump, 49%. Nikki Haley, 22% (significant increase from results at the end of last year); Ron DeSantis, 13%. Undecided, 17%. Although still an underdog, Haley has momentum in Utah and a chance to win.
Conventional wisdom among domestic experts is that Haley has no path to victory. But for more than eight years, the political environment has defied traditional norms and expectations. The solid predictions of the “experts” of a decade ago have been shattered by changing demographics and cultural mores. So a lot of unexpected things could happen between now and the Republican convention in July.
Haley’s conservatism and personal story are appealing to local Republicans. If Haley does well in the South Carolina primary on February 24th, she could do well in Utah (and other states) on Super Tuesday on March 5th. This will give Haley enough delegates to continue the fight.
Betting on the unexpected is risky, but the returns are usually incredible.
webb: I hope Haley stays in the race as long as possible. But her candidacy may not survive until Utah’s Super Tuesday caucuses on March 5. And the Utah Republican Party has also solidified its advantageous position against Trump by using its caucuses to select Utah’s Republican nominee. So, barring some catastrophe, Trump will be the Republican nominee and she will win Utah’s delegates.
When it comes to the president, I think Trump is the favorite to win overall. Joe Biden’s weakness. But it would be a very ugly campaign. And Mr. Trump’s abhorrent personality has angered enough independents and moderate Republicans to give Mr. Biden a chance to win.
A bipartisan immigration deal has a chance of success, at least in the Senate. But President Trump opposes this compromise so he can continue to use the border crisis against Biden in the general election. Is this smart politics?
Pignanelli: Historians debate important claims such as: richard nixon Because of this, South Vietnam withdrew from peace negotiations in order to support him in the 1968 elections. There are other examples of delicate negotiations being stalled due to electoral gains. But the issue has become so pernicious that anything that appears to be a prank can cause a serious backlash among voters for perceived perpetrators.
Immigration reform stalled early this century when both parties controlled the White House and Congress. The current dynamics plaguing this issue are immense, and the bill will likely fail regardless of the president’s politics.
webb: Fearing a confrontation with Donald Trump, Republicans are coming very close to giving him control over what happens in Congress, including on immigration. I’m sorry. The immigration crisis will worsen over the next eight months, the influx of fentanyl and other illegal drugs will only increase, and Republicans have only themselves to blame for allowing President Trump to use immigration as a campaign issue instead of solving it. It will be.
Will Utahns be angry if Congress fails to provide needed aid to Ukraine and Israel?
Pignanelli: Utahns my age and older lived through the Cold War and understand the threat of authoritarian adversaries. We support Ukraine in sending the necessary signals to adversaries who seek to harm us. We care about the Israelis because they are our loyal allies. However, most young citizens clearly prefer to direct resources to domestic issues. Hence, there is a division among voters.
webb: Personally, I will be angry if we do not provide more support to Ukraine and Israel immediately. Aid to Ukraine could fall victim to the impasse in the border crisis. And it would be tragic. Republicans have said they will not provide additional funding to Ukraine until the border unrest is resolved.
I’m all for closing borders, but my party in Congress has become so rabidly isolationist that we’re willing to risk a Russian takeover of Ukraine, increasing the likelihood of an escalating war. I feel embarrassed. Defeat of Ukraine means China will become more aggressive towards and eventually invade Taiwan. North Korea has become increasingly belligerent, unpredictable, and provocative. And Iran has expanded its proxy attacks on international shipping and U.S. forces.
All of this is certain to happen because in these rogue states run by dictators, weak Republicans are seen as unwilling to stand up and fight the evils of the world. If World War III breaks out, you can blame Congressional Republicans and Trump.
Republican LaVar Webb is a former journalist, semi-retired small farmer and political consultant. Email: [email protected]. Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist, and political consultant who served as a Democrat in the Utah State Assembly. Email: [email protected].