Democratic and Republican elites are concerned about RFK Jr.’s widening path to victory

34. This could very well be the symbolic magic number for the November presidential election.

With what is shaping up to be a three-way race between President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the question is which candidate can win more than 34 percent of the popular vote? is.

While many “experts” still rule out the possibility of an independent or third-party candidate winning the election, there is a growing sense among Democratic and Republican operatives that there is a little more hand-waving and whistle-blowing beyond the grave. It looks like it’s blowing. This is especially true now that Kennedy may be running on the Libertarian Party ticket.

That possibility has been officially flagged as outlined earlier this week on this site in an article titled “Possible RFK Jr. Libertarian Bid Makes Democrats Uneasy.” Fears are also growing for some Democratic Party operatives. And believe me, it’s not just Democrats who are very nervous about that possibility. It’s also the Republican Party.

The main reason for this is, as detailed in the article, that by becoming the standard-bearer for the Libertarian Party, Kennedy would be much more likely to be on the ballot in states including key battleground states. be.

“Hijacking the Libertarian Party voting line won’t change his chances of winning the presidency, and he doesn’t have a chance,” said Doug Gordon, a Democratic strategist. But it would make it more likely that he would play spoilsport and return the keys to the White House to Trump. ”

In Hamlet’s words, “I think the strategist protests too much.”

First, whenever a Democratic strategist or liberal media personality emphasizes that a particular candidate has “no chance,” I urge you all to go on YouTube and watch “guaranteed” in 2015 and 2016. I encourage you to listen to the long list of Democratic operatives and liberal experts who have. – There is zero chance that New York City businessman Donald Trump can completely assure the nation that he will win the Republican nomination and then embarrass Hillary Clinton in the general election.

These videos should be required viewing by all political reporters and commentators, as well as all political science majors. It’s not a question of hatred or contempt for a particular candidate, but rather what motivates voters who feel increasingly abandoned by both political parties.

As a recent example of that, and a possible template for Kennedy, let’s look to Argentina in the south, where the populist liberal Javier Millay was recently elected president.

said Millay, who campaigned with a symbolic chainsaw to reduce the enormous size of Argentina’s government. “Don’t be intimidated by political castes and the parasites that live off the state…If you make money, it’s because you’re offering a better product.” Contributes to happiness. Don’t give in to national progress. States are not the solution. ”

RFK Jr. has been spreading a similar message across the country in recent months. More than that, he has reminded voters, especially young voters, that Republicans and Democrats have essentially betrayed them and the country.

Why is that message important? Because, as Millay proved in Argentina, young voters are increasingly receptive to that message. How successful was Millais in constantly pushing that narrative? Almost 70 percent of the population under 25 voted for him. Young voters believed that entrenched elites were not only making their current lives miserable, but were wasting their futures.

Kennedy’s words and warnings are currently resonating with young voters here in the United States, where he leads both Biden and Trump.

All of this suggests some very interesting political and electoral possibilities. If Kennedy, who has “no chance” and intends to serve only as a “spoiler,” runs on the Libertarian Party ticket and not only gets on the ballot in key battleground states, but also attracts more young independent voters. What will happen if I keep pulling away? A few disgruntled Democrats and Republicans? Some polls already show Mr. Kennedy winning about 21% of the vote. With just over nine months until the election, what would happen if his approval ratings increased by just over 1 percentage point per month? impossible?

Well, “impossible” may be a much lower bar in a country where 70% of voters say they’d prefer the Democratic and Republican candidates not named Biden and Trump.

Then comes the very serious question of what happens if no presidential candidate receives 270 electoral votes. Presidential elections then leave the Electoral College process and move to Congress, as outlined by the National Archives.

As stated on the archive’s website, “The House of Representatives selects the President from among the three presidential candidates who receive the most electoral votes…”

Now, back to the magical number 34.

If Kennedy wins 34 percent of the vote, there will be tremendous pressure on the House to do the right thing.

Is it “impossible” again?

As evidence of why such a scenario is entirely possible, point to the election of Donald J. Trump as the 45th president in 2016. This scenario is increasingly worrying Democratic and Republican elites.

The next nine months are going to be very interesting and enlightening.

Political and communications consultant Douglas McKinnon served as a writer in the White Houses of Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and served as special assistant for policy and communications at the Pentagon during the last three years of the Bush administration. served as He is the author of the book “56 Emancipation Lessons from the People Who Risked Everything to Sign the Declaration of Independence.”