With tensions currently rising in the Middle East and Europe, could the two crises snowball into one world war, or what some might call World War III? Does it fit within their respective spheres of influence?
As Russia's war in Ukraine approaches its second anniversary next month and Israel's bombing campaign in Gaza intensifies, the crisis in the Red Sea involving the U.S. and Iranian-backed Houthi rebels is escalating, with many observing Sources and officials are concerned about the possibility of war in Ukraine. Regional war.
Of course, regional wars pose even broader risks. With tensions currently rising in the Middle East and Europe, could the two crises snowball into one world war, or what some might call World War III? Does it fit within their respective spheres of influence?
European views remain focused on President Vladamir Putin's war in Ukraine, as Russia leverages its scarce military resources to continue its war of aggression.
“So far, the focus remains on more immediate issues and support for Ukraine,” said Maia K. Davis Cross, dean and professor of political science and director of Northeastern University's Center for International Affairs and World Cultures. I think so,” he says.
Reportedly, nearly 90% of Putin's pre-war troops died in the conflict, and with it so did confidence in Russia's ground forces. As conventional resources continue to dwindle, some experts worry that President Putin may turn to so-called tactical or “non-strategic” nuclear weapons. A study released this week by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a Western think tank, suggests that battlefield-ready nuclear weapons could become an important means of deterring NATO in future conflicts.
Cross said that supporting Ukraine, both in terms of arms and financing, should remain a top priority for Western leaders. Support for Ukraine in the West has waned in recent weeks and months as the United States' focus has shifted to domestic priorities such as the Israel-Hamas war and border security.
Cross points out that the 2024 presidential election will also affect funding for Ukraine's war effort.
“It is a shame that Russia can continue in this way, but at the end of the day I think Ukraine has what it takes to continue this as long as it has the support of the EU,” she said. To tell. “It is really important that Ukraine does not give up in the face of this aggression.”
How do European security experts view the turmoil in the Middle East?
The Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel and the resulting war have tested alliances and raised long-term security concerns, but European officials have expressed concern about the treatment of Palestinian civilians. Cross says there are.
“The clearest statement that consistently comes out is that [of Europe] “When it comes to Israel's efforts to eliminate Hamas and the deaths of all Palestinian civilians, it's a human rights concern,” she says.
“The war in the Middle East further cements the need to consider and act on a common approach to European security and defense, thereby increasing interoperability and making financing more efficient. “This is what we're seeing across the board in Europe,” Cross says.
In addition to the Israel-Hamas war, Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, a vital shipping lane for global trade and the global economy, have gradually escalated tensions between the United States and Iran. The Houthis said the attack was a response to Israeli actions in Gaza.
This week, U.S. officials urged China to intervene to ease tensions. According to Reuters, their demands are for Beijing to ask Iran to rein in the Houthis, to whom Iran has provided “advanced drones, anti-ship cruise missiles, precision attack ballistic missiles, and intermediate-range missiles.” It is said that
Northeastern Political Science Associate Professor Max Abrams said in an interview with Northeastern Global News last week that the Houthi attack was “unprecedented” and a “highly escalated action.”
“Historically, when I think of the Houthis, I think of them as parties to a very bloody conflict within Yemen, where they were at war not only internally but also regionally.” Abrams said. “But this is the first time we're seeing the Houthis seriously trying to influence the international scene in terms of attacks on international shipping.”
Northeastern experts suggested that retaliation between the Houthis and the United States would continue for some time. But it's hard to know whether that means the outbreak of world war has been delayed.
“This is another example of how vulnerable the United States, the world's superpower, is to asymmetric warfare,” says Stephen Flynn, founding director of the Global Resilience Institute.
The United States was “in some ways caught off guard” regarding the Red Sea and the Israel-Hamas war, Flynn said. That's because the United States focuses too much on “great power” conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and China's threat to Taiwan, he said. “Our security community has limited resources,” he said, adding that “lower-level threats” like the Houthis have been allowed to go unnoticed to some extent.
He stressed that the United States “needs to focus more on the full range of threats” posed by actors large and small.
“They are essentially a hybrid actor, a mixture of terrorist and sub-state actors,” he says. “Although Hamas is recognized as a terrorist organization by the U.S. government, it has state-like power in the Gaza Strip. And similarly, the Houthis are essentially a guerrilla fighting group that has been transformed into an ungovernable place in Yemen. It has evolved into a group that retrains itself in governance.
Is the Red Sea standoff part of the Israel-Hamas war?
Flynn sees the war in Gaza and the evolving situation as “separate challenges” for now, at least in terms of how the United States is “managing” both crises.
However, this does not mean that it cannot develop into a regional war.
“The Middle East has always been described as a powder keg, but now it seems like there are many more fuses that can blow,” Flynn said.
Flynn predicts that wars in both Europe and the Middle East will strain U.S. foreign policy decision-making.
“I think one of the biggest concerns for our allies is whether the United States has staying power in both Ukraine and the Middle East,” Flynn said.
“In the Middle East, all these unknown people are playing themselves,” Flynn continues. “The United States' historic role as a dominant power to contain and check security risks is being tested, but it is not clear that we will pass that test.”